Fantasy Football & A Movie: Will AFC West Running Backs Redeem Themselves?

Posted On Thursday, July 30, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football Some of the biggest disappointments during the 2008 NFL season resided in AFC West backfields. Fantasy owners want to know: Is it time to abandon Ladanian Tomlinson? Is there too much pressure on Oakland’s Darren McFadden? The AFC West offers some intriguing running back options for the 2009 fantasy football season. Read More

Last week I covered the NFC North quarterbacks only to find out Brett Favre is staying retired-at least for now. I’m not going to go back and redo the Vikings portion of that article, but I will make a few brief comments here before we delve into the AFC backfield situation.

Rosenfels and Jackson are now in a true competition for the starting job and neither one of them have given Brad Childress much confidence. They both have their warts, but the most effective passer should win the job out of training camp. I think that guy is Rosenfels and I still think Favre winds up under center for Minnesota before the season is over. With that out of the way, let’s turn our attention on this week’s featured presentation…
Andy Dufresne - “You know what the Mexicans say about the Pacific?”
Red - “No.”
Andy Dufresne – “They say it has no memory. That's where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory.”


fantasy football
Oakland has offered fantasy owners very little in recent years. I’m not sure what the Mexicans say about the Raiders, but my friend and life-long Raider fan wishes he had no memory of last year. But he does think there is light at the end of the tunnel, albeit a long tunnel.

The Raiders possess several interesting value picks heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. The best of the lot is Darren McFadden, now entering his second full season. The 4th pick of the 2008 NFL draft finished his rookie campaign with 784 total yards and 4 touchdowns. The Raiders have a talented young running back? That’s not what makes him the most interesting fantasy topic coming out of Oakland this year.

Justin Fargas will start the season as the team’s primary running back in 2009. Tom Cable is more confident in Fargas’ ability to handle a full workload. Considering McFadden touched the ball more than 10 times in only 6 games a year ago I can understand Cable’s opinion. But factoring in Oakland’s dismal performances over recent years, I don’t understand why you would draft a player #4 overall and not believe he is capable of carrying the load in his second season. Perhaps Cable does think he can do it, but doesn’t want to put any extra pressure on the kid throughout training camp or disrupt relations with the guy who has salvaged the Raider backfield in recent seasons.

McFadden will be starting at some point in 2009 regardless of when Fargas gets injured. And when he does, Oakland’s RBBC will merely shift, rather than go away. I like the former Razorback because he is a dual threat that could be getting 18+ touches by week 8. That would likely make him a decent RB2 coming out of Oakland’s bye week, just in time to battle for a spot in your fantasy playoffs. He’ll be a nice flex option until then and will come at the price of a RB3.

“I must admit I didn't think much of Andy first time I laid eyes on him; looked like a stiff breeze would blow him over. That was my first impression of the man.” – Red


Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith are not going to take over the starting job from Larry Johnson. There are a variety of potential reasons for the pathetic campaign Johnson put together in 2008. Not one of them makes as much sense as the guy just not being interested. Remember when Priest Holmes was winning fantasy football championships across the nation? Johnson had a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. He did it to the tune of 20 touchdowns in 2005, his first season carrying the ball over 300 times.

In 2008 we were wondering what happened to the old LJ just about the time when we realized how bad the Chiefs were. Do yourself a favor and throw Johnson’s 2008 in the trash. Don’t even look at it when putting together your rankings. Why? The Chiefs were not a very good team last year and had to mold their offense around the strengths of a third string quarterback. It was a mess of a season and LJ wasn’t motivated.

Johnson is heading into 2009 with something to prove again and it might just be his career. With only 1243 carries, he’s not your typical 30-year-old running back. Matt Cassel is now the QB and perhaps most importantly, Herm Edwards isn’t on the sidelines. Edwards may have liked to run, but he did it so much the defenses knew it too. Johnson is healthier and so is the offense. A stiff breeze isn’t blowing this guy over in 2009. Just don’t get overzealous and expect Johnson to anchor your fantasy backfield. Instead consider him a strong RB2 with upside to explode for three scores once or twice during the year.

“Lord! It's a miracle! Man up and vanished like a fart in the wind!” – Warden


What happened to fantasy football beast LT, only 12 touchdowns? The guy didn’t completely vanish like a fart in the wind last year, but for Tomlinson’s standards, he certainly failed to deliver the numbers we’ve come to expect. Despite eclipsing 1500 total yards for the eighth consecutive year, Tomlinson’s YPC (Yards Per Carry) dipped below 4.0 for the first time since 2004. As a result, Ladanian lost his grip on the top spot in fantasy football.

Tomlinson may be headed down, but he is starting a lot higher than most. The recent declines of former elite fantasy running backs Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James can be reviewed when forecasting LT’s fantasy production in 2009. Alexander and James both saw their YPC dip below 4.0 in 2006. The following years, Alexander (who turned 30 that season) had a lack luster 2007, while James (who turned 29) actually improved from the prior year.

Tomlinson (turned 30 in June) has toted the rock over 500 more times (2659 carries) than James (2155 carries) had entering the 2007 season. Tomlinson started showing the times of wear and tear last season, failing to touch the ball at least 20 times in five contests while finishing the regular season with less than 300 carries for the first time in his career. Tomlinson is a very special player, but I’m not expecting a rebound in 2009 and will be avoiding him in drafts and auctions.

“I have to remind myself that some birds aren't meant to be caged. Their feathers are just too bright. And when they fly away, the part of you that knows it was a sin to lock them up DOES rejoice” – Red


fantasy football
I’m going to go out on a limb and state that Mike Shanahan has been the source of over a billion headaches endured by fantasy football owners. Denver’s backfield has always been relevant, but most fantasy owners treated the situation comparable to spending the next 17 weekends with your in-laws. So can we rejoice now that Shanny isn’t pulling the strings of fantasy owners?

Not quite, Denver enters 2009 employing a plethora of running backs. Not too mention a new head coach who spent the last eight seasons under Bill Belicheck so don’t get rid of the Advil just yet.

You will have to monitor Denver’s training camp to see how the backfield starts to unfold, but rookie Knowshon Moreno is expected to be the best fantasy option in 2009. It appeared Moreno’s team held him back in college so I’m looking forward to seeing him “escape” Georgia and go up against NFL defenses. He may not be given enough touches in his first year to become a quality RB2 but I expect him to be a solid flex option, especially when rosters tighten up during the bye weeks.

Shawshank Redemption (1994) Starring: Tim Robbins, Morgan Freeman and Bob Gunton. Directed by: Lee Tomahori

Pictures Movie Review More Info

I don’t know if people just sympathize with Andy Dufresne or if the plot develops smoothly or if it’s the sound of Morgan Freeman’s voice narrating throughout the movie, but this film captures you. It’s interesting and entertaining. Even when you have a good idea of what is going to happen you just watching how it happens. Maybe that’s why I likened this movie to AFC West backfields in 2009.

We know Darren McFadden will be the guy before the end of the 2009 NFL season, but how is it going to play out? Will Fargas get hurt or will they be in a RBBC the whole way? What happens if McFadden and Fargas are hurt at the same time? Kansas City is re-tooling and LJ is motivated again but how will the other backs be used to compliment him? Then you head over to San Diego where the brightest star in the fantasy football universe isn’t so bright anymore. The one that you could count on to lead you home to a fantasy football title isn’t the guiding light it once was. Some fantasy owners will follow the fading start whilst others seek out the next twinkling star. Denver’s backfield is going to be a “mix” but what roles will each have and how will Moreno be used?

How will these backfields redeem themselves after letting fantasy owners down in 2009? Well, it’s really just a matter of time and pressure now isn’t it?





That concludes this edition of Fantasy Football & A Movie! BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

| edit post

Targeting Sleeper WRs For The 2009 Fantasy Football Season

Posted On Tuesday, July 28, 2009 by JakeTrain |

When determining a player's fantasy value, I place a lot of emphasis on opportunity. If a player isn't on the field, touching the ball or getting the ball thrown to him his chances to produce for your fantasy squad are more limited. Over the past two years, "targets" has become a staple stat category amongst fanasty football enthusiasts. Rarely an actual category in fantasy football and not found on the box scores, "targets" refer to the number of passes thrown to a particular NFL player. Read More

If you want to gain a competitive edge in your fantasy league, you should start looking at all the data available on targets. Of course, if you have been playing in a competitive fantasy football league you are probably already familiar with this statistic. During the season, following weekly targets is easy and straight forward. But how do you use target data in the pre-season to help better evaluate NFL players prior to the season? Here are some things to consider when factoring in target data while preparing your 2009 fantasy football rankings and auction values.

Strictly going by last year's numbers isn't enough.

Ok, so we all need a place to start and taking a gander at the 2008 data is logical. CBSSports' Jamey Eisenberg provides the 2008 target totals by position and even includes Drops and Red Zone data. However, we can not just assume the data will repeat itself during the 2009 NFL season. Brandon Marshall led the NFL in targets in 2008 (despite playing in only 15 games) and 2007 but do you really think he will be atop the leaders with Shannahan gone and Orton under center in 2009? Use the 2008 data as a starting point only.

3-year averages offer more useful information as well as yearly increases. Take a look at how the data changes when changes to the offense are made (such as a new head coach, new quarterback, etc). I'll provide some of my own analysis at the end of this post but if you are seeking out target data from previous years to conduct your own research, FFToday.com offers everything you'll need (just scroll down and find it on the right side).

Ok so you have the data in front of you, now what?

When you look at the target data from the previous three NFL seasons for wide recievers you can start to see useful trends. For instance when you gather up the wideouts with at least 50 targets in each season you will see roughly the same amount of receivers with roughly the same target splits year-to-year. Below I have listed the data.

Year ( # of WRs with 50 targets-75 targets-100-120-150)



2008 (82-57-37-23-11)

2007 (85-60-35-22-9)

2006 (82-57-37-23-9)


This shows us that each year the distribution of targets at the wide receiver postition remains fairly unchanged. There is likely to be 80-90 WRs with at least 50 targets in 2009 and roughly 10 of them will eclipse 150 targets. Another peice of useful data is the average number of targets from each year's crop of WRs at least 50 balls thrown their way. In each of the past three years, this number has been 98 targets. I find this number rather useful because it tells me that the pass catchers with the most chances for fantasy production will have at least 98 targets during the 2009 NFL season.

So why go through a fancier, longer way of getting to 98 when anyone with half a brain knows more targets equals more opportunity? My rationale is simply that it serves as a starting point to determine fantasy relevant receivers, including potential sleepers and busts.

As we get ready for the 09 NFL football season, receivers like Anthony Gonzalez, Mark Bradley and Devin Hester are being dubbed potential 2009 fantasy breakout players. And why not? Gonzalez and Bradley are slated to open the season as starters in pass-friendly offenses while Hester is Chicago's default number one receiver. Does the target data support these potential fantasy sleepers?

Looking at the target data from the candidates above, none eclipsed the 98 mark in 2008. However they did manage to be on the end of at least 50 pass attempts last year and increased their target total from the previous season by at least 20. Thus, we can compare other WRs with similar totals from previous years and see how they performed the following season.

First, let's look most recently at the wideouts who would have fallen in this category heading into the 2008 fantasy football season.

Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2007 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2006:

2007 2006 2008
Nate Burleson 95 37 9
Roydell Williams 94 20 DNP
Josh Reed 87 48 80
Patrick Crayton 81 48 70
Vincent Jackson 80 56 101
Dennis Northcutt 73 45 68
Drew Carter 74 50 DNP
Brad Smith 66 14 19
Keary Colbert 67 12 27
Andre' Davis 63 7 28
Derek Hagan 58 37 6
Jeff Webb 57 4 13
Lance Moore 50 3 113

*Omitted due to injury: David Patten, Justin Gage, Joe Jurevicius, Brandon Stokely, Robert Ferguson, Jabar Gaffney


Among this group, Vincent Jackson and Lance Moore were the only ones to "pan out." Nate Burleson might have joined them, but an injury ruined his season. The rest of these guys spent more time rotting on the waiver wire than on a fantasy football roster. Perhaps the data going into 2007 will be different?

Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2006 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2005:

2006 2005 2007
Reggie Williams 92 63 60
Arnaz Battle 86 54 104
Chris Henry 76 50 46
Troy Williamson 76 52 38
Alvis Whitted 63 26 DNP
Bobby Wade 58 29 83
Vincent Jackson 56 8 80
Drew Carter 50 15 74

Omitted Due To Injury: Ronald Curry, Peerless Price


In this group Arnaz Battle and Vincent Jackson offered owners the best return on investment. However, more than half of these players failed to make the jump into fantasy football relevance. So what can we deduce as we set out on our quests for a 2009 fantasy football league title? First we need to take a look at which current players increased their target total and amassed 50 targets in 2008 but failed to hit the 98 mark.

Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2008 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2007:


2008 2007
Greg Camarillo 88 10
Steve Smith 82 14
Ted Guinn jr. 93 71
Devin Hester 92 38
Anthony Gonzalez 79 52
Nate Washington 78 55
Domenik Hixon 72 1
Rashied Davis 67 32
Mark Bradley 63 17
Brandon Jones 62 34
Michael Clayton (TB) 61 40
Jason Avant 57 33
Koren Robinson 58 34
Hank Baskett 51 22


If trends continue, two or maybe even three of the above players will garner more targets in 2009 and find themselves on the majority of fantasy rosters. However, none of the previous players heading into 2007 or 2008 who made this list AND panned out became top-end fantasy options.

Oftentimes, the pre-season hype around these types of players creates a blurred reality of what these players are likely to yield in the upcoming fantasy football season. So which players from this crop have the best chances of helping you throughout the 2009 fantasy football campaign?

As I mentioned earlier Bradley is moving into a nice situation opposite Bowe in Kansas City, but I'm not convinced he will be too much better in 2009. Bowe will be featured and Bradley won't be sneaking up anyone this year. Although Cassel seemingly did a good job of spreading the ball around in New England last year, the Chiefs don't have nearly the amount of talented pass catchers as that of the 2008 Patriots.

Devin Hester is not a #1 WR and his hands will be exposed with a QB like Cutler rocketing the ball around the field. His targets will go up by default because the Bears will have to throw the ball to someone and Hester will see the field more in 2009. Hester may be in the best position to return WR3 type numbers but when you factor in the hype and what kind of investment you will need to make to retain his services, I'm not buying the former 'Cane.

Avant and Baskett are fighting for playing time let alone, targets. Davis and Hixon have shown they can be productive, but each looks destined to be #3 or #4 on the depth chart. That dwindles things down to five guys who I think have the best shot.

Could teammates, Greg Camarillo and Ted Guinn Jr. both improve upon 2008? I'm pretty sure one of them will, rewarding fantasy owners in the process. My money is on Camarillo, who ammased 83 targets in only 11 games a year ago. If he averaged 5 targets during the five games he missed, he would have become one of the 25 most targeted NFL receivers in 2008.

I like Nate Washington, but his new team runs and his new QB doesn't take a ton of shots down the field. Washington will continue to be inconsistent and isn't likely to see a big jump in targets.

With Plaxico out of town, the Giants are forced to rely on lesser proven pass catchers this year. The G-men also RB Derrick Ward from the backfield. Eli Manning will be asked to do a little more this year, especially on third downs. Enter Steve Smith, a player who has the hands and ability to catch Eli's not-always-on-target passes. Sinorice Moss will create buzz out of the slot and Hixon will stretch the field, leaving Smith in the perfect position to see more balls thrown his way. I still like Camarillo more, but Steve Smith would be my second choice from this list.

If you have enjoyed this week's batch of Hobo Soup, don't foregt to stop by again next week! BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!
| edit post

Where Will Plaxico Land?

Posted On Monday, July 27, 2009 by JakeTrain |

I was listening to Mike and Mike on ESPN radio this morning and one of the emails Golic read proposed a very interesting scenario regarding Plaixco Burress' potential home for the 2009 NFL season. As a result, I decided to spend the next several minutes pondering the idea. Read More


As we all know Plaxico is an idiot. I won't even waste time linking out to one of the dozens of instances that validate the previous sentence. However, his attorney is not an idiot, and was able get his client's case moved back until February. The legal dance move has likely enabled Plaxico Burress to play during the 2009 NFL season. I am not going to ramble on about whether Burress should be in jail or for how long amidst this morning's latest headlines.

Plaxico Burress

What got my attention was an email read over the air proposing the idea of how the Vikings should consider signing Plaxico Burress if Brett Favre puts on a purple jersey this season. The premise being they would both be under one-year contracts and offer the Vikings a better shot at winning the Super Bowl this season. Not a bad idea if you ask me and something that should gain more steam in the coming weeks once Favre makes up his mind.

The NFC North is filled with story lines heading into the 2009 NFL season so nothing would surprise me.

So the Favre to Burress connection seems plausible but a possible downside is having a low character guy in Burress being the adjunct mentor to Mr. Percy Harvin. I view Harvin similarly to Devin Hester. Both are quick, play making, types of players who can be used in a variety of roles but each lack the overall talent of an elite NFL wideout. The Bears brought in Mushin Muhammad as a place holder and tutor for Hester, could Burress fill the same role for the Vikings? He certainly could but I cringe at the thought of someone as immature as Burress being that guy. Then again, if the Vikings don't win, and by win I mean get off to a good start as well, Brad Childress will be looking for a new job. As nice as it may sound to have Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre and Plaxico Burress on the same team it gets a bit murkier when you realize the Vikings are going to start two inexperienced players along the offensive line in second-year man John Sullivan and rookie Philip Loadholt. One weak link and the three-headed Viking ship will see their season capsized by week 10.

Thanks for stopping by BOXCAR Football. Tomorrow I'm planning on discussing how to use "target" data when preparing for your fantasy football draft. BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!
| edit post

BOXCAR Blitz: The Favre Circus Is In Town

Posted On Saturday, July 25, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Favre is (still) undecided. What else is new? The guy just won't leave the headlines, let alone the football field. As a Bears fan, I'm not a fan of the guy. However, I have always respected his talents and abilities on the field as a football player. As a marketing guy, Favre has been the center of an incredible public relations evolution: A retiring football legend…morphing into a lousy soap opera star…turned jean-wearing country boy moonlighting under the big city lights…But what happens to the hottest acts on Broadway when they fizzle out? They hit the road like a traveling circus spending their days pondering the good ole days and telling stories to anyone or any team that will listen. Read More


fantasy football

Favre doesn't have 16 games of passing in his arm...but that's exactly why he wants to join the Vikings. Don't be fooled by all the revenge talk, in Minnesota, he can put on a purple #4 jersey even if he has a gray beard and hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson. the thing about circuses is they come into town, set up shop for a little while and then leave. Hmmm, I wonder if Favre will come back just long enough to think about and then re-re-retire after baseball's World Series to dominate dessimate the headlines? Or is he just trying to add some content to the last pages of his autobiography? But hey even if he does call it quits, it just means you will see 'FAVRE' the movie in theatres near you a year earlier.

Here is a great overview of the Cardinal's top stories heading into training camp from Darren Urban. I'm planning on writing about Arizona's backfield situation soon. It looks like Hightower will be the main guy, but I'm not completely sold on him.

The Eagles officially named their successor to Jim Johnson. Don't underestimate the impact of this move. Few Defensive Coordinators have Johnson's play-calling abilities.


Vick, fantasy football, NFL
Vick has been released of federal custody and apparently has already met with NFL Commish Roger Goodell. I still think he ends up in the UFL or Canada ala Ricky Williams. Vick is another circus waiting to happen but Dallas isn't interested in adding another performer.

The Bruno Boys updated their QB rankings this week. Brady is still amongst the top tier while tier three is comprised of some of the best QB debates this fantasy football season.

Who is Mr. Indispensable on the Cowboys? It isn't who you think according to DallasCowboys.com Columnist Mickey Spagnola.

Former Northern Illinois Husky, Drew Bennett, inked a deal with the Ravens. This is a low risk move for Baltimore to bolster their receiving core.

In case you were wondering when each team is scheduled to report to training camp. And Football Jabber compiles a great list of Training Camp previews if you are salivating over the start of the NFL football pre-season.

The Bengals added one more loss to their record this week. I wonder if this decision will be find its way over to New York City where there are more than a few disgruntled baseball and football fans.

That wraps up this week's Blitz. Thanks for stopping by and don't forget you can now follow BOXCAR Football on Twitter and via RSS.
| edit post

Fantasy Football & A Movie: Gambling On NFC North QBs in 2009?

Posted On Thursday, July 23, 2009 by JakeTrain |

The NFC North QBs are an interesting crop for fantasy owners to analyze this season. Whether this field of passers will lead to more wins on the field isn’t what I want to talk about though. Can you win a fantasy football league title with an NFC North QB? This division has almost every “type” of signal caller you can find in the NFL and fantasy football. Let’s take a closer look…




“Hanging around…Hanging around…Kids got alligator blood.”

Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings - This guy has the ruggedness of Wranglers denim but how many pairs of jeans hold up for 19 years? Sure the guy is an all-time NFL great who put up over 3400 yards of passing in New York last year. But the guy has single handedly turned sports journalism upside down.

Take away the name and then look at what “Joe Quarterback” brings to your fantasy football team. He is on the down slope of his career, playing in a run-first offense. His crop of receivers has never been to a single Pro Bowl and his top wide out has never eclipsed 1000 yards in a single season. Did I mention a run first offense? How well will all those interceptions play in a ball control offensive scheme?

Only five teams attempted fewer passes than the Vikings last season. In fact, Minnesota passed the ball on just under 45% of their plays from scrimmage in 2008. “Joe Quarterback” wouldn’t rate very high on many draft boards so don’t be fooled by drafting the name. If Joe Montana wouldn’t have won you a fantasy football championship in 1994 with the Chiefs what makes you think Brett Favre can in 2009?
“You can't lose what you don't put in the middle…But you can’t win much either.”

Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Detroit drafted Matthew Stafford first overall this season to be their QB of the future. First year head coach Jim Schwatrz will ultimately decide when exactly “the future” will occur. Until then it will be popular topic in blogs and newspapers all pre-season. Regardless, what should make the Lions QB job interesting to any fantasy football manager is simply: Calvin Johnson.

One of the game’s rising stars is also one of the best targets available to any quarterback in the entire NFL. In 2008, Detroit’s mess of quarterbacks mustered twelve touchdown passes and 78 receptions to Johnson. As long as Johnson is lining up on the outside, the man under center has the ability to throw a TD pass.

Due to the cloud of uncertainty over who will start and for how long, one or both of these quarterbacks will be discounted heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. Consequently, both Detroit signal callers are long shots that deserve consideration as a backup on your fantasy football squad-especially in leagues that use deeper rosters.
“When the money is gone, time to move on.”

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – The Packers made a decision last off-season to move on from the Brett Favre era. For those fantasy owners who did the same and invested in his replacement, Aaron Rodgers, you were rewarded handsomely. Rodgers has matured to become the class of NFC North quarterbacks while earning his first trip to the Pro Bowl last season. A healthier, hungrier and more experienced offense surrounding him, Rodgers figures to remain amongst fantasy football’s best passers in 2009.

In 2008, Green Bay scored the fifth most points in the NFL, additionally the Pack placed in the league’s top 10 in Passing Yards/Game. Rodgers should be able to maintain his 2:1 TD:INT ratio and figures to flirt with 30 passing TDs.

However, if you choose to make Rodgers the starting quarterback for your fantasy football team you are gambling in the fantasy football playoffs. The Packers final five games are vs. BAL, at CHI, at PIT, vs. SEA, at ARI. I’d strongly suggest keeping an open mind and put him on the trading block later in the NFL season, perhaps following his Week 12 tilt against the Lions.

fantasy football


“Listen, here's the thing…If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker”


Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Time will tell if the Bears, Broncos or Mr. Cutler himself, were suckered into this deal and whether or not Cutler is truly a franchise quarterback, however the fantasy implications resulting from this trade are truly difficult to determine. There are not too many cases of a 4500-yard passer being plugged into a run-orientated offense. After the likes of Brady, Brees and Manning are off the board, Cutler has been one of the better quarterbacks to target in fantasy football. Now in a new offense, what is Cutler’s fantasy value heading into the 2009 NFL season? Some think it’s better than that of Rodgers’.

The short answer would be to simply state there is far too much risk and uncertainty in the player to merit the price tag he is likely to command in a draft or auction. The longer answer would include breaking down the stats and making an educated guess as to how much the addition of Cutler will help the Bears and your fantasy football team.

The Bears were among the five worst teams in the NFL on passing plays of over 20 yards in 2008, yet Cutler was among the five best quarterbacks in that statistic. A year ago, Chicago’s vertical passing game finished in the upper half of the NFL in pass attempts; even so only Drew Brees put more pigskins in the air than Cutler in 2008. The Bears’ team leader in receptions was it’s running back and its #1 wide receiver heading into this year’s training camp managed to find the end zone only three times while netting 665 yards. Fantasy owners will have to decide for themselves how much the Bears offense will deflate Cutler’s numbers and how much will Jay Cutler inflate the Bears passing attack. I will have another post exclusively on Cutler later this pre-season to help you decide!

The Final Line - Handicapping the NFC North QBs for the 2009 fantasy football season.

Aaron Rodgers 3-1
Jay Cutler 5-1
Brett Favre 18-1
Matthew Stafford 18-1
Daunte Culpepper 25-1
Sage Rosenfels 25-1
Tarvaris Jackson 80-1
Matt Flynn 100-1
Caleb Hanie 200-1

fantasy football

Rounders (1998) Starring: Matt Damon, Edward Norton, John Turturro, John Malkovich, Famke Janssen and Melina Kanakaredes. Directed by John Dahl.
Pictures Movie Review More Info


Rounders is one of my favorite movies and not because I spent the majority of my sophomore year at college playing poker. The characters are great while the plot reveals the cultural influence of poker in modern society. The lessons and experiences portrayed in Rounders and the game of poker itself can also correlate to your fantasy team.

Fantasy football is the Cadillac of fantasy sports and each season injuries and breakout performances create “swings” for every fantasy football manager. All the time you spend on the waiver wire, responding to trade offers with Christy Turlington references and making those tough lineup decisions may feel like your grinding your way to a fantasy title. It’s a unique journey every year and if things break right you just might find yourself with three stacks of high society. And if they break the wrong way there is always rolled up aces over kings!

On a side note, I toyed with the idea of putting audio clips into this post. However, I was concerned it would make loading the article take longer and didn’t necessarily feel it was worthwhile. What do you think? Should I include audio in future Fantasy Football & A Movie posts? You can post your answers in the comments section along with any other opinions on this post. Thanks for stopping by!



That concludes this week's BOXCAR Football presentation of Fantasy Football & A Movie featuring Rounders!
| edit post

The First Question You Need To Answer This Fantasy Football Season

Posted On Tuesday, July 21, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballThe very first thing I tell people to do when preparing for the fantasy football season is to ask themselves whether they want to win or just play along and have fun. It makes a difference on everything you decide to do from that point forward-at least four months out. Chances are if you are reading this blog you are probably the type who wants to win and enjoys looking for other opinions and insight as you form your own analysis of players and projections this NFL season. Consequently, if you want to win you have to make fantasy football a true hobby, anything short of that and your chances coincide exclusively with fate, luck or whatever deity you may choose to worship. Read Hobo Soup!

So you take fantasy football seriously and joined a league or three. What to do now? Do you head straight for the mock drafts? Check out the early rankings from numerous sources, maybe even compile them from all the fantasy football gurus on the web to create a handy excel spreadsheet. Do you search out articles and news stories on your favorite players and or teams? Or are you a veteran fantasy owner who already has his favorite fantasy football sites and blogs book marked and RSS Feeds added?

No matter your experience level, here are three things people underemphasize when preparing for a fantasy season.

1. Get to know your competition and start planting seeds. Whether you know the people in your league well or a total stranger, introduce yourself and start a dialogue. In leagues I have been playing in for several years and everyone knows everyone I still like to extend a personalized greeting to owners referencing last season. You just want to open the lines of communication and bury any residual hatchets while also stoking the fire. I don’t care if you are a beginner or used to compile your fantasy results using box scores from Monday’s newspaper, knowing the other owners are going to be active is essential to creating a fun and competitive fantasy football league. When you begin to put in countless hours of time to win every week the last thing you want is seeing the guy you are tied with for the last playoff spot playing a team that stopped looking at their team two weeks ago. Do your part at the start and you will have a better chance of enjoying the entire season.

2. Rankings and Cheat sheets. It would not be fantasy football without position rankings and cheat sheets, but how do you make them useful? Everyone has his or her own opinion and everyone values another’s opinion differently. I could write a 1000 pages on rankings but really only one thing needs to be said. All the rankings you see are simply data. If you are researching for fantasy football, you probably have developed your own perception of players’ value.

Unless you are going to compile rankings and run qualitative analysis on the numbers my suggestion is don’t go crazy with rankings. Take one or two sources you find respectable and form your own rankings. Then you can spend more of your time tweaking those rankings. And by tweaking, you don’t have to simply move players around each time. If you read something or an injury occurs and a player’s value rises, simply put an up arrow and short note next to their name. After a few weeks, make some revisions and move players around. You really should not have to update your rankings more than twice before an auction or draft.

3. Make preparations in your real life. Once something becomes a hobby, it has the chance to take up a great deal of your time. It may sound like overkill here but I have seen long-time relationships dwindle during a fantasy football season the same way I have seen fantasy teams abandoned by week six. It’s completely ridiculous to put yourself into a position where you cannot balance your hobby amidst your career, family and other priorities (scroll down to the second heading). Every time I say this to people, they look at me like I have three heads yet every year it happens.

Seriously folks, the first question you need to ask yourself to prepare for the 2009 NFL season is:

fantasy

Do you want to play fantasy football for fun and amusement or do you want to win your league championship?
| edit post

ADP And Auction Values

Posted On Sunday, July 19, 2009 by JakeTrain |

To help you better prepare for the 2009 fantasy football season, BOXCAR Football links straight out to the latest ADP and Auction Value data provided by MyFantasyLeague.com!



2009 Fantasy Football Data

Updated ADP



Updated Auction Values



| edit post

Introducing 'BOXCAR BLITZ'

Posted On Sunday, July 19, 2009 by JakeTrain |

August is almost here and NFL training camps are just around the corner. It also means the fantasy football season is upon us as players battle for roster spots and NFL team depth charts are sorted out. Additionally, the fantasy football community begins its own preparation for the 2009 campaign. BOXCAR Blitz will simply take a look around the web and find out what others are saying about the NFL and the buzz surrounding upcoming fantasy football year. Read More


fantasy football NFL

ChicagoBears.com senior writer, Larry Meyer, offers his take on whether Devin Hester can truly develop into a #1 WR in 2009.

If you are a fan of the AFC North, Mike Duffy at BaltimoreRavens.com has a nice divisional update compiled.

The latest on Brandon Marshall.

Why Dick Jauron wanted to sign a veteran third running back and Lynch's workload.

Zac Johnson at ClevelandBrowns.com provides his preview of Cleveland’s wide receivers.

On the lighter side of things, take a quick look at the Top 50 Miami Dolphins quotes of All Time courtesy of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. (I like #3 myself)

A nice interview with Jerry Rice by the Star Tribune.
| edit post

BOXCAR Football On Technorati

Posted On Saturday, July 18, 2009 by JakeTrain |

BOXCAR Football has been submitted to Technorati. This should help this fantasy football blog's exposure to all the NFL fans! Hope you enjoy the weekend!

Add to Technorati Favorites
| edit post

Introducing 'Fantasy Football & A Movie'

Posted On Friday, July 17, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football NFL
Alright, just another step towards getting things underway for August. In the coming week(s) we will introduce the featured posts that will run throughout the fantasy football season. Today, BOXCAR Football would like to introduce: Fantasy Football & A Movie. Read More

I know this isn't exactly a new concept but I have been trying to think of new, fun ways to bring you fantasy football content for the 2009 NFL season. Fantasy Football & A Movie will bring you the content one would expect in a fantasy football article written with the theme of a particular movie. I'm hoping it adds a little bit of fun and flavor to keep you coming back to BOXCAR Football throughout the season. I've already written the first "pilot post" and am hoping it will be received well when it's officially posted next week. I'm not sure if this will be a weekly or bi-weekly post, but it will certainly be a regular post.

Thanks for stopping by BOXCAR Football. I'm just getting this blog rolling along for the 2009 fantasy football season and would appreciate your opinions and comments! If you don't want to miss out on any of the upcoming content, you can also subscribe to my feed over on the right.

.
| edit post

Romo Dumps Jessica Simpson To Achieve Fantasy Football Greatness?

Posted On Wednesday, July 15, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football nfl
Some traditions can't cut it I guess. What used to be one of the few football highlights on recent Thanksgivings is no more. After enduring a Detroit Lions football game and feasting on turkey, the sight of Jessica Simpson in her pink Tony Romo jersey went well with dessert-especially if you had a Titans RB in your fantasy football starting lineup. But all the fun is over now since Romo officially dumped Simpson in what is one of the most riveting news stories impacting fantasy football this off-season. Read More

Ok, so maybe its not that big a deal but Romo has shown he can be a top five quarterback for your fantasy football team. We've all been there, the backlash a new girlfriend can have on the rest of your life is not to be understated. In Romo's case, it was magnified by the celebrity status' involved and their very public profile as a couple.

So is Romo going to be refocused on his craft? Will he spend more time throwing passes to Roy Williams in training camp? Perhaps. But what is probably more likely is that Romo finds himself another girlfriend. The question is, will he learn from his experiences with Jessica Simpson and pursue a woman of lesser celeb appeal or will he stir the tabloids with another high profile fling?

Fantasy wise, there is an impact here. The guy went from Eastern Illinois University to dating Jessica Simpson...oh and somewhere along the line he went from third string backup NFL quarterback to starting for the Dallas Cowboys. Romo needs to find the right balance between his personal and professional life as he forges on in his quest for true love. If he can mature in his off-field life it will lead to more maturing in his on-field life, in turn leading to a return to the fantasy football elite.

43gw2b5skx

| edit post

Introducing Fantasy Football Weekly Post: Hobo Soup

Posted On Sunday, July 12, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football NFL

BOXCAR Football will feature several featured posts each week. The content and theme of each post will discuss one particular aspect of fantasy sports, NFL players or fantasy team management strategy.

In the coming weeks we will introduce these featured posts as we prepare for the 2009 fantasy football season. Today, BOXCAR Football would like to introduce: Hobo Soup.



Hobo Soup will discuss unique and interesting developments in the world of fantasy football. As the NFL schedule plays out, injuries, news and stats begin to pile up; impacting the fantasy football manager. Touching on a variety of fantasy football topics and statistical observations, Hobo Soup will offer readers a tasty weekly offering for your fantasy football palate!
| edit post

Advertising Information

Posted On Tuesday, July 07, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football NFL
If you are looking for an efficient, cost-effective marketing channel to promote a product or service, build consumer awareness or accentuate brand appeal you have come to the right place!

The fantasy sports industry has grown ten fold over the past three years alone and boasts one of the fastest growing online communities. Fantasy football's parallel with the NFL season allows for structured weekly content catering to the powerful 18-34 year old male demographic. The continuous need and desire for DAILY information specific to fantasy football is exactly why BOXCAR Football was created.

BOXCAR Football offers its readers and subscribers insight, analysis and strategy throughout the fantasy season. Serving the needs of beginners, but also providing perspective keen to the fantasy football expert, the content on BOXCAR Football generates loyal readership. Still in its infancy, advertising rates are a fraction of similar "main stream" fantasy football related web sites and blogs.

Want to become an official BOXCAR Football Sponsor today? Just send me a short descriptive email with contact information at thejaketrain@gmail.com! Or give AdToll a go!
| edit post

Looking For Contributors

Posted On Monday, July 06, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football NFL
Just sitting around with nothing to do? Have a passion for the NFL? Think you know more than everyone else when it comes to fantasy football? I am currently seeking a few more contributors for BOXCAR Football!


1. Writer(s) Provide one post each week throughout fantasy season.

2. Guest Writer(s) Provide posts throughout the entire fantasy season, inlcuding pre-season.

3. Promoter/Developer(s) help promote blog, develop HTML, graphic and web design



Contributors are not paid at this time. If interested in helping out for the 2009 season let me know today by emailing thejaketrain@gmail.com!
| edit post

BOXCAR CONTRIBUTORS

Posted On Sunday, July 05, 2009 by JakeTrain |


Just a little more information on the contributors here at BOXCAR football.

(Others will be contributing to BOXCAR Football this fantasy season. They too will be included in this section in the near future!)


BOXCAR Football Contributors

Jake Train is the creator and founder of BOXCAR Football. A Chicago Bears fan, he has been playing fantasy football since 1998. Jake is passionate about fantasy sports, following the NFL, writing and good food. He is also a contributor for FFToday.com.


| edit post

Hiding text Within a Post

Posted On Sunday, July 05, 2009 by JakeTrain |

I am simply trying to hide text from the main page. This text should appear however the following text should be hidden. I am simply trying to hide text from the main page. This text should appear however the following text should be hidden. I am simply trying to hide text from the main page. This text should appear however the following text should be hidden. I am simply trying to hide text from the main page. This text should appear however the following text should be hidden.



This is the hidden text portion. It should not be viewable from the Main page. It should only be viewable from the 'read more' function of this template. There should be a 'READ MORE' tab to click to view this section of text.

This is the hidden text portion. It should not be viewable from the Main page. It should only be viewable from the 'read more' function of this template. There should be a 'READ MORE' tab to click to view this section of text.
| edit post

Training Camp Information

Posted On Sunday, July 05, 2009 by JakeTrain |



Getting ready for the season early? Want to know when and where your favorite fantasy football players will be training this summer?

Find Training Camp information on every NFL team click here!
| edit post