BOXCAR Football

Summer And NFL Football

Posted On Tuesday, June 15, 2010 by JakeTrain |

Workouts and mini camps, off-season football is out and pre-season football is in. The summer promises to provide fantasy owners with plenty of exciting developments and player news leading up to fantasy drafts. However, sometimes we have to differentiate between the NFL fan and the fantasy owner inside each of us. READ MORE

Chicago's Backfield

What is the value of this former top-five fantasy pick for 2010? I don’t know. RB Matt Forte’s value is in flux and it’s going to stay that way for the foreseeable future. There are tons of question marks surrounding the Bears’ offense and Forte has even more questions to answer individually.

There is too much uncertainty for me to monitor this battle in hopes of landing Forte or Chester this season. I’ll probably be on the sidelines when Forte and Chester are called on fantasy draft day 2010, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be interested as a NFL fan. This battle isn’t about a mere split in carries, it’s about how the running back will be used in the offense and how effective the entire offense is in general. This is a situation in which you have a traditional run-heavy offense being managed by a guy known for his passing attack. In a vacuum, it’s as polish as the city’s inhabitants.

Tightends

Having rode Dallas Clark in my most significant and PPR league a season ago, I’m not trying to under appreciate the position. Having the best TE in fantasy football gives your fantasy squad a clear advantage every week of the season sans his bye week. In 2010, there are so many useful TEs to choose from that it makes little sense to invest much into the position. In fact, in 12-team and shallower leagues you might be able to treat the position like a defense and just stream weekly, playing the match ups.

I’m not that old, but I’m guessing the NFL has not had this much talent at the tight end position in quite some time, if at all. You’ve got young guys who have broke out in Vernon Davis and Brent Celek, young guys who are on the verge of breaking out in John Carlson and Jermichael Finley. Tony G is still a treat to watch and I just know one of Jason Witten, Heath Miller or Greg Olsen is going to have a great year. What’s that you say? Carson Palmer has a tight end now? Perhaps in no other position can you see just how much NFL football has evolved in the past decade or two.

Young QBs Who Were Handed The Keys To The Offense

Some have been around longer than others but each starts the 2010 season as the undisputed starter for their respective team for the first time in their careers. Guys like Josh Freeman, Matt Leinart, Kevin Kolb and Sam Bradford. I’m very interested to see how the next crop of quarterbacks performs. Can Freeman and Bradford fill giant voids and solve their team’s quarterback problems? No longer hidden in the shadows of their predecessors, Kolb and Leinart lead their teams into new eras not just new seasons. Nevertheless, the fantasy owner in me will not be baiting my fishing pole in hopes of landing one of these signal callers on draft day.

Outside of Bradford, they have all shown flashes of the abilities needed to take their game to the next level. The most talent of the bunch, coaches included, surrounds Kolb but he plays in the toughest division of the four. Leinart will be throwing to Fitzy but the other team knows that too and the Cardinals are becoming more run-orientated. Can Freeman’s legs get it done as a top twelve fantasy QB if nobody can catch the deep ball? Meanwhile, Bradford is looking at a season of on-the-job-training with a unit that has less talent than most in the league. I’m not expecting total failure here, but I am expecting learning curves. Those learning curves could take four or more weeks to overcome, potentially making them a detriment to at least one third of your fantasy season.

Be mindful of when to wear your fantasy decoder glasses this summer. Like a day out in the sun, too much exposure can lead to unwanted results; too little exposure and you won’t enjoy it!

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Cup Champs Offer Plan For Fantasy Success

Posted On Thursday, June 10, 2010 by JakeTrain |

Champions are champions, whether hoisting the Stanley Cup or whatever passes for a trophy in your fantasy football league. For the astute fantasy football GM, however, much can be gleaned from the Blackhawks’ triumphant run through the NHL Playoffs. READ MORE

Breaking Down A Winner

The path to Lord Stanley is not an easy one. Similar in many ways to a fantasy football season, the NHL Playoffs offer up weeks of ups and downs. The demands and pressures Chicago felt during their run is not that different from the ones you will endure during the 2010 fantasy football season. You don’t have to love hockey to appreciate a championship team.

Overcoming Adversity And Injury

I’m starting with this one because it’s the most intangible attribute a fantasy owner can learn. I have always argued that luck is one of the most significant factors in fantasy football. Luck comes in two forms, good and bad. Since hiding from luck isn’t an option, the next best thing is to understand it’s all part of the game.

If you watch any sports lately, not just hockey, I’m sure you can find a missed call or two. It happens. Phantom calls are everywhere. For the Blackhawks, they dealt with them and persevered.

Tomorrow’s debut of the A-Team movie couldn’t sum it better, “I pity the fool who cries when his or her fantasy team is hit by a freight train of injuries and unforeseen bad luck.” It can happen to any team, including yours. Luck has a way of evening out so the more you play through the misfortune, the closer you are to flipping the coin in your favor. If Chicago’s Duncan Keith can lose a mouthful of teeth and come back determined to win, you can too.

Line Depth

You can win with a stars and scrubs team if the above mentioned luck meter tilts in your favor most of the way. The better way to go in my opinion is set yourself up with the best chance to win each week by fielding a strong deep team capable of matching up every week.

Throughout the entire playoff run, Joel Quenneville did as good a job as you will ever see at getting the guys he wanted on the ice. It cost them a few goals and even a win as they got caught in a line change, but in the end it proved to be advantageous.

As a fantasy football owner, having quality options allows you to play the best matchups each week and ultimately increase your team’s ability to put up higher point totals on a weekly basis. A star player can get you to the playoffs, but one bad game in week 16 could cost you a title if the rest of your team can’t score.

Shots On Goal

Patrick Kane’s series clincher in overtime was a puck thrown at the net more than it was a shot. Throwing pucks towards the net creates more scoring chances. Every team that simplified their game plan to highlight this philosophy found success. It didn’t always lead to wins, but it led to more goals being scored. The more chances you have to score the more likely you are to score.

In fantasy football scoring chances equates to touches. When a player touches the ball he has the ability to score points for your beloved fantasy team. If there is any stat you want to follow along throughout the season it is touches and targets. In this case, more is better.

This also applies to speculative player additions and handcuffs. There is no guarantee a backup will see the same touches or targets as a team’s number one option. A team that loses it’s top RB is just as likely to throw the ball more as it is to hand the ball to it’s second best ball carrier. When filling out your roster, look for players who have the best chance at getting maximum touches or targets if the guys above them on the depth chart miss time.

Changing On The Fly

This might be the hardest skill to master and quite frankly I am not even sure you can actually master it. I’m talking about the ability to know when to stop relying on something that has been working extremely well and make a change. We’ve all heard the expression, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The problem we face as fantasy owners is that the more success we have with something the less likely we are to feel it is broken. If we don’t feel it is broken them we subscribe to the adage and refrain from fixing anything. Our confidence in players can blind us to identifying the parts that are broke.

Remember what I said about line depth? The Blackhawks began the Stanley Cup Finals using the same line combinations that got them there. Philly smothered Chicago’s best scoring line in the opening games of the series and ultimately got themselves back into the series because the best players weren’t scoring. The ‘Hawks were blinded by the past production from that top line and kept running them out there. Once they realized something was broke, they fixed it. They one decision led to more offense from the entire Blackhawks team.

Sometimes fantasy owners do have to bench their best players against good teams. Sometimes fantasy owners do have to trade away their best player because their roster resembles a M.A.S.H. unit. How do you know when to sell high or buy low? It’s the toughest skill to master, but when you fix the problem at the right time, it can make all the difference in your 2010 fantasy football season.

Preparation

Last but not least is preparation. More specifically, using your experiences from previous years to steer clear of previous pitfalls. If you don’t think the young Blackhawk players learned a thing or two from last year’s loss to the Detroit Red Wings in the Western Conference Finals you are mistaken.

Experience is a big deal; it makes us more knowledgeable fantasy football owners. What are people looking at first when evaluating players in 2010? They are looking at last year’s performance. We always look to the past to help us find success in the future. It’s not just in constructing fantasy football player rankings; it’s in preparing for your draft, communicating amongst your league mates to broker a deal and identifying your opponents’ biases.

When you spend 17 weeks slaving over a fictional team of professional players, you inevitably learn a thing or two. You learn how to balance your fantasy sports addiction with the rest of your life and you learn how to be better at playing the game that is fantasy football. You learn that the only way you can win a championship is to be even better the next year.

Congratulations to the 2010 Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks!

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Really Early 2010 Fantasy Football Stockwatch

Posted On Thursday, June 03, 2010 by JakeTrain |

It may only be June but some players are already being evaluated as "breakout candidates" for the 2010 fantasy football year. After taking a quick look around the league, I have gathered up a few players who might fall into that category and more. READ MORE

I ended each heading with a '?' because it is almost too early to start judging players. Yet early rankings are already out, and mock drafting has begun! My opinions might change by the end of the summer but why not dust off a few of the perceptions I'm carrying into 2010?

Attractive Investments?

Dwayne Bowe – Bowe falls into the category of guys I have always liked but never seem to roster. This year it looks like the Kansas City offense has better talent to keep defenses honest. Consistent targets should make him a pretty steady producer in 2010. When you apply the discount he'll likely receive on draft day, Bowe becomes a nice value play.

Michael Crabtree – Character aside, Crabtree is one of the most gifted young wideouts in the league. Alex Smith has matured and the ground game should create plenty of play-action opportunities for Crabtree to exploit. Even in a run-orientated offense, I expect Crabtree to show us some razzle and dazzle when the ball is thrown his way.

Steve Smith (Car) – I’m expecting a ton of receptions from the quick-footed Smith in 2010 so PPR leaguers might want to bump him up a few spots. I love receivers with big RAC potential that receive a ton of targets. Not only does Smith provide that, he’s a tough, wily veteran and doesn’t take any plays off.

’09 Dividends Too Tough To Match?

Cedric Benson – I admit I have some bitterness towards this guy (being a Bear fan). I just question his ability to produce under a heavy workload as well as the chances he receives the same kind of touches in 2010. File him under "I'll gladly let him prove me wrong (again)."

Jay Cutler – This one has more to do with expected '09 dividends than the ones his owners actually accrued, however the Cutler is still perceived to be amongst the better quarterbacks to own after the top three to five are gone. Mike Martz has to get the Bears’ young receiving corps to run great routes. Then he has to get a quarterback who lacks confidence in those receivers to throw it through a window to a spot on the field where those receivers should be by the time the ball is there. I’m hoping like crazy they can make it work, but I’m more than a little skeptical.

Greg Olsen – This one is more about the position than the player. More often than not there will be a fantasy owner in every league who feels the offensively gifted Olsen will be successful in a Mike Martz offense. That’s a chance I won’t be taking with plenty of cheaper options this year. The difference between the 5th rated TE and the 12th rated TE will be far less than you'd expect in 2010.

Holding Their Value?

Jerome Harrison – Don’t sell this guy short, but be careful to pay attention to the news coming out of Cleveland during training camp. Harrison was a beast for fantasy owners down the stretch last year but his role in the 2010 Cleveland Browns offense is not cemented.

Steven Jackson – It’s almost a travesty to even have to mention Jackson’s name here. Let’s face it, touchdowns are king and Jackson proved last season that St. Louis can experience droughts at times. I'm seeing a beast of a running back with just as much chance of scoring 15 times as he does scoring 5 times.

DeAngelo Williams – Chances are Williams’ 2009 owners will steer clear of him in 2010. Considering that his backfield companion had more carries in 2009, they won’t be the only one who is skeptical on draft day. I understand dropping him down the board a few slots, but don’t go overboard and forget he is a RB1.

Wild Cards?

Ladanian Tomlinson – A decline in 2009 was not hard to predict but the level of decline was certainly debatable. He heads into 2010 with a reduced role. Will that reduced role keep his legs fresh to make him a great flex play most weeks or will it lead closer to his retirement? At the end of the day, he has name recognition and that will probably prevent him from sliding too far in the minds of your fellow fantasy competitors.

Steve Slaton – I’d have to say this was the biggest bust of the 2009 fantasy football season. He is too talented and too young for the Texans to just give up on him and neither should you. The fumbles need to be solved and his confidence needs to be reparied. I’m reserving judgment on him until at least week 2 of the pre-season.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Blitz: Wisenhunt To Call Plays Again

Posted On Friday, May 28, 2010 by JakeTrain |

I’ve rounded up a few links from around the NFL and fantasy football community to digest over the holiday weekend. Thank you to the brave men and women who have fought and continue to defend our homeland! READ MORE

It looks like Arizona HC Ken Wisenhunt will be calling the offensive plays again in 2010. The departures of WR Anquan Boldin and QB Kurt Warner combined with the play of last season’s rookie RB Beanie Wells should lead to more balance attack from the redbirds. Arizona rushed the ball only 365 times during the 2009 regular season, less than any other team in the NFL.

One of the more intriguing position battles to keep an eye on this pre-season will be in Texas where Jacoby Jones is trying to unseat Kevin Walter as the team’s #2 WR behind Andre Johnson. Jones has impressed HC Gary Kubiak early in in OTA’s and could become a low end WR3 for fantasy owners by draft day.

The Lions are reportedly going to take a look at LB Keith Bulluck. Bulluck played for Detroit HC Jim Schwartz in Tennessee and is coming off knee surgery.

Torry Holt will try to become the latest aging veteran to blossom into a useful role player on the Patriots in 2010. Holt’s experience and route running should help the Pats overcome the loss of Wes Welker and help mentor the younger receivers on the team.

Cornelius Griffin and E. J. Henderson are ahead of schedule in their respective recoveries from injury. However, both defensive starters remain questionable to be ready in time for the start of training camp.

Have a safe holiday weekend!

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Baggage Claims

Posted On Thursday, May 27, 2010 by JakeTrain |

Each year fantasy owners must decide how much luggage they want to tote onto their 2010 fantasy football rosters. Before that can be done, we must first understand what “baggage” really means in fantasy football. READ MORE

What Is Baggage?

The concept of “baggage” is not new, but it’s meaning has progressed. Baggage is an umbrella word to collectively combine the history, track record, health concerns, etc. of each player into one lump sum. The sum then becomes a simple variable in our analysis of players each year. Every player has baggage in fantasy football-even the rookies.

Today, more than ever, blogs, tweets, text messaging and the rest of the online sharing capabilities are giving you the fantasy owner more access to player information than ever before. This evolution requires fantasy owners to learn the skill of sorting through the abundance of information. Everyone has always had an opinion, but now everyone is able to voice those opinions to the masses with relative ease.

Where To Claim Baggage?

One of the most wonderful things about having so much information at our virtual fingertips is the ability to choose how to use it, if at all. Having such a large selection allows you to narrow you choices to those you deem the most valuable and informative to serve your own fantasy football needs.

Under the big umbrella are two main types of baggage: factual-based and opinion-based. Factual-based materials are usually rooted in statistics and player news. Opinion-based resources are typically authored works such as blogs, message boards and articles scattered on fantasy football themed web sites. Educating yourself on the type of information you personally seek and where to find it requires a small investment of time in the beginning but saves time during the season. When set up properly, search engines, bookmarks and RSS readers combine to provide a powerful tool in sorting through all the baggage quickly and efficiently.

Baggage Comes In Many Shapes, Sizes

More often than not, we use baggage to solidify our preconceived perceptions on a player. We never set out to do this, but subconsciously we do it to a fault. The more we want to like a player, the more likely we are to overlook any “baggage” that comes with that player. You do it when dating in high school and you do it in fantasy football. It’s only human, but you need to understand this going in or your biases towards players will lead you astray!

Baggage is just one word used to depict perception in fantasy football. When the term ‘baggage’ is attached to a particular player’s name it is generally considered to be negative in nature. Yet the word ‘upside’ is generally viewed as a positive endorsement. Which words do you use when describing a player? Which words do your opponents use? An observant owner may be able to draw insight into how their competition values certain players just by listening in casual conversation or reading emails. That is also why it is important to pick your own words wisely when talking about players in the pre-season-especially in leagues comprised of intelligent fantasy footballers.

Sometimes the same word can be used when discussing “baggage related” items in both positive and negative outlooks. In breaking down a generic RBBC one might say, “as long as RB2 is there to steal carries away from RB1 his upside is limited.” One could also say, “RB2 may be stealing carries from RB1, but RB1 is still getting more touches around the goal line, giving him more upside than RB2.” Same RBBC, yet each statement provides a different perspective on the players involved and respective ‘upside.’ Even in fantasy football, one man’s trash can be another man’s treasure.

Words like “love” and “marketing” are used commonly yet express a vast number of meanings. In fantasy sports, “baggage” is no different.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Planning Starts Now For Draft Day

Posted On Friday, May 21, 2010 by JakeTrain |

Football season is revving up the engines and die-hard fantasy football enthusiasts are already inhaling every mock draft, list of rankings and position battle news they can find. It may be on the early side for planning your 2010 fantasy football roster but it isn’t too early to start planning the perfect fantasy football draft! READ MORE

If you have never been a fantasy football commissioner, you probably don’t realize the amount of planning and preparation that goes into staging one of the most enjoyable-and often memorable-times an “adult” can have annually: his/her fantasy football draft. To help make this occasion a success, fantasy football commissioners should start planning now.

Hurdle number one is always getting everyone in the league in the same place at the same time. Fantasy football is never going to trump most real life responsibilities for most of us so the best way to ensure you will have time for a fantasy football draft is to simply plan it early. As someone who has been in this position, it’s far easier said than done.

There are two ways to take on this challenge. The first way involves setting the time and date before filling the league. In doing so, you can simply fill the league with people who are available to be a part of the draft. If there is a conflict, you just keep looking before filling the spot. This method requires some time, which is why you should start sooner than later.

The second approach and probably the more common in leagues where most members are returning from previous patronage, is to conduct a quick survey. Talk to your league’s members and find out what dates are absolutely in conflict with their schedule. Also find out any preferences to location and potential budgetary concerns each member may have. Once this information is gathered, use it in selecting the best time, date and venue to hold your league’s draft. Providing these details to your league in late May and early June gives them enough time to plan accordingly and be in attendance.

Lastly, I want to mention draft proxies. A proxy is someone who essentially represents the owner of the team and drafts in their absence. Using a proxy works as often as it fails. Regardless, make sure everyone in the league is aware of the situation prior to the draft. If a proxy is to be used, make sure the entire league knows who the proxy will be and has time to voice concern or veto that person’s involvement. I’m not against using a proxy when needed, but I would express caution to any commission in handling these situations as it can lead to problems at the draft and throughout the season.

Rules of Thumb For Draft Planning

Plan early. You should be sending out reminders, not invitations in the weeks leading up to your draft. Make sure EVERYONE is planning early, not just you. One bad egg can make the whole room stink on draft day!

Better to have more room than not enough. I hate walking into a draft and finding myself having to cover up my rankings like a 4th grader taking a math test or worried about spilling my drink across the keys of my laptop because there isn’t enough room to work.

Extra seating and tables. Along with having plenty of room, being prepared to accommodate more people and their needs not only makes life easier but also makes everyone happy!

Electrical needs and equipment. If needed, who is bringing extension cords and/or power strips, internet routers and/or wires and if you are having it at a local eatery be sure to find out if you need to tape down wires and cords prior to the draft.

Non-participant support. Most commissioners also have a team to draft. If you think you are going to run the event as well as draft a championship caliber team you better have a horseshoe nearby! Find some nice people to lend a hand and don’t forget they need to know as early as possible too!

Draft etiquette. Expectations should be discussed and understood by EVERYONE involved with the draft. Everyone runs with different crowds and has differing views on what “happens” at a fantasy football draft. Make sure league participants are on the same page in terms of what the draft should be regarding food, smoking, beverage, language, are girlfriends/boyfriends/children allowed etc.

Be committed. If you are the commissioner and tell your league the draft will be live, the time and energy you put into making it happen falls under your duties as commissioner. If you don’t have the desire and passion to make a live draft successful, use an alternative style of draft.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Campbell Switches Coasts

Posted On Tuesday, April 27, 2010 by JakeTrain |

Quarterback Jason Campbell hasn’t lit up the fantasy football world in recent years, but he has always been a nice “match up” play against weaker defenses. Will his move to the left coast boost his fantasy stock in 2010? READ MORE

Campbell reminds me a little of Byron Leftwich in that he seemingly kept his job despite posting very modest production season to season. However, he might just lead the Raiders back onto the fantasy map.

Campbell has seen plenty of playbooks and defenses, which should help him overtake Kyle Boller, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye and the infamous Jamarcus Russell for the starting gig in Oaktown. He has a chip on his shoulder and expects to be the starter. The Raiders brass will stay politically correct in telling everyone it is an open competition but the reality is that Oakland can’t afford to lose football games in 2010. There will be plenty of articles written until a starter is named, but Campbell should be the guy by the time your fantasy draft rolls around.

Assuming Campbell is the starter, what can he offer fantasy owners in 2010?

Jason Campbell finally gets an opportunity to play in an NFL offense that fits his skill set. Ironically, he had to travel to Oakland to get out of the West Coast offense. Despite the relative fantasy drought from Oakland in recent years, the Raiders do have talent on offense capable of making Campbell worthy of being in your starting lineup.

His propensity to fumble will always be present, but Campbell should have ample opportunity to throw the long ball with the Silver and Black. The longer routes will also lead to more than a few quarterback scrambles throwing some rushing yards into the fantasy pot. Running backs capable of turning a screen pass into a 57-yard touchdown catch are even more reason to like Campbell’s fantasy upside in 2010.

Yet the biggest reason fantasy owners should come to like Campbell is simply the value he affords the instinctual fantasy football manager. Value, value, value! The name of the game when drafting any fantasy football squad is value. Oakland and Campbell’s track records alone will cause most fantasy owners to shy away from him in most 10-12 team leagues. As a result, you are likely to net the 2005 first rounder for the price of a backup. The discounted price will make Campbell’s upside that much more attractive on draft day. Barring injury, Jason Campbell’s new address could yield nice dividends to your fantasy football team in 2010.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Notes From Round One

Posted On Friday, April 23, 2010 by JakeTrain |

Round one is in the books and it’s already impacting the fantasy forecast of several players. Taking notes in April can give you a leg up later this summer as you prepare for the 2010 fantasy football season! READ MORE

Caution, Fantasy Friction Ahead!

The Bills surprised many people with their selection of RB C. J. Spiller. Marshawn Lynch’s stock has been falling but this essentially puts Lynch on notice in Buffalo. The bigger issue facing fantasy owners lies with Fred Jackson where it seemed a larger role was on the horizon. Spiller isn’t just a first round pick, he’s talented and went early in the first round. Buffalo clearly believes he will contribute in 2010 which ultimately limits the ceiling of Fred Jackson and his fantasy prospects.

Denver used to provide fantasy owners with ulcers at the RB position and now new coach Josh McDaniels is laying the foundation to do the same at the QB position. One of the draft’s first round enigmas, Tim Tebow, has been added to a team that enters next season with last season’s starter, Kyle Orton and the acquired talent of Brady Quinn. A mile high and a mile away is where you will want to be when Denver’s trio of QBs are taken in your fantasy draft.

Spring Fantasy Blooms

Steve Young had to try a few times, but he was finally able to offer up perspective fantasy owners should be jotting down. San Francisco used it’s highest draft picks to shore up a shallow offensive line. In doing so, they seemingly gave a vote of confidence to QB Alex Smith as their man under center to open the season. Also, judging by the types of lineman they chose, it also seems that Mike Singletary is going to place more of an emphasis on the ground game. The fantasy picture is coming into focus for the 49ers and you won’t want to be caught with your pants down on these players when choosing your fantasy team in 2010.

Jermain Greshem leads a revolution of sorts for fantasy owners in 2010. It’s still early, but the TE position is looking awfully deep right now. The relative declines of older players, the development of younger players and the increased number of young signal callers are going to create more opportunities for tight ends in 2010. Greshem will be catching the ball from an accurate Carson Palmer as the Bengals continue to build a balanced offensive attack.

So Is That Good Or Bad?

Dez Bryant’s talent and upside created a stir in the second half of the first round. He ends up in Dallas and you can bet he’ll be expected to contribute out of the gate. My first impression leaves me wondering how good the offense can be. Can they truly become a dynamic offense that produces a bounty of fantasy production like the Colts or will the yards and touchdowns be split amongst several players? I see a lot of playmakers on the Cowboys’ offense, but as it stands in April I’m struggling to see a true fantasy gem.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

2009 Bookmarks: Ronnie Brown And Steve Smith

Posted On Wednesday, February 10, 2010 by JakeTrain |

Most people are getting ready to pack up sshop on fantasy football, diving into other sports. Yet keeper and dynasty leagues require owners to be attentive throughout the off-season. READ MORE

If you are fairly new to fantasy football, enjoyed the fun of setting lineups each week and are looking to amp up the volume on your fantasy football hobby I suggest taking a look at keeper and dynasty leagues.

As with any league, there is a great deal of customization in these leagues. I'm not going to get into all the styles and types of leagues out there in this post, but I encourage you to explore the landscape prior to the 2010 fantasy football season.

If you are already playing in one of these leagues, you are aware of the challenges associated with choosing your "core" players. I've found one of the harder decisions to make is determining just when to let go of a solid fantasy veteran and roll with the younger developing stud.

Jerome Harrison and Jamaal Charles are examples of running backs that performed admireably down the stretch. So much so that the collective fantasy community is carrying that praise by moving these guys up their early rankings. In their wake lies a slew of fantasy veterans who are a little less shiny but still have plenty of gas left in the tank. These guys are being overlooked now and you can expect them to be overlooked even more after the NFL Draft when OTA's begin.

I thought I would take a quick look at two of these players before the season is too far removed. Leaving a few "bookmarks" from the previous season is extremely helpful in jumpstarting your preparation later in the year.

RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Brown is injury prone. Brown is good. Brown is actually really good. I'm not suggesting he is a player worth taking in the first round, but he is a first round talent when healthy. How many people wrote off Fred Taylor once he was labeled "injury-prone?" You might not get a full season from him, but he's a poor man's RB1 that can be had after the first round. He'll be passed by from risk averse owners until he falls in the lap from an owner making an educated gamble.

WR Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Smith may be the hardest to cover in the NFL. He is tough and can score any time he touches the ball. Injuries and quarterback issues have kept his fantasy output down in recent years. He is essentially the Ronnie Brown of the WR position. If you made Smith a part of your fantasy team in recent years, you probably don't want him on your squad. If your leaguemates fall asleep on him, be ready to scoop him up.

So what do you do with these players in keeper leagues? Your league settings and keeper rules will ultimately make the choice for you. If you keep four or less players in your league these guys are less likely to be kept making it possible for you to reacquire them at a more reasonable value. In leagues keeping a deeper pool of players, you have to keep them based on talent and potential alone. In these leagues, you might be wise to explore some trading opportunities as well.

Identifying brand names with above-average risk associated with them is a good starting place when looking for potential bargains for the 2010 fantasy football season when everyone is chasing the next Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Da Bears In 2010

Posted On Tuesday, February 09, 2010 by JakeTrain |

With the off season officially here, we can now officially look at the 2010 season. As the days go by, I'll periodically check in and offer my opinions in a segment called Pitch and Catch. Being a Bear's fan, it's only logical to begin with the buzz stemming from Mike Martz' arrival in the Windy City. READ MORE

I'll get to Mike Martz in a minute. First, what the hell did the Bears really do here? Angelo and Smith were kept with the prerequisite of replacing several key coaches. I like Lovie and think he is in the top half of NFL coaches, but at a time when iconic coaches are available it's hard for me to see past what could have been.

Since this is a fantasy football post I'll just move forward by saying that Angelo's impact on the NFL draft and the 2010 fantasy season will be minimal since the Bears have traded their top two picks and the NFL is moving into an uncapped season. Angelo's biggest hurdle this off-season will be getting some defensive ends on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, the Bears will seek out some younger guys on the offensive line.

Lovie has already made his biggest contribution to the fantasy season by hiring Mike Martz. Where there is Martz, there is fantasy football buzz. How Martz' play-calling and coaching will translate into fantasy success is hard to predict but one thing is for sure: The Bears' offensive players are far more relevant for the 2010 fantasy football season than they were a couple of weeks ago.

Martz will have to alter the offense we've come to know in his previous coaching stops. He must alter it because he's playing in Chicago and not inside or in warm weather. This will be a very unique Martz offense, one that makes predicting the true values of Forte, Cutler and company tougher for the 2010 season.

Forte can't do much worse and he'll take less of a beating so I'm optimistic in a nice rebound. Devin Hester can blossom if his route running improves-something I don't see happening. Knox and Bennett are in the perfect position to be assets to fantasy teams in 2010 while Jay Cutler remains one of the riskier quarterbacks to own. Until the Bears are able to land a truly gifted wideout, Cutler's touchdown totals likely won't reach the level of more elite signal callers.

The one player I was preparing to be bullish on is Greg Olsen. I say preparing because it seemed like the Bears' coaching search highlighted the tight end position. In my eyes, Chicago was looking to tailor its new offense around Cutler and Olsen. Then Martz was hired. The same guy who all but takes the TE position off the fantasy field. Olsen is different and as I've already said this Chicago-style Martz offense will be different. The hiring of Martz still has me cooling on Olsen, but the fact that Olsen remains the best receiving threat inside the red-zone keeps me very interested in his prospects for the 2010 fantasy season. Martz must make Olsen a focal point of the offense. If Martz is successful, the Bears offense will regain some luster within the fantasy realm.

The bigger, and possibly the biggest piece to the fantasy puzzle created with Martz' hiring is simply the schedule. The Bears will be playing the NFC East and AFC East in 2010. I put a lot of weight into schedules and opponents when preparing for a fantasy season. When faced with uncertainty of how players will perform under Martz combined with a slate of tough matchups, you'd be wise to take two steps back form the buzz around the Bears when evaluating Chicago's fantasy talent for 2010.

Moving on...

Early rankings are fun. They are also meaningless with so many factors yet to be determined. However, I'm more than a little surprised to see Jamaal Charles being treated like MJD. I see a nice running back on a team looking to mirror the Patriots of old. I see the ball being spread around in the offense and I also see the need for another RB to contribute in the offense. Charles is a nice player, but I'm not ready to make him my top running back any time soon.

I'll stoke the fire since it is sure to be a story at some point. If Favre doesn't come back, what is the value of a Percy Harvin? or Sidney Rice? Chester Taylor is likely going to head towards greener pastures as well. With Brett in toe, the Vikings could make one more run at a title, leading to fantasy riches. Without him, the team looks one-dimensional, leading to fantasy gambles.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

BOXCAR Football update

Posted On Sunday, December 13, 2009 by JakeTrain |

I've spent a lengthy time away from this blog. I have simply had little time to devote with higher priorities in my life. I am going to try to offer some limited posts as we close out the season but will back at full force in the summer to get ready for the 2010 season! Read More

So many things have happened since I last posted, but I'll try to focus on some of the more meaningful tidbits during fantasy playoff time!

First and foremost is a quick comment on the "Meachem Fumble of 2009." This play directly decided the outcome of a division winner and subsequent first round bye week in my biggest money league. Needless to say, it has caused a stir around the fantasy community.

My initial feelings steered me towards thinking this was a touchdown for the Saints defense. However, the logic that the Saints become the defense upon the interception should also be applied to the turnover that occurred when Meachem picked up the ball. At that point the Saints become the offense again and Meachem scores as an offensive player. I'd still credit the Saints defense with a forced fumble but not a fumble recovery. Regardless of your opinion on what the official fantasy scoring on this play, I hope your league handled it well. In our league, our commissioner did a great job at presenting the facts and precedent that had been sent. Not everyone was happy with the decision but in the end it has been accepted and everyone moves on.

To round out this post I will just throw out some opinionated bullets:

Shonn Greene is an interesting player to own at this point in the season. Greene should see increased carries this week with Kellen Clemens starting at QB. However, the Jets are not looking good for post-season play should they suffer another loss. Once the post-season is lost, I would not be surprised to see Greene's carries trend upward to the 15-18 mark.

Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy owners should be worried. Westy might be back next week after practicing. If that happens, Westbrook likely won't get enough carries to contribute and McCoy will see a decrease in touches making him a risky play as well.

I don't want to hear any more about how Troy Palamalu's injury is the reason behind the Steelers struggles. You don't become Super Bowl champs because of one player and you don't lose to the Cleveland Browns because of one player.

Those looking for a playoff TE if your starter is rested should consider Bo Scaife of the Titans. He should post modest numbers with a touchdown or two sprinkled in during the last few weeks of the season.

I'm heavily invested in the Patriots and the only thing that worries me is a possible blizzard in Buffalo next week. I will be looking at weather reports starting tomorrow, but if the weather remains clear, I'm expecting Randy Moss to close out the season on a high note.

I'll end with the Bears. My Bears finally ran the ball a ton and won a football game. Unfortunately, they were forced to change their play-calling after Cutler had an injury to his throwing hand. This season may be lost (if you drafted Matt Forte your season is probably not too bright by now either) but the Bears would be wise to see how effective running the ball can be even if you only average 3.0 ypc.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

BOXCAR Football Premium Partner

Posted On Sunday, December 13, 2009 by JakeTrain |

BOXCAR Football would not have started this season without the support and encouragement of friends and family. One of those supporters has stepped up to the plate to become a premium partner of BOXCAR Football's future. Read More

"I will Decide" is one of his many slogans, but Tailgator Dave also enjoys following the USC Trojans and the Dallas Cowboys throughout the gridiron season. He has been supportive of this blog from the very beginning and I look forward to our continued partnership with BOXCAR Football.

You can find Tailgator Dave on Facebook or by email.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Dissecting Your Fantasy Roster Down The Stretch

Posted On Tuesday, November 10, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Week 9 is in the books and many fantasy leagues begin the playoffs in week 1. That leaves four weeks to push your fantasy team into the playoffs. Also, trading deadlines are creeping up and owners are getting awfully desperate these days. So I figured I would serve up a few helpful things to keep in mind. Read More

BLOG NOTE: I am in the middle of several higher priority tasks right now. As a result, I just haven’t been able to devote much time to this blog. The good news is things should subside a bit by the end of the month. The bad thing is that there are still a few weeks remaining in November. I’d like to post more but right now my energy needs to be used elsewhere. I’ll try to post when I can but don’t expect much until December.

What CAN a player do vs. What HAS a player done

Preseason and even early season opinions on players need to be cast aside. Review your ENTIRE roster and determine what each player is worth to your team. Break it down week by week and list the match ups. Without bye weeks to worry about there is no reason you can’t forecast your starting lineup for the remainder of the fantasy regular season. Dissect that roster and probable starting lineups!

What is the value of a Beanie Wells in week 10 vs. Beanie Wells in Week 14 and 15? We don’t know exactly, but I think you can safely say it’s going to increase. Forecasting is not an exact science but one would think 10-15 touches against the Rams and Lions during the fantasy playoffs has more value than 8-12 touches against Seattle. Will Felix Jones, Darren Sproles, Brian Westbrook or any other RB on your roster have similar value at that point in the season?

I could right pages of details on this but the key principle is that you need to look for budget lotto tickets. If you are a middle of the road team who needs to win now, cash in Wells (by playing up his playoff schedule) for some immediate help. If you have things locked up, go get Wells so you don’t end up losing to the team who squeaked into the playoffs who had Wells on his bench.

Trimming Fat vs. Storing Fat

Aright, now don’t confuse this with what I outlined above. Finding the right fantasy fat content on your roster can go a long way towards your success heading into the colder weather. If you have quality depth on bench you should look to make a trade with a must-win-now team. However, if you don’t have quality depth, you can still use your bench to help your playoff chances.

Using essentially the same type of thinking as above, dissect your league’s waiver wire to find potential one week adds that have some value. If you are holding guys like Devery Henderson, Cadillac Williams, Kyle Orton-players that likely will not be options for most teams’ starting lineups the rest of the season-you might want to consider using your roster space differently.

If you play in a league where at least one team is streaming defenses (or you are the team streaming defenses) you might want to shed one or more players that don’t offer much value to hoard a couple of defenses. Take a look at the NFL schedule and gobble up anything that looks tasty. Drain the pool from which that team has to pick (or create your own if you are streaming) and make their choices less appetizing. The point is that even though you might not have any players to help you win on your bench you can still use those slots to make it tougher for another owner to win. After all, defense wins championships right?

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Hangover - Week 8

Posted On Tuesday, November 03, 2009 by JakeTrain |

How does a quarterback throw for nearly 350 yards and not record a passing touchdown? Peyton Manning did exactly that last weekend. But that wasn’t the biggest fantasy development of week 8. For that we head to Houston where Steve Slaton is probably sleeping with a football these days. Read More

“Hot Potato” Slaton fumbled away carries for the rest of the season and his fantasy owners. One of the top ten RBs coming into the season, Slaton is in the middle of a sophomore slump. I’m never one to write off a player who fumbles after seeing Ahman Green and Tiki Barber refine their ball security skills. Still, a decreased workload knocks Slaton’s value down a few pegs and seriously hampers any chance of him being a dominant force down the stretch for your fantasy team.

Michael Turner showed some nice burst in last night’s game. Turner’s production has slipped a bit from last season but I am expecting a nice second half from him. I hope you didn’t bench Ray Rice against the “vaunted” Bronco defense. It wasn’t a historic day but the dual threat is getting plenty of touches to help his owners. Barring a collapse, the former Rutgers standout will be a top 5 pick heading into your 2010 fantasy draft.

St. Louis got one in the left column for a change. In my opinion the Rams have the least talented roster in the league. Everyone knows Steven Jackson is getting the ball and he still manages to find enough room to run. If I’m in a keeper league I’d try to pry him away from his current owner and bank on a much better supporting cast in 2010.

In a day with several unusual stat lines, MJD’s 177 yards on the ground looks weird next to 8 carries. Where did Sims-Walker go? I jumped on the bandwagon but I’m not thrilled to see Garrard struggle.

The loss of Kenny Phillips in the Giants’ secondary hasn’t been fixed. You can talk about all the injuries and make excuses but the defensive backs lack leadership. Once they are exploited they have not shown an ability to bear down and make plays. Poor tackling is just as inexcusable in the second half as it is the first half. On a side note, I think it’s time to buy Hakeem Nicks. Steve Smith is a fine receiver but he is destined for a possession role. Nicks is the fantasy fruit you should be picking. I’m not sure if he’ll evolve into the better fantasy wideout this season but he should be the better guy to own next year.

Rex Ryan and his staff have made some rookie mistakes this year and it’s going to cost them a playoff appearance. Romo came to play again and Miles Austin caught another touchdown. I’m really uncomfortable with Dallas’ players fantasy wise. I may ok with Austin as a WR2, but Witten and the backfield are a crapshoot with low fantasy ceilings.

Last but not least…Brett Favre still doesn’t look right in a non-Packers uniform but I can’t bet against him in real life or fantasy. Minnesota’s defense is somewhat overshadowed by Favre and the offense but as long as they stay healthy the fantasy totals should keep piling up for the offense.

Bears Corner

Good job Chicago! Beating the Browns doesn’t really offer much insight into the state of this team. Can the Bears stop the pass? I don’t think so. Can the Bears improve their rush attack? I’d like to hope so. Is Jay Cutler going to “manage” his aggressiveness? Not this year.

With their backs against the wall, the Bears take on the Arizona Cardinals this week. Kurt Warner has absolutely picked apart defenses when given time to throw making the match up an ugly one. A win would restore a sliver of hope in my mind, however an expected loss should leave the Bears floundering to finish the season with eight wins.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 8

Posted On Friday, October 30, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Several divisional games highlight week 8 as fantasy owners enter the second half of the fantasy season. Trades have been made, waiver wire claims processed and busts have been written off. Alas, a few bye weeks remain to pester fantasy owners. Who should you plug in this week? Read More

I am staying away from that little game up in Lambeau this week because emotions will be off the charts. It’s going to be a nice game to watch, but as far as fantasy prognostication goes you can throw trends out the window. This game will have a playoff atmosphere and anything can happen.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Marc Bulger and David Garrard are easy calls this week but if you missed out on those guys and need a one week stop-gap, Sanchez is in an ideal position to post solid numbers. New York’s defense should give the offense plenty of opportunities and good field position. Additionally, Jerricho Cotchery should lineup opposite Braylon Edwards for the first time and they will play against rookie corners.

Sit: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – The Smith bandwagon has enough supporters to warrant mentioning him here. The Niners OL is not playing well and is not likely to stop the ferocious pass rush of the Colts.

S and P: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – How can you sit a quarterback playing the Browns? The Bears may decide to actually run the ball 30 times but you can’t bank on that happening this season. Cutler will be slinging the ball around one way or another and a quality match up puts him in the start column this week.

RB

Start: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – The Broncos are the toughest to run against, but Rice is turning the page in his young career. I’m not expecting huge numbers, but don’t you dare bench him unless you have clear-cut better options on your fantasy squad.

Sit: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants – The toe injury won’t keep him sidelined but it give HC Tom Coughlin ample reason to run Jacobs more. Bradshaw could still get involved as a receiver this week with New York running screens against the blitz but counting on Bradshaw is still a risky play.

S and P: Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai becomes a quality play this week with Donald Brown dealing with an injury. Another 20 touches could be in store against the 49ers.

WR

Start: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – I’m warming up to the Marshall plan-especially this week. The Ravens have struggled mightily against the pass and Marshall may be the best run after the catch receiver in the game right now.

Sit: Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys – Miles Austin has taken over the role as Dallas’ top receiver. Should defenses start keying in on stopping Austin I expect Jason Witten to be the beneficiary, not Williams.

S and P: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams – The conditions are right for a quality outing but with the Rams anemic offense nothing is certain. Double down on Avery and hope that Bulger can deliver a face card.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Neil Rackers, Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals offense should be able to move the ball well against the Panthers. Despite their quality of receivers and pass happy offense, they have only netter 9 passing touchdowns on the season. I’m liking the Arizona kicker to cash in on a few stalled drives against the Panthers.

Sit: Miami Defense – As I noted earlier, I think Mark Sanchez will have some success this week. The Dolphins should try to establish the run and eat the clock in this road game limiting the opportunity for the defense to record sacks and turnovers.

S and P: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – He has certainly cooled after his hot start but the Eagles will need to swap out some of the run game with the short pass to offset a likely decrease in carries from Brian Westbrook. I also don’t think Andy Reid will be as willing to let Brian Westbrook take goal line carries coming off the concussion making Celek the Eagles top option inside the ten-yard line.

----------------------------------

Week 7 Recap:

QB

Start: Matt Ryan – 198 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 Int

Sit: Chad Henne – 200 pass yds, 0 TD, 2 Int

S and P: Ben Roethlisberger – 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 Int

Ryan and the Falcons didn’t have an easy go of it in Dallas only posting respectable totals. New Orleans held Henne in check all day by allowing the former Wolverine to complete only 50 percent of his passes. Roethlisberger went up against a quality pass defense so his numbers shouldn’t come as a shock.

RB

Start: Tashard Choice – 0 rush, 1 rec 23 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Jamal Lewis – 47 rush yds, 0 TD

S and P: Thomas Jones – 121 rush yds, 1 TD, 1 rec, 3 rec yds, 0 TD

Choice’s fantasy value took a hit when it was announced Felix Jones would be active. Nobody should have started him at that point so I’ll take a mulligan and move on. Lewis is an aging back on a bad team that plays from behind the majority of the game. Leon Washington’s injury allowed Jones to record a season-high 26 carries in route to a stellar fantasy day.

WR

Start: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings – (Driver) 2 rec, 84 rec yds, 1 TD, (Jennings) 5 rec, 52 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Michael Crabtree – 5 rec, 56 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Steve Smith (Car) – 6 rec, 99 yds, 0 TD

Driver got the touchdown and Jennings got the targets, but in the end Green Bay ran the ball. Crabtree performed fairly well in his first pro action but didn’t merit a start on your fantasy team. Smith saw double digit targets for the first time since week 2 in route to an unspectacular but useful fantasy day.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Matt Stover – 0 FG, 6 XP

Sit: Zach Miller – 2 rec, 15 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Cincinnati Defense – 10 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 3 Int, 1 FumRec

Stover was not needed for any three pointers but a cool 6 points helped anyone who plugged him. Miller saw his targets drop from 11 to 3 against the blitzing Jets. Cincinnati destroyed the turnover friendly Chicago offense.

NFL GAMES WEEK 8 (All times EST)

Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens - 1 p.m.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears - 1 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys - 1 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers - 1 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts - 1 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets - 1 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - 4:05 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers - 4:05 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals - 4:15 p.m.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles - 4:15 p.m.

Monday: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - 8:30 p.m

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 7

Posted On Monday, October 26, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Will the Eagles join the other defensive units who shined in week 7? Can Alex Smith turn Vernon Davis into a top-five fantasy TE for the rest of the season? Read More

I’m not sure the Patriots and Bucs did much to increase the appeal of American football in England. The script played out as expected with the Patriots handedly defeated the Bucs. Perhaps next time if Wembley Stadium is booked the NFL would consider moving their act to the “Wooden O?” Nonetheless, there was nothing strange to note here. We are another step closer to seeing Josh Freeman starting and Tom Brady took a few more shots down the field yesterday but failed to connect more often than not.

The 49ers’ Vernon Davis notched three scores yesterday. This game wasn’t merely a spectacular outing for his owners, but it also gave Davis touchdowns and double-digit targets in three of the past four games. In other words, Davis is getting more opportunity and he is cashing in, two very positive signs for fantasy owners. He is a must-start on the road and I’m moving him ahead of Greg Olsen and alongside Brent Celek for the rest of the season. Juicy match ups in week 16 (vs. DET) and 17 (at STL) don’t hurt either.

This week I couldn’t help but notice how many fantasy defenses posted big games. Of course not every league counts defenses and special teams the same, but we got it all yesterday. Blocked punts, kickoffs and interceptions were returned for scores. Plenty of sacks and fumbles, heck Carolina’s safety accounted for over 20% of their team’s final score!

It’s safe to say Chicago can’t stop the pass and needs to start calling more running plays. It is also time to start giving Carson Palmer a little more value. Palmer has the nice 2:1 TD:INT ratio you want in a QB1 and gets Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland and Detroit in four of the next five games.

Leon Washington’s injury elevates the value of Thomas Jones for the rest of the season. Already the popular choice near the goal, Jones is in line to get close to 20 touches per game. Shonn Greene is flex add with some upside but I wouldn’t go overboard with your free agent budget to get him.

Speaking of running backs, several backfields are seeing their fantasy production dwindle. In Dallas, Felix Jones’ return almost makes every Cowboy running back a flex-only play. Tampa Bay went back to more of a 50/50 split just when it looked like Cadillac Williams was going to see 15 carries a game. Beanie Wells regained some of his lost thunder while encroaching on Tim Hightower’s recent success. Additionally, Mike Bell’s “hot hand” kept Pierre Thomas’ carries down. What does this mean for fantasy owners? As the number of legit RB2’s decreases it makes guys like Ryan Grant, Kevin Smith, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams more valuable than ever.

If you haven’t bought into the decline of Ladanian Tomlinson take a look at his numbers yesterday. If you can’t produce 75 yards on 25 touches in the NFL you are not a great tailback. Well, Tomlinson failed to reach that benchmark against the Chiefs. The Chargers are now Phillip Rivers team so adjust accordingly.

Bears Corner

I’m far too disgusted with the performance of the Bear’s to waste time writing about them so I will just rant on the NFL.

Every passing week makes it clearer and clearer. The NFL has more than a few BAD teams. Six teams failed to score 10 points. When you consider Detroit and Tennessee were on a bye it makes it even more astonishing to me. Can you imagine what would happen to real businesses that made such poor personnel choices? I am not old enough to have lived through the NFL’s earlier days, but to think that the Washington Redskins and Oakland Raiders are considered to be “bad jobs” is a travesty. When guys like Jon Gruden and Mike Shannahan get fired while Dick Jauron and Eric Mangini are offered contracts one has to wonder what the heck NFL owners are sipping on these days? If it’s not aged at least 15 years it’s gotta be some mighty fine Kool-Aid.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Felix Jones And The Temple Of Doom

Posted On Saturday, October 24, 2009 by JakeTrain |

The Dallas backfield situation is muddied and fantasy owners are forced to make a touch decision this weekend. Read More

It's now being reported that Felix Jones will be back at full speed for tomorrow's tilt against Atlanta. That should equate to less carries for the Dallas trio of running backs.

Marion Barber is still feeling the effects of a quad injury and should be given a few more plays off now that Jones and Choice are healthy behind them. I'm still considering Barber a low end RB2 for this week, but his value for the rest of the season takes a little bit of a hit. Two capable backs stealing carries and an injury to a leg is not ideal for your top runner.

Felix Jones and Tashard Choice owners will need to wait and see how this situation plays out before deploying either player in their starting lineup. I had previously said Choice was a quality start this week, however Jones being back changes his outlook. Both running backs should be owned, but neither can be considered anything better than a RB3 with upside since there is obvious injury risk attached to Dallas' running backs.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 7

Posted On Thursday, October 22, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Week 7 will starve fantasy owners from porous pass defenses. Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville will not be giving up yards to fantasy QBs this week. However fantasy’s best passers should carry plenty of fantasy teams to victory with several juicy match ups to exploit. Read More

Cedric Benson should be running with some extra motivation facing the Bears this week making him a nice option at RB. The Dolphins will be out to control the clock against the high-octane Saints offense. Can New Orleans contain the Wildcat? Meanwhile, Oakland tries to put together a winning streak against another east coast team traveling west. We’ll be half way through the fantasy regular season after this week so lineup choices are critical!

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – His stat line Sunday night wasn’t very impressive and he is playing a team coming off a bye week. However, Dallas should struggle with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez in this game and I’m banking on a nice outing from the BC alum.

Sit: Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins – I’d love to insert Mr. Favre in this spot but I’m not going there again. I’m expecting Miami to focus on the run in this game, limited Henne’s chances for fantasy success.

S and P: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – I have been slow to accept the Steelers’ passing game, but Big Ben has strung together some nice games. He’ll have his hands full this week against the Vikings, but you can’t sit him when he is playing this well.

RB

Start: Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys – His production on the field seems to have cemented an increased role in the offense. If the team is prepared to give him more carries, fantasy owners should begin to put him in their lineups-specially in PPR formats.

Sit: Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns – Forget Lewis as a flex week play in week 7. The team has not had a normal week of preparation due to a flu outbreak and the Packers have held their past two opponents to 78 and 82 yards rushing.

S and P: Thomas Jones, New York Jets – The Jets should give the running game more carries as they try to take the pressure off their rookie quarterback. Jones tends to play better with more touches and fantasy owners will have to roll the dice on him against the Raiders this week.

WR

Start: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers should record his third straight 300-yard passing day against the Browns this weekend. Consequently, I’m optimist fantasy owners will see production out of both starting wideouts this week.

Sit: Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – A great talent, fantasy owners should take a “wait and see” approach to Crabtree. The 49ers will want to run the ball with Gore back in the mix and we don’t know how effective he will be in this offense with limited preparation.

S and P: Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers – Many of his owners will want to bench their high draft pick-deservedly so-but I think you need to give him one more week before writing him off.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Matt Stover, Indianapolis Colts – He’s back and he’s a great play this week playing indoors with a high-scoring offense.

Sit: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – If Oakland doesn’t use him to block Miller will still have to rely on Russell getting him the ball quickly. I wouldn’t count on Russell showing poise under pressure and making quick reads.

S and P: Cincinnati Defense – Chicago has shown it can move the ball, but it has also shown it can turn the ball over. If you don’t have a clear-cut choice, roll with the Bengals at home and hope the Bears’ turnovers continue.

----------------------------------

Week 6 Recap:

QB

Start: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – 112 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 Int

Sit: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – 278 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 Int

S and P: Eli Manning, New York Giants – 178 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 Int

Hasselbeck burned me. What else is there to say except the team is very inconsistent. I guess I am too damn biased and wishing Favre would stop being so useful. He is proving to be one of fantasy’s better bargains at the QB position. The Saints had the Giants playing from behind early and gave Manning very little room to mount a comeback.

RB

Start: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – 13 rush yds, 0 TD

Sit: Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – 70 rush yds, 0 TD, 3 rec, 30 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Leon Washington, New York Jets – 99 rush yds, 0 TD, 3 rec, 46 rec yds, 0 TD

In an enigma of a game, McCoy and the rest of the offense struggled to move the ball. Tomlinson never really got it going and was not given a third try from inside the five after failing on the two previous carries. Overtime almost provided Washington with his first 100-yard rushing game in a very long time. Still, he racked up nice yardage totals.

WR

Start: Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions – 2 rec, 27 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – 6 rec, 109 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – 1rec, 42 rec yds, 0 TD

The Lions didn’t much of anything last week so nobody capitalized in Calvin Johnson’s absence I have never doubted the talent from Bowe, but maybe Haley’s motivational tactics are working. All I know is that if he keeps getting 14 targets a game he will have more games like this one. The Redskins are a mess and the team made a quarterback change in route to Moss’ poor outing.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears – 0 FGM, 2 XP

Sit: Seattle Defense – 27 Points Allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 FumRec

S and P: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens – 3 rec, 51 rec yds, 0 TD

Not a horrible outing from the Seahawks, but certainly nothing special. Heap prayers when unanswered as he failed to score. Turnovers inside the red zone cost the Bears a victory and a solid outing for Gould’s fantasy owners.

NFL GAMES WEEK 7 (All times EST)

Bye: Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals - 1 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns - 1 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans - 1 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs - 1 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams - 1 p.m.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers - 4:05 p.m.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders - 4:05 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys - 4:15 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins - 4:15 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins - 8:30 p.m

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 6

Posted On Tuesday, October 20, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Week 6 sure had me fooled. The Texans showed why people liked them in the preseason. Baltimore’s defense is a good match up for your fantasy players. The Raiders shut down the second-ranked offense. To top it all off, as soon as I show Seattle some love, they go right back to being bad. Read More

Matt Forte’s stats are down and his owner in one of my league’s just shipped him off and stated he would have taken a box of crackerjacks in return for the struggling running back. This led to me to thinking about something I tend to do every year: digging in on players.

I toe the dirt on guys, unwilling to give up on them. We’ve all been there and I am there on Matt Forte. I’m not going to say he is a HUGE buy low but his price is likely so low that a modest improvement would result in a net gain for your fantasy squad. Ship him away if you like but I’m filing Forte under the “Weather” column-a growing list of players I am expecting to benefit from anticipated poorer weather conditions.

While we are on the weather, how about Tom Brady? Nobody is shocked if you’ve been following along with the Titans this season, but as a Brady owner in a competitive league I was more than happy to see him rack up the points. On the other side of the field, the Titans team of 2009 doesn’t share any characteristics of the 2008 group. I recommended adding LenDale White early this season and he is still on my “weather list” but he should be a free agent in leagues with 10 teams or less. Actually, he is droppable in 12 team leagues right now! I’d try to give him another week or two but I could be wrong on White this year.

Brandon Marshall’s fantasy production last night is exactly the reason why I consider him a WR2 for the 2009 season. The guy is good and he does great things when he catches the ball-see week 5. However, he does not get WR1 targets and therefore his receptions are going to be fairly “typical” wide receiver. When he doesn’t turn those 4-6 receptions into touchdowns you are left with 50-75 yards and an average fantasy score. The supposed discounted price you paid preseason is looking more like an appropriate price to me.

Are you kidding me Philadelphia? The Oakland Raiders? They not only scored but they prevented someone else from scoring? I didn’t watch the game but read a line in yesterday’s USA Today stating that the Eagles were “the first team in three years to fail to score a touchdown against the Raiders.” Can’t say I saw that one coming.

Over the weekend I was asked which Green Bay WR would I want to own for the rest of the season. Driver has been pretty consistent but Jennings is getting better every week. Given the choice I’d rather have Jennings. We know Jennings can be a WR1 and improvements in each of the last two weeks are enough to keep me optimistic.

Two more things of interest devloping in the NFL this year are the string of games on Atlanta's schedule against teams coming off a bye week and the number of winless teams Washington has faced. The latter has shown Washington to be a bad team. Will the former prove the Falcons are a solid team? You betchya. It's hard enough winning in the NFL, but when the cards are stacked against you the margin for error isn't just small, it doesn't exist.

Bears Corner

I gave the Bears a 50% chance of winning coming into the game. After the first half it was clear they could win this game and yet turnover after turnover after turnover my hopes dwindled. The team needs to upgrade it’s run blocking by any means necessary or Chicago fans will have as many inches of snow on the ground as their football tam has losses. Another road game they should have won. Is it me or does it smell like 8-8 in here?

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 6

Posted On Thursday, October 15, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Guys like Frank Gore and Willie Parker are getting back on the field. Other guys like Matt Forte, Ladanian Tomlinson and Pierre Thomas have fantasy owners optimistic in their return. Nobody has to play Peyton Manning or watch Ronnie Brown run the Wildcat. It’s week 6 in the NFL and it’s not too early to start thinking about your lineup on Sunday! Read More

I think Week 6 figures to give fantasy owners some growing pains as several pleasant surprises of the 2009 season could disappoint. Yet, some of the season’s early disappointments should shine with quality match ups.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – (Gulp) I am still not a fan of him this season, but I can’t bench him this week. He was great last week and gets an Arizona defense at home that has been far better at stopping the run than the pass.

Sit: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – Right now, I would not want to be facing the Ravens. A team that prides itself on defense will heads to Minnesota with a chip on their shoulder. Favre is playing well but I think he makes a few bad throws in this game.

S and P: Eli Manning, New York Giants – I hate to place Manning in this post three straight weeks but he remains one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners. Manning seemed ok last week playing with the injured foot. Just keep in mind the Saints have allowed only two passing touchdowns this year.

RB

Start: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – I’m expecting the Philadelphia defense to create turnovers and provide ample scoring chances. Throw in some garbage yards as the team runs out the clock late and McCoy becomes a nice flex option despite having to travel west.

Sit: Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - I'm not sitting LT over every guy but I have yet to see the same old LT and am not comfortable plugging him in despite an extra week of rest. He's really a boom or bust pick on Monday Night so unless you are playing one of the better teams in your league and need to take the risk I'd play it safe.

S and P: Leon Washington, New York Jets – Washington has seen his touches decrease in recent weeks, but the Bills just let an old Jamal Lewis rush for over 100 yards against them. I’m betting on Leon to finally break out and bust a few long plays on Buffalo at the Meadowlands.

WR

Start: Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions – Anyone can tell you to start Randy Moss against the Titans, so I’m ramping it up a notch. The Packers are allowing the 7th most fantasy points WRs and Calvin Johnson is dealing with a minor injury. Johnson is also averaging 8 targets over his last three games. Stafford or Culpepper under center isn’t going to matter when the Lions are down and need to throw the ball.

Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – Washington is allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to receivers. He has yet to catch more than 5 passes in a game and should have a tougher time finding the end zone.

S and P: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – Most would think Moss is an absolute start this week. The Chiefs have been torched through the air and are on the road, but he has eclipsed 75 yards and 5 receptions in a game only once this season. Added drama about a potential coaching change mid-season and Moss isn’t a lock to produce.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears – I think this game is close, with both teams moving the ball. As a result, I like Gould indoors in a conservative game.

Sit: Seattle Defense – They won’t be shutting out the Cardinals this week. Warner won’t be affected by the noise and has been sacked only 8 times this season (4 coming in one game vs. Colts).

S and P: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens – The Vikes do a pretty good job against the run and on the outside against the WRs. I’d go with Heap in a bind and hope he can continue to make Minnesota’s defense the most fantasy friendly towards tight ends.

----------------------------------

Week 5 Recap:

QB

Start: Kurt Warner – 302 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Sit: Eli Manning – 173 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

S and P: Tom Brady – 215 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

I was expecting a little more from Warner but will gladly take a 300+ and two score day from my QB1. Elijah made the most out of his 10 passes, salvaging his fantasy day for those who made the risky play. Brady missed a few touchdowns but threw for more than 1 TD for the first time since week 1.

RB

Start: Marshawn Lynch – 69 rush yards, 0 TD, 6 rec, 56 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Steven Jackson – 84 rush yards, 0 TD, 2 rec, 25 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Michael Turner – 97 rush yards, 3 TD

The Bills offense had trouble moving the chains and prevented Lynch from having a nice fantasy day. Jackson was held out of the end zone and fell short of RB1 stats. Michael Turner turned in his best performance of the season and will now try to shed the “only plays well against weak teams” rap.

WR

Start: DeSean Jackson – 1 rec, 1 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Braylon Edwards – 5 rec, 64 rec yards, 1 TD

S and P: Steve Smith – 3 rec, 70 rec yards, 0 TD

All of the signs pointed to a nice day from the Eagles passing attack, however it was Jeremy Maclin cashing in rather than Jackson. I was impressed with Edwards, but fantasy owners need to keep in mind Jerricho Cotchery was limited as well. Steve Smith connected on a long pass play to post modest production.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Buffalo Defense – 6 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 1 Int,

Sit: John Carlson – 2 rec, 31 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: John Kasay – 1 FGM, 1 XP

The Bills defense was nothing spectacular last week. However, the depleted unit still kept the score down for leagues in which the score matters. Carlson didn’t get in the action as Matt Hasselbeck was tossing the pigskin to his wideouts most of the day. Kasay didn’t double his season totals, but 4 points was better than nothing.

NFL GAMES WEEK 6 (All times EST)

Bye: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals - 1 p.m.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - 1 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars - 1 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings - 1 p.m.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs - 1 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins - 1 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders - 4:05 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks - 4:05 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots - 4:15 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets - 4:15 p.m.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers - 8:30 p.m.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Welcome to BOXCAR Football...