Start, Sit, or Squat and Pray - Week 5

Posted On Thursday, October 08, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football start sit week 5I rebounded with a nice collection of picks in week 4. Scanning this week’s games, there appears to be a lot of one-sided affairs on tap. Even so, that doesn’t make those lineup decisions any easier. Time to roll up the sleeves and see who should be starting for your fantasy team in week 5. Read More

The weather is cooling and three of fantasy football’s best quarterbacks are on a bye week. I’m anticipating a low scoring week from around the league. If that’s the case, you can expect some close games in your fantasy league(s) and that makes this week’s line up decisions crucial.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – The Texans are getting burned by the run thus far (see Johnson, Chris) but make no mistake, Arizona will be throwing the football. Warner and his receivers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and are playing at home.

Sit: Eli Manning, New York Giants – Let’s take a look at what we know. He has an injury to the heel of his plant foot and has never played with this injury before. As a fantasy owner, you just can’t risk plugging him in and having him leave the game after the first quarter.

Squat and Pray: Tom Brady, New England Patriots – The Broncos pass defense is pretty good but Romo made them look better. Brady has two games under his belt against defenses able to pressure the quarterback. The Pats still have a lot of weapons on offense and fantasy owners have to have faith in there early pick this week.

RB

Start: Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – The Browns are giving up over 400 yards a game on defense. They rank dead last in the AFC against the run. The wait is over for Lynch owners this week.

Sit: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – I’m doubling up on sitting running backs against the Vikings. Jackson will be tough to sit, but the Rams are bad and if there is a team that knows what it’s like to have an opponent load up against the run it’s Minnesota.

Squat and Pray: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – He has a history of only performing against weak teams and the 49ers defense doesn’t fall under that category after a month of NFL games. Yielding a scant 73.8 yards rushing per contest, San Francisco will be ready for Turner and the Falcons at home.

WR

Start: DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson and the Eagles should perform well against a defense that has allowed nine touchdowns through the air and several long passing plays.

Sit: Braylon Edwards, New York Jets – I was busy this week and haven’t had time to chime in on the trade but the Jets are not going to turn into a passing team overnight. He still has stone hands and a half-week to learn the offense.

Squat and Pray: Steve Smith, New York Giants – How can you bench this guy, especially in PPR leagues? You really can’t. I’m worried that Eli won’t be as effective throwing the ball. But I’m even more worried about the Giants having this game in hand early resulting in a heavy dose of the running game.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Buffalo Defense – They are playing at home where the forecast is calling for 10+ MPH winds and a temperature high of 52-degrees. Add in a lowly Browns team and fantasy owners with the Bears, Packers or Chargers defenses have their bye week replacement.

Sit: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks – I realize he is playing at home, Matt Hasselbeck is likely to play and the Jags rank dead last in the NFL passing yards allowed per game. However, a lot of that is due to them facing Peyton Manning. Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Houshmandzadeh are going to get their share of balls. Fewer targets and less than ideal touchdown potential have me benching him this week.

Squat and Pray: John Kasay, Carolina Panthers – Kasay is probably on your league’s waiver wire and I like the match up. He only has three FGA on the season but could double that this weekend.

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Week 4 Recap:

QB

Start: David Garrard – 323 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 38 rush yards

Sit: Eli Manning – 292 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

S and P: Shaun Hill – 152 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Garrard was great last week as the Jags took advantage of the leaky Titans pass defense. Eli’s numbers were not among the weekly leaders until Hakeem Nicks turned what should have been a moderate gain into a 54-yard touchdown. Those who started Hill were fortunate two get a couple of scores to bail out his fantasy day.

RB

Start: Ronnie Brown – 115 rush yards, 2 TD

Sit: Ryan Grant – 51 rush yards, 4 rec, 50 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Darren McFadden - -3 rush yards, 1 rec, 5 rec yards, 0 TD

I’ll admit the Brown call was a bit “easy” but I needed to get one right in the worst way. Grant did ok in PPR leagues but otherwise was a disappointment. McFadden injured his meniscus in his last chance to win fantasy owners over this season.

WR

Start: Calvin Johnson – 8 rec, 133 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Santonio Holmes – 4 rec, 52 yards, 0 TD

S and P: Randy Moss – 3 rec, 50 yards, 1 TD

Johnson saw twelve targets but came up just short of the goal line on a couple of receptions and Kevin Smith took advantage. Santonio Holmes watched Rashard Mendenhall like the rest of us. Moss was held to a season-low five targets this past Sunday but did tally his first TD on the season.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Dustin Keller – 3 rec, 31 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Denver Broncos Defense – 10 points allowed, 5 sacks, 1 int, 1 FF

S and P: Dan Carpenter – 1 FG, 5 XP

The Jets’ Mark Sanchez played too poorly for Keller to post solid numbers. Just when I thought Dallas was going to take the ball out of Romo’s hands they let him toss 42 passes. Carpenter walked away with solid eight points if you plugged him as a bye week filler.

NFL GAMES WEEK 5 (All times EST)

Bye: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills - 1 p.m.
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers - 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions - 1 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs- 1 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants - 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams - 1 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers - 4:05 p.m.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals - 4:15 p.m.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - 4:15 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks - 4:15 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins - 8:30 p.m.

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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 4

Posted On Monday, October 05, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballPeyton Manning has been putting up numbers so much that we do not often realize his ridiculous assault on the record books. This guy still has several seasons to go barring injury. In a game that is all about the stats, it’s amazing how many fantasy owners were reluctant to place him in the top 2-including myself. At the end of the day, Manning’s consistency should be worth more to fantasy owners than banking on a stellar season from Brees or Brady. Read More

The Patriots game was exciting and dull to me. Brady stood in the shotgun and either threw a short pass or handed it off on a draw more often than not. Very dull watching this offense. On the other side, Baltimore was doing a little bit of everything but not enough. Ray Rice is a dynamic player in the offense but they do not use him enough. One week they will and he’ll go off to the tune of 200 total yards.

If you are buying Sims-Walker then shouldn’t you be buying Garrard as well? I spoke with a few people and they do not get excited about Garrard yet gush over Sims-Walker. Mr. Garrard has Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee and Kansas City on deck. Excited now?

Going back to what I said last week, there are 12 teams with one or zero wins right now! TWELVE! Out of those teams, six have new coaches. Mike Shannahan, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher are seeing dollar signs by the week.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Romo is not a very good fantasy QB.

Don’t look too much at Darren Sproles’ zero carries and single reception Sunday night. San Diego was playing Pittsburgh and playing from behind at the outset. Tomlinson and Sproles get a bye week and then play the Broncos at home on Monday night in week 6.

Thomas Jones owners should be worried. Whether it is the Jets offensive line or Thomas’ age catching up to him, he isn’t producing and rookie Shonn Greene is getting into the mix. I’m not sure what the value of Leon Washington is right now but I am pretty sure the Jets are going to have to get the ball in his hands more.

I watched Eli Manning throw to Steve Smith this weekend and had two distinct thoughts on him. Sell high in low-performance, touchdown formats and buy in PPR leagues. Brandon Jacobs does not look good. When he just takes the ball and runs downhill he finds the back of his offensive lineman too often. When he tries to find a hole he slows down. Unless he can make some adjustments I’m considering him a RB2.

Bears Corner

Fantasy junkies can thank Lions HC Jim Schwartz for giving them another position to choose next season. I’m pretty sure you’ll be able to find the Detroit training staff on the waiver wire next year!

All kidding aside, I was scared about this game and am thankful to get the ‘W.’ Chicago was fortunate that the Lions struggle to put together four quarters of football on a weekly basis. Forte’s performance was not a surprise and should calm some fantasy panic. Hester left the game making Bennett and Knox worthy of looks in 10-12 team leagues. Cutler’s Elway-esque run into the end zone was a great football play to watch.

Put your feet up Chicago, the Bears can watch their two main rivals slug it out tonight and have a week of rest. A Packers win tonight would knot the division up at 3-1. So this Bears fan will be routing for the Packers in a very rare set of circumstances. Then again, being only one game behind Minnesota (with both head to head games to play) and a game up on the Packers isn’t so bad.


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A Lot At Stake For Moore, Mendenhall

Posted On Saturday, October 03, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Fantasy football newsI had some time this morning so I thought I'd sneak in a quick look at some headlines heading into Sunday's games. Fantasy stakes are high in Pittsburgh's backfield as Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall are in line for more carries. Read More

Steelers RB Willie Parker is not expected to play against the Chargers Sunday night. Mewelde Moore is worth a flex spot this week. However, Rashard Mendenhall is a risky play. It's a big week for Mendenhall and his supporters like myself. He needs to show more than "something" in this game. He needs to prove he can be the guy in this offense. Here's hoping he knows the plays and holds onto the ball!

Roger Rotter of Fox Sports offers his opinion on some week 4 sleepers.

The best news I can find out of New England. If Welker's knee keeps him out a third week then we are left to draw conclusions about his injury. My assumption is that it;s a bruised knee and every time he works it out it swells up on him. But that's purely speculation on my part.

Roddy White thinks the big plays down the field will start picking up after the bye week. I still think White will struggle to crack the top 10 at his position. Atlanta will get the run going and Tony Gonzalez will continue to eat into White's looks. Going forward it is starting to look like White may become reliant on connecting deep to post top-end fantasy totals. That makes him more inconsistent and unreliable in my eyes and a WR2.

Those of you expecting to play Julius Jones or Nate Burleson this week might want to know that Walter Jones has been ruled out. Even without Dwight Freeney, I love the Colts pass rush against this line and advise fantasy owners to give Indy's defense the start against Seattle.

Those who play in leagues with return yardage can continue to see added production from Bears wideout Johnny Knox.

Jamarcus Russell has hamstrung the Raiders offense. In a year where McFadden should be getting similar treatment to Steven Jackson as Oakland's Mr. Everything head coach Tom Cable continues to stand behind his quarterback. I had high hopes for McFadden coming into the season but unless Russell can complete a pass he is doomed to be a match up play AT BEST. Ughh.

The Packers are having issues along the offensive line. chad Clifton was going to try and play but he had a set back is a game-time decision to protect Aaron Rodgers. I'm not feeling warm and fuzzy about the Packers offense putting up too many points in Minnesota.

I've been critical of Romo and the Cowboys needing to revise their quarterback's role in the offense. Yesterday's headline from dallasnews.com supports my claim: Dallas Cowboys' Romo Could Learn From Bronco's QB Orton.

In a non-fantasy football story, the NFLPA has created a "concussion committee." This is a serious issue that has finally grown feet. I am perplexed by how long it took a professional sports league playing a collision sport like football to make efforts on this topic. Although the NFL commissioned a report to prove concussed players were at higher risk of future health problems, logic could have figured that out. Just goes to show you that TV and revenue are and will always be the NFL's top priority.


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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 4

Posted On Friday, October 02, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football start sit week 4My week three choices bombed. Absolutely bombed. I’m okay with having an off week, but I’m starting to wonder if I’ll ever get a RB start to go my way. As I dust myself off, we turn the calendars to October where fantasy owners are faced with their first bye week. It’s Week four and lineup choices are getting tough! Read More

Fantasy owners are given a break from deciding on Westbrook with the Eagles on a bye. However, first round picks Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald and DeAngelo Williams have fantasy managers hoping their replacements have nice outings.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – It might not be flashy, but Tennessee has been susceptible against the pass and Sims-Walker is emerging as a nice target.

Sit: Eli Manning, New York Giants – Ok now I’m not benching him over any QB, but I’m not expecting huge fantasy totals from Eli this week. He is on the road at arrowhead with an inexperienced group of receivers.

Squat and Pray: Shaun Hill, San Francisco 49ers – If Hill is a consideration for your lineup this week you are dealing with some injuries or a bye week. The match up looks awfully nice for Hill but it’s equally nice for the running game.

RB

Start: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – Chad Henne has a full week of practice under his belt, but the Dolphins still have ample reason to employ the wildcat this week.

Sit: Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – He’s been scrappy in posting nice totals thus far but the Vikes run defense is superb and one of the two remaining teams that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Squat and Pray: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – The Texans have given up more rushing yards than any other team, including 7 scores. Just hope that Michael Bush doesn’t vulture the few touchdown opportunities Oakland gets.

WR

Start: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – The injury status of Kevin Smith should give Mathew Stafford and the Lions more reason to look Johnson’s way and the Bears don’t have anyone to cover him.

Sit: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers – I will be extremely surprised if the Chargers do not center their game plan on stopping Holmes. A banged up backfield and the return of Merriman to the lineup should have Roethlisberger under pressure all day.

Squat and Pray: Randy Moss, New England Patriots – starting receivers against the Ravens defense is normally not a great idea, but if Baltimore’s offense continues to put points on the board, you don’t want Moss on your bench in a shootout situation.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Dustin Keller, New York Jets – The Jets will have to throw and Keller will be the target of plenty of Mark Sanchez passes. Red zone looks make him one of the better plays at TE this week.

Sit: Denver Broncos Defense – The defense is improved but they do not match up well against Dallas. With a mammoth offensive line, the Cowboys should be able to plow straight ahead Sunday negating Denver’s fleet-footed defenders.

Squat and Pray: Dan Carpenter, Miami Dolphins – The weather is nice in South Florida and a conservative run-orientated offense could stall a few times providing Carpenter with a couple of FGs.

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Week 3 Recap:

QB

Start: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – 156 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Sit: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – 247 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

S and P: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – 183 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

The shootout that never was translated into weak fantasy totals in Buffalo including Edwards’ paltry effort. Chicago’s turnovers prevented them from ever establishing a lead in the game. Ultimately, Cutler was asked to get the job done for the Bears again and in the end he walked away from Seattle with fine totals. Palmer was able to escape with the win, but his fantasy output was modest at best. Bad week for me at the QB position.

RB

Start: Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – 42 rush yards, 1 rec, 6 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – 45 rush yards, 2 rec, 3 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – 117 rush yards, 5 rec, 46 rec yards, 0 TD

Portis’ lousy day against the Lions has me baffled. An injured running back with Portis’ skills should be able to produce something against Detroit. Washington is in trouble. McFadden is having trouble getting it going with in inept QB. Jackson’s day was about what you should expect: nice yardage with no touchdowns.

WR

Start: Mario Manningham, New York Giants – 4 rec, 55 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – 5 rec, 67 rec yards, 1 TD

S and P: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City – Inactive

Manninghamg was targeted 7 times, but the Bucs were so bad the Giants didn’t even need to use the long ball. Two words on Marshall, “wrong again.” Shortly after I posted, Bowe’s status for the weekend was uncertain. Yet it was par for the course on my picks this week.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Bengals Defense – 20 Points Allowed 1 Sack, 1 Int, 1 TD

Sit: Rian Lindell, Buffalo Bills – 0 FG, 1 XP

S and P: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers – 5 rec, 20 rec yards, 0 TD

The Bengals defense cashed in by returning their lone Roethlisberger interception for a touchdown in the third quarter. Woohoo, I was right about the kicker! Lindell never attempted a FG. Miller had 6 targets but didn’t find the end zone. He’ll probably get more love in coming weeks after Sweed’s drops but that doesn’t change his output from last week.

NFL GAMES WEEK 4

Bye: Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, and Carolina Panthers

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -- 1 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns -- 1 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans -- 1 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts -- 1 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars -- 1 p.m.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs -- 1 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots -- 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins -- 1 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins -- 4:05 p.m.
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints -- 4:05 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos -- 4:15 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers -- 4:15 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers -- 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings -- 8:20 p.m.

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