Da Bears In 2010

Posted On Tuesday, February 09, 2010 by JakeTrain |

With the off season officially here, we can now officially look at the 2011 season. As the days go by, I'll periodically check in and offer my opinions in a segment called Pitch and Catch. Being a Bear's fan, it's only logical to begin with the buzz stemming from Mike Martz' arrival in the Windy City. READ MORE

chicago bears

I'll get to Mike Martz in a minute. First, what the hell did the Bears really do here? Angelo and Smith were kept with the prerequisite of replacing several key coaches. I like Lovie and think he is in the top half of NFL coaches, but at a time when iconic coaches are available it's hard for me to see past what could have been.

Since this is a fantasy football post I'll just move forward by saying that Angelo's impact on the NFL draft and the 2011 fantasy season will be minimal since the Bears have traded their top two picks and the NFL is moving into an uncapped season. Angelo's biggest hurdle this off-season will be getting some defensive ends on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, the Bears will seek out some younger guys on the offensive line.

Lovie has already made his biggest contribution to the fantasy season by hiring Mike Martz. Where there is Martz, there is fantasy football buzz. How Martz' play-calling and coaching will translate into fantasy success is hard to predict but one thing is for sure: The Bears' offensive players are far more relevant for the 2010 fantasy football season than they were a couple of weeks ago.

Martz will have to alter the offense we've come to know in his previous coaching stops. He must alter it because he's playing in Chicago and not inside or in warm weather. This will be a very unique Martz offense, one that makes predicting the true values of Forte, Cutler and company tougher for the 2010 season.

Forte can't do much worse and he'll take less of a beating so I'm optimistic in a nice rebound. Devin Hester can blossom if his route running improves-something I don't see happening. Knox and Bennett are in the perfect position to be assets to fantasy teams in 2010 while Jay Cutler remains one of the riskier quarterbacks to own. Until the Bears are able to land a truly gifted wideout, Cutler's touchdown totals likely won't reach the level of more elite signal callers.

The one player I was preparing to be bullish on is Greg Olsen. I say preparing because it seemed like the Bears' coaching search highlighted the tight end position. In my eyes, Chicago was looking to tailor its new offense around Cutler and Olsen. Then Martz was hired. The same guy who all but takes the TE position off the fantasy field. Olsen is different and as I've already said this Chicago-style Martz offense will be different. The hiring of Martz still has me cooling on Olsen, but the fact that Olsen remains the best receiving threat inside the red-zone keeps me very interested in his prospects for the 2010 fantasy season. Martz must make Olsen a focal point of the offense. If Martz is successful, the Bears offense will regain some luster within the fantasy realm.

The bigger, and possibly the biggest piece to the fantasy puzzle created with Martz' hiring is simply the schedule. The Bears will be playing the NFC East and AFC East in 2010. I put a lot of weight into schedules and opponents when preparing for a fantasy season. When faced with uncertainty of how players will perform under Martz combined with a slate of tough matchups, you'd be wise to take two steps back form the buzz around the Bears when evaluating Chicago's fantasy talent for 2010.

Moving on...

Early rankings are fun. They are also meaningless with so many factors yet to be determined. However, I'm more than a little surprised to see Jamaal Charles being treated like MJD. I see a nice running back on a team looking to mirror the Patriots of old. I see the ball being spread around in the offense and I also see the need for another RB to contribute in the offense. Charles is a nice player, but I'm not ready to make him my top running back any time soon.

I'll stoke the fire since it is sure to be a story at some point. If Favre doesn't come back, what is the value of a Percy Harvin? or Sidney Rice? Chester Taylor is likely going to head towards greener pastures as well. With Brett in toe, the Vikings could make one more run at a title, leading to fantasy riches. Without him, the team looks one-dimensional, leading to fantasy gambles.

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BOXCAR Football update

Posted On Sunday, December 13, 2009 by JakeTrain |

I've spent a lengthy time away from this blog. I have simply had little time to devote with higher priorities in my life. I am going to try to offer some limited posts as we close out the season but will back at full force in the summer to get ready for the 2010 season! Read More

So many things have happened since I last posted, but I'll try to focus on some of the more meaningful tidbits during fantasy playoff time!

First and foremost is a quick comment on the "Meachem Fumble of 2009." This play directly decided the outcome of a division winner and subsequent first round bye week in my biggest money league. Needless to say, it has caused a stir around the fantasy community.

My initial feelings steered me towards thinking this was a touchdown for the Saints defense. However, the logic that the Saints become the defense upon the interception should also be applied to the turnover that occurred when Meachem picked up the ball. At that point the Saints become the offense again and Meachem scores as an offensive player. I'd still credit the Saints defense with a forced fumble but not a fumble recovery. Regardless of your opinion on what the official fantasy scoring on this play, I hope your league handled it well. In our league, our commissioner did a great job at presenting the facts and precedent that had been sent. Not everyone was happy with the decision but in the end it has been accepted and everyone moves on.

To round out this post I will just throw out some opinionated bullets:

Shonn Greene is an interesting player to own at this point in the season. Greene should see increased carries this week with Kellen Clemens starting at QB. However, the Jets are not looking good for post-season play should they suffer another loss. Once the post-season is lost, I would not be surprised to see Greene's carries trend upward to the 15-18 mark.

Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy owners should be worried. Westy might be back next week after practicing. If that happens, Westbrook likely won't get enough carries to contribute and McCoy will see a decrease in touches making him a risky play as well.

I don't want to hear any more about how Troy Palamalu's injury is the reason behind the Steelers struggles. You don't become Super Bowl champs because of one player and you don't lose to the Cleveland Browns because of one player.

Those looking for a playoff TE if your starter is rested should consider Bo Scaife of the Titans. He should post modest numbers with a touchdown or two sprinkled in during the last few weeks of the season.

I'm heavily invested in the Patriots and the only thing that worries me is a possible blizzard in Buffalo next week. I will be looking at weather reports starting tomorrow, but if the weather remains clear, I'm expecting Randy Moss to close out the season on a high note.

I'll end with the Bears. My Bears finally ran the ball a ton and won a football game. Unfortunately, they were forced to change their play-calling after Cutler had an injury to his throwing hand. This season may be lost (if you drafted Matt Forte your season is probably not too bright by now either) but the Bears would be wise to see how effective running the ball can be even if you only average 3.0 ypc.


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BOXCAR Football Premium Partner

Posted On Sunday, December 13, 2009 by JakeTrain |

BOXCAR Football would not have started this season without the support and encouragement of friends and family. One of those supporters has stepped up to the plate to become a premium partner of BOXCAR Football's future. Read More

"I will Decide" is one of his many slogans, but Tailgator Dave also enjoys following the USC Trojans and the Dallas Cowboys throughout the gridiron season. He has been supportive of this blog from the very beginning and I look forward to our continued partnership with BOXCAR Football.

You can find Tailgator Dave on Facebook or by email.

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Dissecting Your Fantasy Roster Down The Stretch

Posted On Tuesday, November 10, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Week 9 is in the books and many fantasy leagues begin the playoffs in week 1. That leaves four weeks to push your fantasy team into the playoffs. Also, trading deadlines are creeping up and owners are getting awfully desperate these days. So I figured I would serve up a few helpful things to keep in mind. Read More

BLOG NOTE: I am in the middle of several higher priority tasks right now. As a result, I just haven’t been able to devote much time to this blog. The good news is things should subside a bit by the end of the month. The bad thing is that there are still a few weeks remaining in November. I’d like to post more but right now my energy needs to be used elsewhere. I’ll try to post when I can but don’t expect much until December.

What CAN a player do vs. What HAS a player done

Preseason and even early season opinions on players need to be cast aside. Review your ENTIRE roster and determine what each player is worth to your team. Break it down week by week and list the match ups. Without bye weeks to worry about there is no reason you can’t forecast your starting lineup for the remainder of the fantasy regular season. Dissect that roster and probable starting lineups!

What is the value of a Beanie Wells in week 10 vs. Beanie Wells in Week 14 and 15? We don’t know exactly, but I think you can safely say it’s going to increase. Forecasting is not an exact science but one would think 10-15 touches against the Rams and Lions during the fantasy playoffs has more value than 8-12 touches against Seattle. Will Felix Jones, Darren Sproles, Brian Westbrook or any other RB on your roster have similar value at that point in the season?

I could right pages of details on this but the key principle is that you need to look for budget lotto tickets. If you are a middle of the road team who needs to win now, cash in Wells (by playing up his playoff schedule) for some immediate help. If you have things locked up, go get Wells so you don’t end up losing to the team who squeaked into the playoffs who had Wells on his bench.

Trimming Fat vs. Storing Fat

Aright, now don’t confuse this with what I outlined above. Finding the right fantasy fat content on your roster can go a long way towards your success heading into the colder weather. If you have quality depth on bench you should look to make a trade with a must-win-now team. However, if you don’t have quality depth, you can still use your bench to help your playoff chances.

Using essentially the same type of thinking as above, dissect your league’s waiver wire to find potential one week adds that have some value. If you are holding guys like Devery Henderson, Cadillac Williams, Kyle Orton-players that likely will not be options for most teams’ starting lineups the rest of the season-you might want to consider using your roster space differently.

If you play in a league where at least one team is streaming defenses (or you are the team streaming defenses) you might want to shed one or more players that don’t offer much value to hoard a couple of defenses. Take a look at the NFL schedule and gobble up anything that looks tasty. Drain the pool from which that team has to pick (or create your own if you are streaming) and make their choices less appetizing. The point is that even though you might not have any players to help you win on your bench you can still use those slots to make it tougher for another owner to win. After all, defense wins championships right?


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