Dissecting Your Fantasy Roster Down The Stretch

Posted On Tuesday, November 10, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Week 9 is in the books and many fantasy leagues begin the playoffs in week 1. That leaves four weeks to push your fantasy team into the playoffs. Also, trading deadlines are creeping up and owners are getting awfully desperate these days. So I figured I would serve up a few helpful things to keep in mind. Read More

BLOG NOTE: I am in the middle of several higher priority tasks right now. As a result, I just haven’t been able to devote much time to this blog. The good news is things should subside a bit by the end of the month. The bad thing is that there are still a few weeks remaining in November. I’d like to post more but right now my energy needs to be used elsewhere. I’ll try to post when I can but don’t expect much until December.

What CAN a player do vs. What HAS a player done

Preseason and even early season opinions on players need to be cast aside. Review your ENTIRE roster and determine what each player is worth to your team. Break it down week by week and list the match ups. Without bye weeks to worry about there is no reason you can’t forecast your starting lineup for the remainder of the fantasy regular season. Dissect that roster and probable starting lineups!

What is the value of a Beanie Wells in week 10 vs. Beanie Wells in Week 14 and 15? We don’t know exactly, but I think you can safely say it’s going to increase. Forecasting is not an exact science but one would think 10-15 touches against the Rams and Lions during the fantasy playoffs has more value than 8-12 touches against Seattle. Will Felix Jones, Darren Sproles, Brian Westbrook or any other RB on your roster have similar value at that point in the season?

I could right pages of details on this but the key principle is that you need to look for budget lotto tickets. If you are a middle of the road team who needs to win now, cash in Wells (by playing up his playoff schedule) for some immediate help. If you have things locked up, go get Wells so you don’t end up losing to the team who squeaked into the playoffs who had Wells on his bench.

Trimming Fat vs. Storing Fat

Aright, now don’t confuse this with what I outlined above. Finding the right fantasy fat content on your roster can go a long way towards your success heading into the colder weather. If you have quality depth on bench you should look to make a trade with a must-win-now team. However, if you don’t have quality depth, you can still use your bench to help your playoff chances.

Using essentially the same type of thinking as above, dissect your league’s waiver wire to find potential one week adds that have some value. If you are holding guys like Devery Henderson, Cadillac Williams, Kyle Orton-players that likely will not be options for most teams’ starting lineups the rest of the season-you might want to consider using your roster space differently.

If you play in a league where at least one team is streaming defenses (or you are the team streaming defenses) you might want to shed one or more players that don’t offer much value to hoard a couple of defenses. Take a look at the NFL schedule and gobble up anything that looks tasty. Drain the pool from which that team has to pick (or create your own if you are streaming) and make their choices less appetizing. The point is that even though you might not have any players to help you win on your bench you can still use those slots to make it tougher for another owner to win. After all, defense wins championships right?


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Fantasy Hangover - Week 8

Posted On Tuesday, November 03, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football
How does a quarterback throw for nearly 350 yards and not record a passing touchdown? Peyton Manning did exactly that last weekend. But that wasn’t the biggest fantasy development of week 8. For that we head to Houston where Steve Slaton is probably sleeping with a football these days. Read More

“Hot Potato” Slaton fumbled away carries for the rest of the season and his fantasy owners. One of the top ten RBs coming into the season, Slaton is in the middle of a sophomore slump. I’m never one to write off a player who fumbles after seeing Ahman Green and Tiki Barber refine their ball security skills. Still, a decreased workload knocks Slaton’s value down a few pegs and seriously hampers any chance of him being a dominant force down the stretch for your fantasy team.

Michael Turner showed some nice burst in last night’s game. Turner’s production has slipped a bit from last season but I am expecting a nice second half from him. I hope you didn’t bench Ray Rice against the “vaunted” Bronco defense. It wasn’t a historic day but the dual threat is getting plenty of touches to help his owners. Barring a collapse, the former Rutgers standout will be a top 5 pick heading into your 2010 fantasy draft.

St. Louis got one in the left column for a change. In my opinion the Rams have the least talented roster in the league. Everyone knows Steven Jackson is getting the ball and he still manages to find enough room to run. If I’m in a keeper league I’d try to pry him away from his current owner and bank on a much better supporting cast in 2010.

In a day with several unusual stat lines, MJD’s 177 yards on the ground looks weird next to 8 carries. Where did Sims-Walker go? I jumped on the bandwagon but I’m not thrilled to see Garrard struggle.

The loss of Kenny Phillips in the Giants’ secondary hasn’t been fixed. You can talk about all the injuries and make excuses but the defensive backs lack leadership. Once they are exploited they have not shown an ability to bear down and make plays. Poor tackling is just as inexcusable in the second half as it is the first half. On a side note, I think it’s time to buy Hakeem Nicks. Steve Smith is a fine receiver but he is destined for a possession role. Nicks is the fantasy fruit you should be picking. I’m not sure if he’ll evolve into the better fantasy wideout this season but he should be the better guy to own next year.

Rex Ryan and his staff have made some rookie mistakes this year and it’s going to cost them a playoff appearance. Romo came to play again and Miles Austin caught another touchdown. I’m really uncomfortable with Dallas’ players fantasy wise. I may ok with Austin as a WR2, but Witten and the backfield are a crapshoot with low fantasy ceilings.

Last but not least…Brett Favre still doesn’t look right in a non-Packers uniform but I can’t bet against him in real life or fantasy. Minnesota’s defense is somewhat overshadowed by Favre and the offense but as long as they stay healthy the fantasy totals should keep piling up for the offense.

Bears Corner

Good job Chicago! Beating the Browns doesn’t really offer much insight into the state of this team. Can the Bears stop the pass? I don’t think so. Can the Bears improve their rush attack? I’d like to hope so. Is Jay Cutler going to “manage” his aggressiveness? Not this year.

With their backs against the wall, the Bears take on the Arizona Cardinals this week. Kurt Warner has absolutely picked apart defenses when given time to throw making the match up an ugly one. A win would restore a sliver of hope in my mind, however an expected loss should leave the Bears floundering to finish the season with eight wins.


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