Choose Your Own Adventure In KC

Posted On Monday, August 31, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football newsRemember those wonderful "novels" back in school? You didn't really read anything but flipped from page to page to see how long you could go before the story ended. Thanks to the Chiefs, fantasy football owners have a new set of adventures to choose from as we get ready to kick off the 2009 NFL season! Read More


fantasy football news

Cassell is out with an injury but the Chiefs have not yet confirmed the extent of that injury. Furthermore, Head Coach Todd Haley has just fired OC Chan Gailey prior to the start of today’s practice!

I guess Kansas City's overhaul of the offense wasn't complete. I'm staying far away from the Chiefs right now. Heck the entire playbook might be changed less than two weeks prior to the start of the season! Absolute craziness.

I'm not sure I'm buying LJ anymore. On the other hand, if KC has to turn to Thigpen for an extended period of time, Bowe might actually benefit.

Pierre Thomas's fantasy stock rose throughout the offseason only to decline in recent weeks due to question marks about his health and workload entering 2009. Following the Saints latest game HC Sean Payton was asked about Thomas:

Is there concern that Pierre Thomas won’t be ready for the season opener and when will you make the first round of cuts?

“Number one, there would be some concern, although I think very little that he wouldn’t be ready for Detroit, at least based on the information now. The feeling is he’ll be ready for that game and would probably be listed as questionable for Thursday night’s game.”


Fantasy Football Librarian recently touched on some players who could drop out of fantasy football's top 20.

The Ravens kicking job has the potential to be quite productive for fantasy owners. Here's the latest from Ravens Insider:
“It's apparent that Ravens head coach John Harbaugh wants second-year kicker Steve Hauschka to win the place-kicking duties…If he plays well against the Falcons, Hauschka gets the job. If he doesn't, the Ravens will try to re-sign Stover.”


Both New York teams offer fantasy owners below average wide receivers. However, someone has to catch the ball and therefore, each team attractively employs a few bargain options for the 2009 fantasy shopper. Steve Smith will undoubtedly see his fantasy stock rise due to an expected increase of targets, but rookie Hakeem Nicks also deserves a look. His recent performance should translate into a slight bump in ADP this week.

Speaking of rookie WRs, Bruno Boys offers their opinions on them in thier latest post.

Carson Palmer’s injury woes continue, as he is still not practicing in pads. Already a risk in the minds of most fantasy owners, Palmer’s fantasy value continues to suffer while he is sidelined. Those drafting this week could take full advantage by grabbing the former overall #1 pick as their backup QB. I still like his value and expect a rebound.

Fins fans are growingly becoming unenthused about Chad Henne’s prospects of being Miami’s future QB. I still think Denver’s Chris Simms is the best backup QB with a shot to make a fantasy impact, but Henne is in the discussion. He could be that guy who comes out of nowhere ala Derrick Anderson a few years back. Pennington does have an injury history.

I you are not sold on Roy Williams being “the guy” in the Dallas passing attack, perhaps you should invest in Miles Austin?

If you think troiphies are a bit childish to award to the winner of your favorite fantasy football league, you may want to consider a t-shirt instead.


BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

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A Little About Fantasy Football Auctions

Posted On Thursday, August 27, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football auctionI prefer drafts to auctions but when a league starts exceeding twelve teams, you really have to admire the structure an auction draft can have on the competitive balance of your fantasy football league. So why not dive into some of my thoughts on auctions, auction values and buzz around them! Read More

Auction Leagues Are Better Than Draft Leagues Myth

First, I would like to tackle this myth that people have about auctions being the only REAL test of whether you are good at fantasy football. We’ve all come across the auction loyalists who stop listening to you when you tell them you signed up for a draft league. These auctioneers will not step within 50 feet of a regular serpentine draft and boast of their godly fantasy football IQ even if they finish in last place.

Okay, I might be exaggerating just a hair but the notion is ridiculous. It is perfectly fine to develop strong preferences within activities you enjoy. Whether it’s how you like your coffee or the type of shoes you wear, people know what they like. That’s cool, but you are not given a medal for wearing Nike shoes. It’s a personal choice, nothing more.

Here’s what you need to know. Fantasy auctions are tougher on beginners or those with average NFL knowledge. Why? Because you don’t simply choose a player when it’s your turn. The added strategy does make auction style formats more suited for league’s with a full complement of competent owners but it doesn’t make them the holy grail of fantasy football.

I can argue it is harder gaining an edge in a format that allows fewer opportunities to gain that edge. If anyone can truly win a draft league, then why do people win multiple fantasy titles on a regular basis? It takes skill (and a little luck) to win a fantasy football championship regardless of whether you use a snake style draft or an auction!

Auction Values

I’m not an auction hater. I soak up strategy and enjoy analyzing the best player to nominate as much as I like bidding up a player. It’s fun to get “stuck” with a player and have to swiftly shift gears in the middle of draft to compensate. It’s FUN!

However, nothing ruins a fantasy football season more than not having decent auction values for each player. Yea, you can reach for a player in a regular draft too, but you still get a pick in the next round. In auctions, you have a limited amount of dollars to spend and if you don’t use them well it could cost you a lot more than picking a player a round early. Do yourself a favor and go get some auction values before you head into a draft.

Research different strategies to get the most value out of every fantasy dollar you spend. I have not done enough fantasy auctions to offer advice into specific strategies but FFToday's Matt Waldman offers a great, detailed article on employing fantasy football auction draft strategies HERE.

The Live In-Person Auction

Being a part of a live, in-person auction is an experience in itself. Even if you don’t participate, the sheer fun of being around the splendid candor of a room full of adults playing a game that pits football knowledge against each other is a rewarding human experience.

Not only do you have to battle the wits and verbal jabs from your counterparts but several external forces can have a negative impact on your draft results. Mentally preparing for these types of hurdles is essential. Draft parties range from mild to wild but basically you have three major forces at play: scenery, food/drink, and time.

fantasy football auction

Depending on where your league likes to host such fantasy drafts, there is likely to be a few things to look at during the course of your draft. First and foremost is the ability to see and hear the bids. Knowing who made the bid is as crucial as what the bid actually is so seat yourself accordingly. Draft boards can be handy but not if you can’t see them! Of course don’t let yourself ogle so much you are unaware of what is going on for more than a minute or two. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule.

Food and drink are a must but do put some thought into what you get. Do you really want to spend 5 minutes or more in the bathroom 30 minutes into the draft? Enjoying the day is fine but if you start slurring names other than TJ…not only will you wake up with a headache, but also you now have three months to look at the team you put together.

The duration of a draft can be grueling and you have to pace yourself. Ok well you don’t have to pace yourself so that you are as spry in the end as you were at the beginning but you need to make sure you are at least better off than your peers. Also, don’t try and “squeeze” in your draft around other commitments. If you play in a league that makes the draft a true event then treat it like one.

FFToolbox offers some more auction tips HERE.

The Live Online Auction

Do yourself a favor and find time to do a mock auction draft online if you are new to auctions or fantasy football in general. The online experience presents the fantasy football owner a slightly different set of challenges as the in-person auction draft.

If you are new to fantasy football, make sure you have the right computer and Internet connection to handle the auction application. Next, make sure you have the atmosphere you need for the duration of the draft. Go to the bathroom before you start and don’t try to navigate eating your dinner and left-clicking at the same time. You might be able to but why go there?

There are a few others, but really the only other thing you need to know besides having good auction values to start from is knowing which players share names like Adrian Peterson. You don’t want to be that guy!

Just a quick note: I am planning on attending a local 16-team auction September 6th. I’m a mutual friend of several owners and offer advice and impartial commish-type of opinions when asked. Since auction values for deep leagues are often hard to come by I’ll try to post them here on the blog afterward for anyone who wants to take a peek.


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Fantasy Football Sleepers Of 2009 And More

Posted On Tuesday, August 25, 2009 by JakeTrain |

If you receive my twitter updates you would know my computer was attacked over the weekend. The end result is that I still haven’t been able to completely clean everything and have lost a few things including all the progress I had on my 2009 fantasy football rankings. Needless to say this sets me back a bit.

Nonetheless, I thought this week's Hobo Soup would be a good time to share my opinions on some of the guys I like and dislike heading into the NFL season. So here are my positional fantasy picks for likely rebounds, most underrated, most overrated, etc. as we approach the kickoff to the 2009 NFL season. Read More


fantasy football
Most Likely To Rebound

QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – I’m not expecting him to re-establish himself as a top-5 fantasy QB, but feel comfortable drafting him as my starter. Palmer’s injuries have made fantasy owners forget that he is still a great NFL QB and he has enough talent around him to put together a useful season in a balanced offense.

RB Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs – Another guy I like entering the 2009 NFL season is LJ. The guy has raw talent and if there was ever a year you could really see the motivation Johnson desperately needs to be productive, it is now. Johnson doesn’t have the same mileage on the tires of other backs his age and hasn’t lost his ability to get the ball into the end zone.

WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints – Colston may not close in on 100 receptions like he did in 2007 but 80+ is realistic. He is the top receiving option in a pass-heavy offense with one of the game’s elite passers, Dree Brees, throwing him the ball. Pierre Thomas’s emergence and the presence of Reggie Bush will also prevent defenses from regularly keying in Colston. Expect a rebound into the top-10 WRs with top-5 within reach.

TE Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams – Ok so this old-timer isn’t going to be in discussions about the best fantasy football TE in 2009, but he is an above average pass-catcher that shouldn’t be overlooked in deeper leagues. The Rams will be less than stellar in the passing game but they have to throw the ball to someone. If he can remain healthy a final line of 500-600 yards and 5-6 TDs is realistic considering he should get 5+ targets a game, further illustrating the true depth at the position this year.

Most Underrated

QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – I am not a huge fan of him and loathe Dick Jauron but right now I think Edwards is being vastly underrated. Edwards has more to work with this year with Jackson and Lynch providing a nice duo rushing and Terrell Owens taking pressure off of Lee Evans. Parrish is healthy again and gives them nice production as a wideout and kick returner. Trent Edwards might be the perfect QB2 if you choose to wait on a starter.

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but the Steelers’ RBBC should do a better job at keeping everyone healthy while giving each RB a more defined role in the offense, collectively taking the pressure off any one guy to perform. Mendenhall is in a great position to put up quality RB3 numbers and with moderate injury concerns with Moore and Parker the Illini product has quality upside.

fantasy footballWR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – I talked about Jackson previously in my targets article but he bears more notice in 2009. He has steadily progressed in both opportunity and production in each year of his career. San Diego will have to rely less on LT this year and with Antonio Gates showing his age, Jackson might be the next best offensive fantasy weapon on their roster.

TE Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – Celek will be a steal at just about any point he is likely to be drafted. Defenses will have an even tougher time keying in on players in Philly’s pass-friendly fantasy attack. McNabb has always been able to find the TE and HC Andy Reid has never been afraid to use the TE. I wouldn’t be shocked if Celek finished the season ahead of Tony Gonzalez.

Most Overrated

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Most veteran fantasy cohorts know he is worth more in real life than in fantasy but for me it’s more about the philosophy of the offense he runs limiting his fantasy potential The Steelers do not want to throw the ball to win football games. Instead, they just want to throw enough to win. Why else do you think Big Ben takes so many hits trying to keep plays alive? He’s just not in a position to succeed as a fantasy football quarterback, limiting his upside.

RB Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – Count me in the group that feels LT is not going to deliver a 1200+ yard, RB1 type of season. I’ve touched on his workload previously and feel Norv Turner will be better able and more inclined to let Phillip Rivers attack defenses through the air in 2009. In the end, I believe Tomlinson will deliver numbers closer to a RB2 and chances are slim you’ll have a chance to get him that cheap.

WR Chad Ochincinco, Cincinnati Bengals – Here’s a guy that has been undervalued as often as he has been overvalued. Ochocinco may like to be in the spotlight but the truth is he has lost a little speed and Coles might be the better deep threat. Palmer’s return will lead to better stats this season but not enough to justify making him one of the first WR2’s off the board.

TE Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints – The track record speaks for itself. Talented and tough, Shockey often leaves fantasy owners lacking the production they expected when they drafted him. Too many injuries and an attitude that can flare up (note his recent skirmish with Houston) attach too much risk for any fantasy owner to take at such a deep position.

Best Risk/Reward Pick

QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – His running game has abandoned him and he’s on the older side, but few QBs possess the deadly fantasy combination of elite skill and friendly offensive system to produce premium quarterback production as McNabb. With additions to the passing game and offensive line, only injuries and age can stop McNabb from finishing amongst the best QBs in fantasy football. Not a sure bet due to his injury risk, but one worth taking in my estimate.

RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – I’ve touted McFadden in recent weeks and still believe the future is bright for the second-year running back out of Arkansas in 2009. Already expected to assume a bigger workload this season; the injuries to the receiving corps should yield more touches in early weeks than previously planned. The risk of taking McFadden lies in injuries and his ability to withstand the added workload he will see this NFL season.

fantasy football sleepersWR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills – An afterthought in many leagues because he hasn’t produced a solid fantasy season since 2006, Lee is part of arguably the best offense the Bills have assembled since Peerless Price was a fantasy commodity. Evans will benefit from having Terrell Owens suiting up on the other side and Trent Edwards is entering his third year at the helm of the offense.

TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers – No offense will be as different to fantasy owners than the 49ers will be in 2009. The red and gold are going to lineup each week and “hit you in the mouth” and that style of play will benefit TE Vernon Davis. Despite being told to leave the field during a game last season, new HC Mike Singletary will need an effective passing game for Shaun Hill to manage. Davis has the size and athleticism to illicit far more than the 49 targets he received a year ago.

Favorite Sleepers


fantasy football sleepersQB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Jacksonville disappointed in 2008 and the bad taste it left in Garrard’s mouth has prompted the Jags QB to get in better shape over the off-season. The addition of veteran Torry Holt should help the Jaguars on third down and sustain drives. Add in Garrard’s rushing ability and I think you have a QB that will out-produce his draft position, especially in league that score only four points per passing TD.

RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – The more I look at what Smith was able to do last year, the more excited I get about his chances to further develop in 2009. A sound bet to eclipse 1200 total yards and 10 TDs, Smith is a great RB2 that can be had in the late-third round.

WR Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins – PPR leaguers should put a big fat star next to Camarillo’s name on draft day. His final line in 2008 doesn’t represent the type of player Camarillo was evolving into with Chad Pennington throwing him the ball. Similar to other wideouts like Bernard Berrian, Donald Driver and Torry Holt, Camarillo averaged over 7 targets per game in 2008 as one of his QB’s favorite options. A full season of health should make him a nice WR3.

TE Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers – The Packers offense and passing game in particular did quite well in 2008 without Lee contributing much because he was needed to help out an inexperienced offensive line. Expect Green Bay to allow Lee to run down the field more in 2009, resulting in numbers closer to his 2007 line of 48 receptions, 575 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Backup To Have Fantasy Impact

QB Chris Simms, Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton is mediocre at best and isn’t the best option to get the ball into Brandon Marshall’s hands. Simms is capable and once given the chance will wrangle away the starting job for good. Keeper league owners should bump him up their boards.

fantasy footballRB Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers – As noted above, I lack the faith in LT as others. Regardless of whether Tomlinson goes down with injuries Sproles has earned more carries and showed he can be productive backing up the legendary LT.

WR Steve Breaston, Arizona Cardinals – Not only will Breaston be involved as the third WR in the Arizona offense but an injury to either one of the starting Cardinal wideouts presents further upside to Breaston’s fantasy value.

TE Martellus Bennett, Dallas Cowboys – Dallas’ passing attack will feature the TE position quite a bit, while employing plenty of two-TE sets. Witten will draw plenty of double-teams to give Bennett room to work. An increased workload for the former Aggie should allow him to build on last season’s four TDs even if Witten is healthy throughout the entire season.


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Ed Reed Risky For IDPers

Posted On Saturday, August 22, 2009 by JakeTrain |

NFL fans were immersed with Favre and Vick headlines this week. But what else went on that might be interesting for fantasy owners to know? This week's installment of BOXCAR Blitz provides a few more links to recent NFL fantasy football news and opinions. Read More

fantasy football news

I'll start off with a nugget for those who play in IDP leagues. Ed Reed let everyone know he is still feeling soreness in his neck and shoulder areas due to an impingment. With the contact Reed will face in the NFL it's hard not to think Reed will be limited or held off the field at some point this season.

Bruno Boys' ADP Watch highlighted a few of the RBs being taken earlier as the season nears.

Favre returned and didn't do much. I really think Favre will lose as many games as he will win for them. As I touched on in my previous post about NFC North QBs, Favre's "ideal situation" with the Vikings isn't so ideal for fantasy owners.

Since I've had a few inquiries, those of you who like the BOXCAR Babes portion of my blog may want to check out lingeriebowl.com for more attractive fantasy football leagues.

The knocks on Jay Cutler's fantasy value this season usually start with his lack of WRs but I keep trying to tell my friends and family into fantasy football that the Bears are still a running team and don't want Cutler throwing for 4000 yards. Chicago Bears OC Ron Turner reminded Cutler of that recently and those of you who have not realized the true ceiling of Cutler in 2009 should take note.

Newly signed Bills top pick DE/OLB Aaron Maybin has a nice video interview on Buffalo's official site.


In light of the Favre and Vick sagas I went a little lighter than usual. I'm also currently working on my 2009 fantasy football rankings and should have those ready by tomorrow!

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

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Fantasy Football & A Movie: Getting An Edge On Drafts And Auctions

Posted On Friday, August 21, 2009 by JakeTrain |

So you have joined a fantasy football league or three for the 2009 NFL season and you have a draft coming up. Or perhaps your long-standing 16-team auction league has its reservations set at your favorite watering hole. Many fantasy leagues have been filled as we are entering the heart of the 2009 fantasy football drafting season. I’ve got a couple of drafts coming up myself so I thought I’d go over a few things to keep in mind at this special time of year. Read More

"Why is the rabbit unafraid? Because he's smarter than the panther.”

You don’t have to know the most to claim a fantasy football title. One of the most popular questions any veteran fantasy football loyalist will entertain from less seasoned players is some form of “What is the biggest thing I need to do right in order to win?”

My answer is always short and sweet. “You need more than one thing to go right.” Then I usually add to my answer after getting puzzling looks and “wow that was helpful” responses. So the next piece of wisdom I impart on people is telling them luck is a very important element to winning. At some point during the season you’ll be on one end or the other and you must realize luck is part of the game. Do not whine about it. Just deal with it and always remember you might be on the other end next week. Of course when you are unlucky in the playoffs or half your roster is injured there is reason to gripe. Just don’t get nasty and stop being active because it will ruin things for the rest of the owners.

Since those seeking advice are usually hoping for more than “luck” in an answer I give them something they can apply and send them on their way. Know your competition. Know them well enough to converse and offer competitive banter as well as logical and reasonable trade offers. Know their tendencies. How active are they on the waiver wire? What is their favorite team? Which players do they like or dislike? Knowing the other owners in your league can not only help you outsmart them but it will also make the season more enjoyable.

When you know what your opponents can and can’t do, how they prefer to go about their business and what really ticks them off you can adapt to whatever they are likely to do before they even do it.

“A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow”

If you head into 2009 with the intent on paying a little closer attention to your competition then you are already improving as a fantasy football owner. I love to analyze data, it’s part of the reason I love playing fantasy football. However, it is often my biggest obstacle to overcome during a fantasy season. I strategize too much sometimes and have put myself in huge holes because I didn’t place enough focus on the present. Falling in love with sleepers and breakout candidates can hurt you as much as showing them no love. Always head into a draft with an open mind and try not to be too high or low on a player and be careful when selecting players to place on your Do Not Draft lists.

Likewise, you don’t want to go into an auction thinking I am going to pay whatever I have to get player X. Be informed about players who might be available you’re your turn to pick comes up, but basing you draft or auction plans around one or two players you plan on getting can leave your head spinning with the time counting down.

Your best bet when entering any fantasy football season is to have a good idea about the values of players and not trying to figure out which of three WRs you believe will be on the board in the third round because you will have two RBs and don’t like taking a QB that early.
“Did you know that you can make fire from ice?”
Know what you are capable of during the season. If you are not going to be able to spend 10 hours a week looking at your fantasy football team(s) then try to draft a roster that will allow you to “Set it and Forget it.” Pass on the injury risks and keep an eye on the bye weeks. This type of strategy is best used for those playing for fun or are beginners. However, this can work well for fantasy football gurus who have horrible luck at making lineup decisions each week. If you can fill your positions with a distinct hierarchy of talent you can reduce your chances of “starting the wrong guy” syndrome.

On the flip side, if you know you will be extremely active following the NFL, injury reports and the latest news daily throughout the season you can afford to take more risks on players since you’ll be able to replace those who don’t pan out much easier than the owner who checks his team once or twice a week. You can also employ a less balanced approach to your draft or auction such as loading up at one position or reaching for a player because you know you will a great value later.

Having skill in fantasy football is as much about creating a roster that you can manage as it is about knowing NFL players’ and fantasy values. The team with the best players doesn’t always win each week. Putting your best possible lineup together on a weekly basis will help to consistently be competitive each week. You don’t have to know every survival tactic to get out of the woods alive.


The Edge (1997) Starring: Anthony Hopkins, Alec Baldwin and Elle Macpherson
Directed by Lee Tomahori

This movie was a perfect choice for this week since I had the outdoors on my mind and fantasy football drafts coming up. A fantasy football season is a grind to survive the elements and using whatever resources you can find on the waiver wire to fill patch the holes. Sometimes you have to put your trust into someone who has burned you in the past by making a trade that helps another team as much as it does yours.

By the end of the season, you will have had to overcome more than a few challenges if you are to hoist a fantasy football trophy. You will need to be insightful and never get too down on your current situation. My first fantasy football title came after I started the season 2-6 before winning all but one of the following weeks before rolling over higher seeds in the playoffs. I was amazed at how much I learned in one season without even realizing it and I think Alec Baldwin’s character felt the same way by the end of this movie.




That concludes this week's movie. Good luck to those who are holding thier fantasy football auctions and drafts this week. My 2009 fantasy football rankings will be out soon! BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

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Fantasy Football Rankings: 2009 Sophomore RB's

Posted On Tuesday, August 18, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Vacation was good but with NFL exhibition games being played, the fantasy football season beckons. I encourage people new to fantasy football to do something many veteran players overlook: Take a look a what happened last year, specifically trends or outliers. I’m not talking stats or numbers; I’m talking around the league, what stood out and what do you remember from last year’s grind. Read More


I jot down a few things at the end of every fantasy season, a good habit to get into if you like to be competitive. I write down things I might want to keep in mind for next year. One of the things that stood out from the my list this year was:
“Changing of the guard at RB, young guys everywhere.”
An array of reasons contributed to a lot of younger guys seeing time and raising their fantasy stock. And what’s crazier is that there are even more guys who were limited during the 2008 NFL season while gaining a year of seasoning. This is truly a changing of the guard at fantasy football’s most coveted position.

Young guys have limited track records but the sophomores should now be more adjusted to the length and amount of work that goes into playing a full slate of games in an NFL season. And this year’s class is chocked full of interesting fantasy talent.

Top Of The Class

1. Matt Forte – A top-five pick in most fantasy football leagues, Forte is a durable back that will be fed the ball in a run-first offense. His receptions should come down this year with Cutler more adept at getting the ball to the WRs and TEs.

2. Steve Slaton – In the final seven games of the season, Slaton averaged 23 touches per game. Houston also went 5-2 during that stretch. Coincidence? Like the Texans, fantasy owners will lean on Slaton as a low-end RB1 fantasy football leagues with 12+ teams.

I like both of these guys but I’ll gladly take Slaton as the better value. Cutler and the Bears still need to show they can throw AND CATCH the ball downfield to prevent defenses from stacking up against the run and counting on Orlando Pace to stay healthy is risky.

Room To Grow

3. Chris Johnson – I have to admit, that Thanksgiving Day game last year stuck to my stomach like a plate full of turkey and dressing but Johnson was flat out faster than everyone on the field last year and I don't see any reason to think he'll lose a step in 2009. What was even more impressive was seeing his patience develop so quickly, timing his burst to hit the holes.

4. Darren McFadden – He showed enough in 2008 to make the coaching staff realize they need to make him a bigger part of the offense. He’ll still split time with Fargas and might not start the season as the offical starter, but he’s a young playmaker who should get twice as many touches in 2009.

5. Kevin Smith – Detroit’s season may have been lackluster but it wasn’t Smith’s fault. Detroit has a new coaching staff in place and should get better play from the QB position, two keys to providing Smith with double digit TDs in 2009.

Smith might be the best pick of these three because of consistency. McFadden is the upside play here, while Johnson’s worth will come down to touchdowns…Johnson’s big play ability isn’t going to disappear in 2009 so he’s my favorite of the three.

Breakout Darkhorses

6. Ray Rice – McGahee isn’t the featured back in Baltimore. Rice is still young and learning the offense, but Cam Cameron is still the OC. I think his 54 targets in 2008 goes up, making Rice a great value in PPR leagues.

7. Rashard Mendenhall – I don’t have any decent numbers to write down to help convince you this guy will be good in 2009. All I can tell you is that the Steelers struggled mightily close to the goal last season and Mendenhall is the answer. His carries will be limited but 500 yards and a bunch of TDs makes for a pretty good RB3.

I wouldn’t consider these guys true sleepers because the upside isn’t tremendous but both should be put into positions to prosper this season. A mini breakout to become a RB3 is possible with each of these guys. In PPR leagues the choice is Rice, in TD formats Mendenhall gets the nod.

And The Rest

8. Jonathan Stewart – Williams turned in such a fine second half last season, I’m worried Stewart, coming off an Achilles injury, will be able to garner enough touches to be consistently productive in 2009. At this point, I’m only grabbing him as a handcuff to Williams.

9. Felix Jones – He surprised me last season. But a healthy Marion Barber and Tashard Choice’s presence will limit his touches in 2009 making him more of a RB4 in 2009.

10. Tim Hightower – The situation around him should have a negative impact on his fantasy usefulness. A RB in a passing offense with a first round pick for competition and he actually lost weight despite being run down at the end of the season.

11. Tashard Choice – He’s fighting for touches and will need an injury to make him more than waiver wire fodder or a bye week replacement in deeper leagues.

12. Jamaal Charles – Nothing special here. If LJ goes down, the Chiefs will probably end up passing more, not handing it to Charles.

13. Michael Bush – He’s technically a sophomore after missing his true rookie season. He’s long removed from his Louisville days and shouldn’t be rostered in all but the deepest of leagues.

14. Peyton Hillis – Denver is loaded at the RB position and touches will be scarce.

Stewart could prove me wrong. He certainly has the talent but his counterpart, DeAngelo Williams, has proved me wrong on multiple occasions as well. Par for the course I suppose. If I had to choose from this list, I’m selecting Felix Jones. FYI Jones returned kicks last year and some leagues count return yards!

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

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Vacation Calls

Posted On Sunday, August 09, 2009 by JakeTrain |

I am on vacation this week so there will not be any posts until I return. I just didn’t have the time to put something decent together before I left and had other priorities to attend to in preparation for my trip.
 

I will be thinking of new topics to discuss and working on my rankings while sipping a few frosty beveridges. I’ll also shed some light on how I tend to rank/project players. It's somewhat of a hybrid tiering system that simplifies the statistical projection aspect of fantasy football rankings.


Have a great week.
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It's All About Value At Quarterback

Posted On Wednesday, August 05, 2009 by JakeTrain |


Regardless of your league scoring, your fantasy QB has a great impact on your overall success. Unless you play in a league that awards six points per passing TD and doesn’t deduct points for interceptions, filling your QB slot is all about value vs. opportunity cost. Note that I mentioned league scoring. Always start any rankings, evaluations or trade offers by referencing your league’s scoring. With that said, let's take a look at three potential value picks for your fantasy football team. Read More



When you select a QB, be it through auction or draft, it’s essential to find the best value without passing up an option at another position. Overpaying for a quarterback can single-handedly cost you a fantasy football title. One of the first places I look for deflated prices and prime QB value is amongst those returning from injury. Do your homework, get the facts and follow the updates throughout Training Camp on guys who are hungry to get back on the football field. Coming into the 2009 fantasy season, three guys standout as potential value picks: Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer and Matt Hasselbeck. All three have proven capable of delivering quality stats expected of a starting fantasy QB yet all three have deflated value due to injury concerns. Would I invest in any them? Let’s take a closer look.


Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

The oft-injured Houston starter has only injuries preventing him from being a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Schaub averaged 250 passing yards over his first seven games and threw 10 TDs against 8 INTs. These stats made him more of a “match up QB,” or a quarterback you’d use in a QB platoon, starting them against favorable match ups. However, Schaub returned from injury in Week 14 and finished the regular season averaging 320 yards and posting 5 TDs over the final four games of the season. Even when you factor in his 400 yard performance skewing the average a bit these numbers are more in line with a top 12 fantasy QB.

Matt Schaub

The guys surrounding Matt Schaub in Houston add to his appeal as a fantasy starter. Andre Johnson is a proven veteran target and Kevin Walter netted 60 receptions and 8 TDs in a secondary role. Running back Steve Slaton is also a threat in the passing game after recording 50 receptions as a rookie in 2008. Furthermore, only four tight ends caught more passes than Owen Daniels last season.

Schaub needs to stay healthy, but the guy can play and is still improving as an NFL passer. Keep in mind 2008 was only his second year starting. Fantasy quarterbacks with his level of production, no matter the chances of being truncated by injuries, cannot be ignored. I consider Schaub a “snake-pick” because in many leagues his price will fall so low he will surprise fantasy owners and if you do take him you will need to take some extra precautions like securing another QB. That and he is ideal for those drafting at the turn, going QB/QB to ensure you can pair Schaubber with another quality option.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Palmer’s elbow cost him 2008 but he says it’s healthy and I believe him because the Bengals are going into the season with popular 2008 waiver wire add J. T. O’Sullivan as their primary backup to the former Trojan. If you were worried about his recent time away from the field, it was simply bronchitis. Nothing arm or elbow related, he’s back on the field now.

carson palmer

Palmer is one of the best QBs in the NFL, but the offense is going to be re-tooled for 2009. Housh left for the left coast, but the Bengals brought in a guy I like to have a great season in Lavernaues Coles. Opposite him, is the infamous circus that is Chad Ochocinco. Together they form a very capable, veteran duo.

Palmer and the Bengals are going to scale back some of the passing this year while they try to better establish the run in 2009. This might hurt his overall passing yardage but keeping defenses honest should lead to a better TD: INT ratio. Overall, I like Palmer to be good but not great this season. His upside is not 4,000 and 30 anymore, but he’s plenty capable of putting together a fine fantasy season. Are there really 12 better options at quarterback? So he plays the Steelers and Titans four times, is that really enough reason to pass on him if you are one of the last teams without a QB?

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle passing attack was ravaged by injuries in 2008. The numbers just don’t add value to the conversation. In 2007, Hasselbeck just missed the 4,000 and 30 mark. At 34, he isn’t quite finished, but that won’t prevent fantasy owners from devaluing him entering the 2009 NFL season.

I do think Hasselbeck’s injury woes will have some lasting affects on him this season, but I also think a healthier team around him will make him a suitable QB to own. Housh was added and Carlson is ready to get more involved in the passing attack. Burleson and Branch are fine secondary targets. Hasselbeck shouldn’t be counted on as an everyday starter for 2009, but he is someone to consider depending on your other quarterback. The difference between Hasselbeck and the previous QBs mentioned is his decline in production will make him a decent backup fantasy QB, as opposed to being a starter like Palmer and Schaub. Throw in the injury risk and you don’t have a valuable fantasy asset on your roster. You have a guy that may start only once for you during the season.

Some closing thoughts

I typically do not pay for QBs. I go into a draft or auction with a set limit and stick to it. I believe it’s better to get good value than to pay market value at the QB position (I do stray from this strategy once you enter a league starting 2 quarterbacks). More often than not, an owner investing in one of the top six quarterbacks will not bother adding a decent back up QB. Adding more risk to a high draft pick is something I try to avoid. Instead, getting two guys from the 8-14 range reduces the risk of each pick and also comes at a far greater value. In other words, take on a little less production from your QB slot and reduce the risk of having an injury severely damage your chances of winning a fantasy championship. To better leverage the situation, do your homework and look at the schedules for each QB, not just the bye weeks.

Sometimes you have less control over the value of a particular player. You can’t stop Bob from taking your guy two rounds before you were willing to take him. And if Paul decides he wants to build his team around Aaron Rodgers he’s going to pony more dollars at auction than you are. It’s all about value at the QB position. Don’t get sucked in! Know the value of all quarterbacks heading into a draft or auction and patiently wait for the quarterback that falls in your lap.


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BOXCAR Blitz: Cutler Looks Good, LJ Q&A

Posted On Sunday, August 02, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Jay Cutler will be written about in some form or fashion every single day for the next several months. Bears camp has started and Cutler is getting early praise. Read More

The little note I found to be of particular interest is this:

"Determined to stay sharp, Cutler threw passes to Bears wide receivers and tight end Greg Olsen in the weeks leading up to training camp when players weren’t required to be at Halas Hall."


First and foremost it shows Cutler and Olsen are taking on leadership roles in the offense. Secondly, it seems each of them knows they need the other to enjoy success. Thirdly, they are motivated and hungry. Maybe it's me, but today's professional athletes don't always get excited about putting in extra time in the last few weeks before the grind of a grueling season begins. I've already moved Olsen into my top 5 TE's this season, but I'm wondering if I'm selling him short.

fantasy football news

The Blitz starts this week in Arizona where newly signed Beanie Wells got hurt. Wells and Hightower have lost weight and both appear to feel lighter and faster, however will they wear down?

Tarvaris Jackson's knee injury has added further drama to Minnesota's quarterback battle. The injury hasn't given Brad Childress enough reason to bring in another QB. Has it cost him the starting job?

I'm touting Darren McFadden as a player to target in 2009. After looking at film from last season, Tom Cable wants to get him more touches. McFadden will steadily climb ADP rankings the closer we get to NFL opening day so grab him now!

I also advocated putting faith into Larry Johnson last week and there is a nice Q & A with the running back available on the team's site. Johnson has plenty to prove and he has matured as a result of last season's events.

Julius Peppers spoke about his contract issues this summer in an interview with the Charlotte Observer.

Giants wide receiver Steve Smith is confident he can fill the void left by Plaxico Burress. I recently wrote about Smith being a guy who should capitalize on the increase of balls thrown his way.

If you happen to land Colts TE Dallas Clark on your fantasy roster in 2009 you might want to follow his blog. Speaking of TEs, considering Shockey for your fantasy squad? Shockey says he isn't limited at all in this Q & A from the Saints official site.

Jarvis Moss left Broncos camp and is considering retirement. Out in Seattle veteran gaurd Mike Wahle was released after failing a physical, likely ending his NFL career.

That's all for this week folks!

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