Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 8

Posted On Friday, October 30, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football start sit week 8
Several divisional games highlight week 8 as fantasy owners enter the second half of the fantasy season. Trades have been made, waiver wire claims processed and busts have been written off. Alas, a few bye weeks remain to pester fantasy owners. Who should you plug in this week? Read More

I am staying away from that little game up in Lambeau this week because emotions will be off the charts. It’s going to be a nice game to watch, but as far as fantasy prognostication goes you can throw trends out the window. This game will have a playoff atmosphere and anything can happen.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Marc Bulger and David Garrard are easy calls this week but if you missed out on those guys and need a one week stop-gap, Sanchez is in an ideal position to post solid numbers. New York’s defense should give the offense plenty of opportunities and good field position. Additionally, Jerricho Cotchery should lineup opposite Braylon Edwards for the first time and they will play against rookie corners.

Sit: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – The Smith bandwagon has enough supporters to warrant mentioning him here. The Niners OL is not playing well and is not likely to stop the ferocious pass rush of the Colts.

S and P: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – How can you sit a quarterback playing the Browns? The Bears may decide to actually run the ball 30 times but you can’t bank on that happening this season. Cutler will be slinging the ball around one way or another and a quality match up puts him in the start column this week.

RB

Start: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – The Broncos are the toughest to run against, but Rice is turning the page in his young career. I’m not expecting huge numbers, but don’t you dare bench him unless you have clear-cut better options on your fantasy squad.

Sit: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants – The toe injury won’t keep him sidelined but it give HC Tom Coughlin ample reason to run Jacobs more. Bradshaw could still get involved as a receiver this week with New York running screens against the blitz but counting on Bradshaw is still a risky play.

S and P: Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai becomes a quality play this week with Donald Brown dealing with an injury. Another 20 touches could be in store against the 49ers.

WR

Start: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – I’m warming up to the Marshall plan-especially this week. The Ravens have struggled mightily against the pass and Marshall may be the best run after the catch receiver in the game right now.

Sit: Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys – Miles Austin has taken over the role as Dallas’ top receiver. Should defenses start keying in on stopping Austin I expect Jason Witten to be the beneficiary, not Williams.

S and P: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams – The conditions are right for a quality outing but with the Rams anemic offense nothing is certain. Double down on Avery and hope that Bulger can deliver a face card.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Neil Rackers, Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals offense should be able to move the ball well against the Panthers. Despite their quality of receivers and pass happy offense, they have only netter 9 passing touchdowns on the season. I’m liking the Arizona kicker to cash in on a few stalled drives against the Panthers.

Sit: Miami Defense – As I noted earlier, I think Mark Sanchez will have some success this week. The Dolphins should try to establish the run and eat the clock in this road game limiting the opportunity for the defense to record sacks and turnovers.

S and P: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – He has certainly cooled after his hot start but the Eagles will need to swap out some of the run game with the short pass to offset a likely decrease in carries from Brian Westbrook. I also don’t think Andy Reid will be as willing to let Brian Westbrook take goal line carries coming off the concussion making Celek the Eagles top option inside the ten-yard line.

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Week 7 Recap:

QB

Start: Matt Ryan – 198 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 Int

Sit: Chad Henne – 200 pass yds, 0 TD, 2 Int

S and P: Ben Roethlisberger – 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 Int

Ryan and the Falcons didn’t have an easy go of it in Dallas only posting respectable totals. New Orleans held Henne in check all day by allowing the former Wolverine to complete only 50 percent of his passes. Roethlisberger went up against a quality pass defense so his numbers shouldn’t come as a shock.

RB

Start: Tashard Choice – 0 rush, 1 rec 23 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Jamal Lewis – 47 rush yds, 0 TD

S and P: Thomas Jones – 121 rush yds, 1 TD, 1 rec, 3 rec yds, 0 TD

Choice’s fantasy value took a hit when it was announced Felix Jones would be active. Nobody should have started him at that point so I’ll take a mulligan and move on. Lewis is an aging back on a bad team that plays from behind the majority of the game. Leon Washington’s injury allowed Jones to record a season-high 26 carries in route to a stellar fantasy day.

WR

Start: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings – (Driver) 2 rec, 84 rec yds, 1 TD, (Jennings) 5 rec, 52 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Michael Crabtree – 5 rec, 56 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Steve Smith (Car) – 6 rec, 99 yds, 0 TD

Driver got the touchdown and Jennings got the targets, but in the end Green Bay ran the ball. Crabtree performed fairly well in his first pro action but didn’t merit a start on your fantasy team. Smith saw double digit targets for the first time since week 2 in route to an unspectacular but useful fantasy day.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Matt Stover – 0 FG, 6 XP

Sit: Zach Miller – 2 rec, 15 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Cincinnati Defense – 10 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 3 Int, 1 FumRec

Stover was not needed for any three pointers but a cool 6 points helped anyone who plugged him. Miller saw his targets drop from 11 to 3 against the blitzing Jets. Cincinnati destroyed the turnover friendly Chicago offense.

NFL GAMES WEEK 8 (All times EST)

Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens - 1 p.m.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears - 1 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys - 1 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers - 1 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts - 1 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets - 1 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - 4:05 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers - 4:05 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals - 4:15 p.m.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles - 4:15 p.m.

Monday: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - 8:30 p.m


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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 7

Posted On Monday, October 26, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballWill the Eagles join the other defensive units who shined in week 7? Can Alex Smith turn Vernon Davis into a top-five fantasy TE for the rest of the season? Read More

I’m not sure the Patriots and Bucs did much to increase the appeal of American football in England. The script played out as expected with the Patriots handedly defeated the Bucs. Perhaps next time if Wembley Stadium is booked the NFL would consider moving their act to the “Wooden O?” Nonetheless, there was nothing strange to note here. We are another step closer to seeing Josh Freeman starting and Tom Brady took a few more shots down the field yesterday but failed to connect more often than not.

The 49ers’ Vernon Davis notched three scores yesterday. This game wasn’t merely a spectacular outing for his owners, but it also gave Davis touchdowns and double-digit targets in three of the past four games. In other words, Davis is getting more opportunity and he is cashing in, two very positive signs for fantasy owners. He is a must-start on the road and I’m moving him ahead of Greg Olsen and alongside Brent Celek for the rest of the season. Juicy match ups in week 16 (vs. DET) and 17 (at STL) don’t hurt either.

This week I couldn’t help but notice how many fantasy defenses posted big games. Of course not every league counts defenses and special teams the same, but we got it all yesterday. Blocked punts, kickoffs and interceptions were returned for scores. Plenty of sacks and fumbles, heck Carolina’s safety accounted for over 20% of their team’s final score!

It’s safe to say Chicago can’t stop the pass and needs to start calling more running plays. It is also time to start giving Carson Palmer a little more value. Palmer has the nice 2:1 TD:INT ratio you want in a QB1 and gets Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland and Detroit in four of the next five games.

Leon Washington’s injury elevates the value of Thomas Jones for the rest of the season. Already the popular choice near the goal, Jones is in line to get close to 20 touches per game. Shonn Greene is flex add with some upside but I wouldn’t go overboard with your free agent budget to get him.

Speaking of running backs, several backfields are seeing their fantasy production dwindle. In Dallas, Felix Jones’ return almost makes every Cowboy running back a flex-only play. Tampa Bay went back to more of a 50/50 split just when it looked like Cadillac Williams was going to see 15 carries a game. Beanie Wells regained some of his lost thunder while encroaching on Tim Hightower’s recent success. Additionally, Mike Bell’s “hot hand” kept Pierre Thomas’ carries down. What does this mean for fantasy owners? As the number of legit RB2’s decreases it makes guys like Ryan Grant, Kevin Smith, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams more valuable than ever.

If you haven’t bought into the decline of Ladanian Tomlinson take a look at his numbers yesterday. If you can’t produce 75 yards on 25 touches in the NFL you are not a great tailback. Well, Tomlinson failed to reach that benchmark against the Chiefs. The Chargers are now Phillip Rivers team so adjust accordingly.

Bears Corner

I’m far too disgusted with the performance of the Bear’s to waste time writing about them so I will just rant on the NFL.

Every passing week makes it clearer and clearer. The NFL has more than a few BAD teams. Six teams failed to score 10 points. When you consider Detroit and Tennessee were on a bye it makes it even more astonishing to me. Can you imagine what would happen to real businesses that made such poor personnel choices? I am not old enough to have lived through the NFL’s earlier days, but to think that the Washington Redskins and Oakland Raiders are considered to be “bad jobs” is a travesty. When guys like Jon Gruden and Mike Shannahan get fired while Dick Jauron and Eric Mangini are offered contracts one has to wonder what the heck NFL owners are sipping on these days? If it’s not aged at least 15 years it’s gotta be some mighty fine Kool-Aid.



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Felix Jones And The Temple Of Doom

Posted On Saturday, October 24, 2009 by JakeTrain |

The Dallas backfield situation is muddied and fantasy owners are forced to make a touch decision this weekend. Read More

It's now being reported that Felix Jones will be back at full speed for tomorrow's tilt against Atlanta. That should equate to less carries for the Dallas trio of running backs.

Marion Barber is still feeling the effects of a quad injury and should be given a few more plays off now that Jones and Choice are healthy behind them. I'm still considering Barber a low end RB2 for this week, but his value for the rest of the season takes a little bit of a hit. Two capable backs stealing carries and an injury to a leg is not ideal for your top runner.

Felix Jones and Tashard Choice owners will need to wait and see how this situation plays out before deploying either player in their starting lineup. I had previously said Choice was a quality start this week, however Jones being back changes his outlook. Both running backs should be owned, but neither can be considered anything better than a RB3 with upside since there is obvious injury risk attached to Dallas' running backs.

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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 7

Posted On Thursday, October 22, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football start sit week 7Week 7 will starve fantasy owners from porous pass defenses. Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville will not be giving up yards to fantasy QBs this week. However fantasy’s best passers should carry plenty of fantasy teams to victory with several juicy match ups to exploit. Read More

Cedric Benson should be running with some extra motivation facing the Bears this week making him a nice option at RB. The Dolphins will be out to control the clock against the high-octane Saints offense. Can New Orleans contain the Wildcat? Meanwhile, Oakland tries to put together a winning streak against another east coast team traveling west. We’ll be half way through the fantasy regular season after this week so lineup choices are critical!

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – His stat line Sunday night wasn’t very impressive and he is playing a team coming off a bye week. However, Dallas should struggle with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez in this game and I’m banking on a nice outing from the BC alum.

Sit: Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins – I’d love to insert Mr. Favre in this spot but I’m not going there again. I’m expecting Miami to focus on the run in this game, limited Henne’s chances for fantasy success.

S and P: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – I have been slow to accept the Steelers’ passing game, but Big Ben has strung together some nice games. He’ll have his hands full this week against the Vikings, but you can’t sit him when he is playing this well.

RB

Start: Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys – His production on the field seems to have cemented an increased role in the offense. If the team is prepared to give him more carries, fantasy owners should begin to put him in their lineups-specially in PPR formats.

Sit: Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns – Forget Lewis as a flex week play in week 7. The team has not had a normal week of preparation due to a flu outbreak and the Packers have held their past two opponents to 78 and 82 yards rushing.

S and P: Thomas Jones, New York Jets – The Jets should give the running game more carries as they try to take the pressure off their rookie quarterback. Jones tends to play better with more touches and fantasy owners will have to roll the dice on him against the Raiders this week.

WR

Start: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers should record his third straight 300-yard passing day against the Browns this weekend. Consequently, I’m optimist fantasy owners will see production out of both starting wideouts this week.

Sit: Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – A great talent, fantasy owners should take a “wait and see” approach to Crabtree. The 49ers will want to run the ball with Gore back in the mix and we don’t know how effective he will be in this offense with limited preparation.

S and P: Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers – Many of his owners will want to bench their high draft pick-deservedly so-but I think you need to give him one more week before writing him off.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Matt Stover, Indianapolis Colts – He’s back and he’s a great play this week playing indoors with a high-scoring offense.

Sit: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – If Oakland doesn’t use him to block Miller will still have to rely on Russell getting him the ball quickly. I wouldn’t count on Russell showing poise under pressure and making quick reads.

S and P: Cincinnati Defense – Chicago has shown it can move the ball, but it has also shown it can turn the ball over. If you don’t have a clear-cut choice, roll with the Bengals at home and hope the Bears’ turnovers continue.

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Week 6 Recap:

QB

Start: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – 112 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 Int

Sit: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – 278 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 Int

S and P: Eli Manning, New York Giants – 178 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 Int

Hasselbeck burned me. What else is there to say except the team is very inconsistent. I guess I am too damn biased and wishing Favre would stop being so useful. He is proving to be one of fantasy’s better bargains at the QB position. The Saints had the Giants playing from behind early and gave Manning very little room to mount a comeback.

RB

Start: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – 13 rush yds, 0 TD

Sit: Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – 70 rush yds, 0 TD, 3 rec, 30 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Leon Washington, New York Jets – 99 rush yds, 0 TD, 3 rec, 46 rec yds, 0 TD

In an enigma of a game, McCoy and the rest of the offense struggled to move the ball. Tomlinson never really got it going and was not given a third try from inside the five after failing on the two previous carries. Overtime almost provided Washington with his first 100-yard rushing game in a very long time. Still, he racked up nice yardage totals.

WR

Start: Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions – 2 rec, 27 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – 6 rec, 109 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – 1rec, 42 rec yds, 0 TD

The Lions didn’t much of anything last week so nobody capitalized in Calvin Johnson’s absence I have never doubted the talent from Bowe, but maybe Haley’s motivational tactics are working. All I know is that if he keeps getting 14 targets a game he will have more games like this one. The Redskins are a mess and the team made a quarterback change in route to Moss’ poor outing.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears – 0 FGM, 2 XP

Sit: Seattle Defense – 27 Points Allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 FumRec

S and P: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens – 3 rec, 51 rec yds, 0 TD

Not a horrible outing from the Seahawks, but certainly nothing special. Heap prayers when unanswered as he failed to score. Turnovers inside the red zone cost the Bears a victory and a solid outing for Gould’s fantasy owners.

NFL GAMES WEEK 7 (All times EST)

Bye: Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens


Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals - 1 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns - 1 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans - 1 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs - 1 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams - 1 p.m.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers - 4:05 p.m.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders - 4:05 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys - 4:15 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins - 4:15 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins - 8:30 p.m


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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 6

Posted On Tuesday, October 20, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballWeek 6 sure had me fooled. The Texans showed why people liked them in the preseason. Baltimore’s defense is a good match up for your fantasy players. The Raiders shut down the second-ranked offense. To top it all off, as soon as I show Seattle some love, they go right back to being bad. Read More

Matt Forte’s stats are down and his owner in one of my league’s just shipped him off and stated he would have taken a box of crackerjacks in return for the struggling running back. This led to me to thinking about something I tend to do every year: digging in on players.

I toe the dirt on guys, unwilling to give up on them. We’ve all been there and I am there on Matt Forte. I’m not going to say he is a HUGE buy low but his price is likely so low that a modest improvement would result in a net gain for your fantasy squad. Ship him away if you like but I’m filing Forte under the “Weather” column-a growing list of players I am expecting to benefit from anticipated poorer weather conditions.

While we are on the weather, how about Tom Brady? Nobody is shocked if you’ve been following along with the Titans this season, but as a Brady owner in a competitive league I was more than happy to see him rack up the points. On the other side of the field, the Titans team of 2009 doesn’t share any characteristics of the 2008 group. I recommended adding LenDale White early this season and he is still on my “weather list” but he should be a free agent in leagues with 10 teams or less. Actually, he is droppable in 12 team leagues right now! I’d try to give him another week or two but I could be wrong on White this year.

Brandon Marshall’s fantasy production last night is exactly the reason why I consider him a WR2 for the 2009 season. The guy is good and he does great things when he catches the ball-see week 5. However, he does not get WR1 targets and therefore his receptions are going to be fairly “typical” wide receiver. When he doesn’t turn those 4-6 receptions into touchdowns you are left with 50-75 yards and an average fantasy score. The supposed discounted price you paid preseason is looking more like an appropriate price to me.

Are you kidding me Philadelphia? The Oakland Raiders? They not only scored but they prevented someone else from scoring? I didn’t watch the game but read a line in yesterday’s USA Today stating that the Eagles were “the first team in three years to fail to score a touchdown against the Raiders.” Can’t say I saw that one coming.

Over the weekend I was asked which Green Bay WR would I want to own for the rest of the season. Driver has been pretty consistent but Jennings is getting better every week. Given the choice I’d rather have Jennings. We know Jennings can be a WR1 and improvements in each of the last two weeks are enough to keep me optimistic.

Two more things of interest devloping in the NFL this year are the string of games on Atlanta's schedule against teams coming off a bye week and the number of winless teams Washington has faced. The latter has shown Washington to be a bad team. Will the former prove the Falcons are a solid team? You betchya. It's hard enough winning in the NFL, but when the cards are stacked against you the margin for error isn't just small, it doesn't exist.

Bears Corner

I gave the Bears a 50% chance of winning coming into the game. After the first half it was clear they could win this game and yet turnover after turnover after turnover my hopes dwindled. The team needs to upgrade it’s run blocking by any means necessary or Chicago fans will have as many inches of snow on the ground as their football tam has losses. Another road game they should have won. Is it me or does it smell like 8-8 in here?


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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 6

Posted On Thursday, October 15, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football start sit week 6
Guys like Frank Gore and Willie Parker are getting back on the field. Other guys like Matt Forte, Ladanian Tomlinson and Pierre Thomas have fantasy owners optimistic in their return. Nobody has to play Peyton Manning or watch Ronnie Brown run the Wildcat. It’s week 6 in the NFL and it’s not too early to start thinking about your lineup on Sunday! Read More

I think Week 6 figures to give fantasy owners some growing pains as several pleasant surprises of the 2009 season could disappoint. Yet, some of the season’s early disappointments should shine with quality match ups.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – (Gulp) I am still not a fan of him this season, but I can’t bench him this week. He was great last week and gets an Arizona defense at home that has been far better at stopping the run than the pass.

Sit: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – Right now, I would not want to be facing the Ravens. A team that prides itself on defense will heads to Minnesota with a chip on their shoulder. Favre is playing well but I think he makes a few bad throws in this game.

S and P: Eli Manning, New York Giants – I hate to place Manning in this post three straight weeks but he remains one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners. Manning seemed ok last week playing with the injured foot. Just keep in mind the Saints have allowed only two passing touchdowns this year.

RB

Start: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – I’m expecting the Philadelphia defense to create turnovers and provide ample scoring chances. Throw in some garbage yards as the team runs out the clock late and McCoy becomes a nice flex option despite having to travel west.

Sit: Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - I'm not sitting LT over every guy but I have yet to see the same old LT and am not comfortable plugging him in despite an extra week of rest. He's really a boom or bust pick on Monday Night so unless you are playing one of the better teams in your league and need to take the risk I'd play it safe.

S and P: Leon Washington, New York Jets – Washington has seen his touches decrease in recent weeks, but the Bills just let an old Jamal Lewis rush for over 100 yards against them. I’m betting on Leon to finally break out and bust a few long plays on Buffalo at the Meadowlands.

WR

Start: Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions – Anyone can tell you to start Randy Moss against the Titans, so I’m ramping it up a notch. The Packers are allowing the 7th most fantasy points WRs and Calvin Johnson is dealing with a minor injury. Johnson is also averaging 8 targets over his last three games. Stafford or Culpepper under center isn’t going to matter when the Lions are down and need to throw the ball.

Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – Washington is allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to receivers. He has yet to catch more than 5 passes in a game and should have a tougher time finding the end zone.

S and P: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – Most would think Moss is an absolute start this week. The Chiefs have been torched through the air and are on the road, but he has eclipsed 75 yards and 5 receptions in a game only once this season. Added drama about a potential coaching change mid-season and Moss isn’t a lock to produce.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears – I think this game is close, with both teams moving the ball. As a result, I like Gould indoors in a conservative game.

Sit: Seattle Defense – They won’t be shutting out the Cardinals this week. Warner won’t be affected by the noise and has been sacked only 8 times this season (4 coming in one game vs. Colts).

S and P: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens – The Vikes do a pretty good job against the run and on the outside against the WRs. I’d go with Heap in a bind and hope he can continue to make Minnesota’s defense the most fantasy friendly towards tight ends.

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Week 5 Recap:

QB

Start: Kurt Warner – 302 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Sit: Eli Manning – 173 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

S and P: Tom Brady – 215 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

I was expecting a little more from Warner but will gladly take a 300+ and two score day from my QB1. Elijah made the most out of his 10 passes, salvaging his fantasy day for those who made the risky play. Brady missed a few touchdowns but threw for more than 1 TD for the first time since week 1.

RB

Start: Marshawn Lynch – 69 rush yards, 0 TD, 6 rec, 56 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Steven Jackson – 84 rush yards, 0 TD, 2 rec, 25 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Michael Turner – 97 rush yards, 3 TD

The Bills offense had trouble moving the chains and prevented Lynch from having a nice fantasy day. Jackson was held out of the end zone and fell short of RB1 stats. Michael Turner turned in his best performance of the season and will now try to shed the “only plays well against weak teams” rap.

WR

Start: DeSean Jackson – 1 rec, 1 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Braylon Edwards – 5 rec, 64 rec yards, 1 TD

S and P: Steve Smith – 3 rec, 70 rec yards, 0 TD

All of the signs pointed to a nice day from the Eagles passing attack, however it was Jeremy Maclin cashing in rather than Jackson. I was impressed with Edwards, but fantasy owners need to keep in mind Jerricho Cotchery was limited as well. Steve Smith connected on a long pass play to post modest production.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Buffalo Defense – 6 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 1 Int,

Sit: John Carlson – 2 rec, 31 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: John Kasay – 1 FGM, 1 XP

The Bills defense was nothing spectacular last week. However, the depleted unit still kept the score down for leagues in which the score matters. Carlson didn’t get in the action as Matt Hasselbeck was tossing the pigskin to his wideouts most of the day. Kasay didn’t double his season totals, but 4 points was better than nothing.


NFL GAMES WEEK 6 (All times EST)

Bye: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals - 1 p.m.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - 1 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars - 1 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings - 1 p.m.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs - 1 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins - 1 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders - 4:05 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks - 4:05 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots - 4:15 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets - 4:15 p.m.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers - 8:30 p.m.


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Willie Parker's Return And Goose Eggs

Posted On Wednesday, October 14, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballRashard Mendenhall has seemingly passed the first fantasy hurdle. Posting two solid performances with an increased workload has earned him more carries in Pittsburgh’s backfield. How many more is still unknown. Willie Parker has watched Mendenhall the past two weeks and knows he needs to get back on the field soon or he will lose his job. In fact, I’d be surprised if Parker does not play this week regardless how his toe feels. Read More

The Steelers face the Cleveland Browns this weekend. Parker, and the casual fantasy owner, realizes Mendenhall is in line for a nice day. The key for Fast Willie is just getting back on the field and letting the coaching staff know he deserves some carries too. Mendenhall owners should think about selling high if the price is right. More likely, you will just have to let the situation play out.

Unfortunately, I think Mendenhall’s time as a premium fantasy option will be suspended following this week. Do not cast him aside. He should get enough carries to remain a useful RB2 in deeper leagues and flex option in shallower formats.

Parker is no sure bet to remain healthy making Mendenhall’s upside appealing to his faithful followers. Parker could come back too quickly from an injury that does have a tendency to linger. Worse, Parker could come back and not be as productive as Mendenhall. At this point, consider Mendenhall a top option against the Browns for week 6 and downgrade him to RB2 status moving forward. If you can afford to stash him on your roster he is an investment that could pay dividends by the time your league’s playoffs begin.

After having a few “trade situations” arise in more than one of my leagues, I felt inspired to discuss the topic further. There is no right or wrong way to trade but there are different approaches. My approach is outlined over on FFToday if you want to take a gander.

The last thing I want to touch on today is how to cope with a goose egg. A handful of players found in starting lineups simply provided little or nothing to their respective owners. Calvin Johnson and Jerricho Cotchery’s day were affected by injury. However, Derrick Mason, Chris Cooley, Randy Moss, DeSean Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Dustin Keller and Laveranues Coles dug craters in many lineups. I wasn’t burned as badly as others but you can’t take it too hard. All you can do when managing your team is put your best guys out there and hope for the best. Did you really have a better option? Outside of Coles and Keller everyone else I mentioned should have been in your lineup. It’s unfortunate and unlucky, but it happens.


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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 5

Posted On Tuesday, October 13, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballChad Henne played pretty well in his second career start. A MNF performance like Henne’s could be a precursor for more things to come. I commented on Henne in the pre-season as having Derek Anderson circa 2007 potential. One game isn’t enough to prove me right but plenty fantasy owners will be headed out to the waiver wire this week to add a Chad Henne lotto ticket to their roster. Read More

In a quick follow up to my Sunday post, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy each had six carries. However, several of McCoy’s carries came in the 4th quarter as the Eagles were running out the clock. The Eagles cashed in on some long pass plays that kept their overall time of possession to only 25 minutes. As a result, Westbrook didn’t touch the ball 20 times. Moving forward I would consider Westbrook a nice RB2 who should be a good play more often than not. On a normal day I feel confident he will get his touches. McCoy is a great guy to own with huge upside should Westbrook need to rest.

If there was any doubt about how bad a football club the Oakland Raiders are right now it is gone. Is Ahmad Bradshaw the better fantasy RB on the Giants’ roster? Jacobs is slow and is not running down hill. Bradshaw’s value is rising but Jacobs will still get his carries in this offense.

Speaking of backfield values, Tashard Choice’s situation in Dallas is interesting. Is Choice just having a Mike Bell fantasy contribution or will he stick around? I’m leaning towards a fate similar to Bell’s. Unless Dallas commits to being a running team, Felix Jones’ return to the lineup will return Choice to “handcuff” status.

I have to “insert foot” on the Seahawks this week. I have been hating on Seattle since the pre-season but the performance this weekend was stellar. How much of the offensive success had to do with Jacksonville traveling from the east coast? How much had to do with Sims-Walker being deactivated for the game and limiting the Jags offense? How much of it was Matt Hasselbeck? Let’s see what they do against the Cardinals this week.

Welcome back Michael Turner! Is Turner’s season going to be boom or bust every week? The Falcons came off a bye week and destroyed the 49ers. Can they prevent the Bears from doing the same thing to them?

Andre Johnson is good. Larry Fitzgerald is probably the most common answer to the “Best wide receiver in the NFL right now” question but Johnson is on the same level.

Tom Brady showed improvement. A week ago, he misread the defense and didn’t capitalize on some guys being wide open. This week he made better reads and decisions throwing the ball, however his accuracy was sub-par. It is taking longer than his fantasy owners would like but he is making strides. I fully expect Brady to have a huge second half.

Bears Corner

A week off comes at a pretty good time. The team has a tough opponent in the Falcons this weekend. Extra rest and preparation should help get this team ready to play. Former Northern Illinois standout Michael Turner will be having somewhat of a homecoming as well. I just hope he takes it easy on us!

What happened to Cedric Benson? Maturity might have something to do with it. New scenery was needed and I like Forte but it still hurts seeing Benson’s resurgence this season.


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Reid Extension Would Be Good News For McCoy

Posted On Sunday, October 11, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballIt is looking like Andy Reid will be getting a contract extension soon. Outside of the fact he is one of the game’s best coaches, Reid is the most PPR-friendly fantasy football coach in the NFL. Reid creates dynamic fantasy football players and never gets behind the curve. McNabb and Westbrook alone have helped a slew of fantasy football hopefuls achieve fantasy titles. For his efforts, Reid has a shot to record the 100th win of his head coaching career today. I’ll be pulling for him. Read More

I’ll also be watching LeSean McCoy. McCoy figures to fill Brian Westbrook’s shoes in the not so distant future. If Reid is extended, McCoy stands a good chance at becoming a beast in PPR formats. The Eagles tinkered with a few packages over the bye week by having Westbrook and McCoy in the backfield at the same time. Although the extra playing time certainly can help McCoy’s value this season, I’m interested in what it might mean to his fantasy future.

I expected Westbrook to be carrying the load in 2010 coming into the season but the signs are starting to appear that he may not be that guy. Reid’s willingness to plug in McCoy in special packages tells fantasy owners several promising things.

McCoy fantasy football1. Andy Reid sees the potential. Westbrook’s potential to get hurt and become a non-factor as well as McCoy’s potential to be effective in Reid’s offense. I’m a firm believer in buying guys who get more opportunities than the rest. More touches and targets do not directly translate into fantasy production but they sure have a positive influence on production.

2. Andy Reid trusts McCoy. Most NFL fans have heard commentators talking about a rookie running back’s ability to block in pass protection are the largest obstacle they have to seeing the field in their first year. McCoy is ahead of the curve folks. The former Pitt Panther was playing with the first team while Westbrook recovered from his injuries during the preseason and in week 3. The fact Reid is adding packages with McCoy in mind further illustrates the coach’s faith in him in pass protection.

Westbrook fantasy football3. How healthy is Westbrook? There is no doubt Andy Reid choosing to give McCoy carries part of the effort to keep Westbrook healthier as the season progresses. This is why I am most interested in the Philly game today. Westbrook missed the preseason and went 26 carries (before taking a break in week 3. Add another week of rest due to the Eagles’ bye a week ago and you have a running back that is well-rested. Rest is one thing, health is another. Is Westbrook going to have more than 15 touches today? Fantasy owners need Westbrook to be a deciding factor in their lineups going forward this fantasy football season and seeing him get 20+ touches against the Bucs would be a boost to their confidence.

4. Schedule. Philadelphia’s travel in the upcoming weeks is rough. The Eagles go from Oakland in week 6 to Washington in week 7.and then get two tough division games at home before playing four of their next five games on the road. Their fantasy playoff schedule from week 14 on is: @NYG, vs. SF, vs. DEN, and @DAL. A healthy Westbrook can perform against any team but an unhealthy Westbrook might not be as useful to fantasy owners. Even if McCoy takes on more carries, he is playing the same tough schedule. However, if he is to be the featured back in Philly’s offense he needs to show he can play against through a tough schedule. This week should let fantasy owners know if McCoy will be a flex option in the next few weeks while those next few weeks will determining McCoy’s 2010 value.


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Start, Sit, or Squat and Pray - Week 5

Posted On Thursday, October 08, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football start sit week 5I rebounded with a nice collection of picks in week 4. Scanning this week’s games, there appears to be a lot of one-sided affairs on tap. Even so, that doesn’t make those lineup decisions any easier. Time to roll up the sleeves and see who should be starting for your fantasy team in week 5. Read More

The weather is cooling and three of fantasy football’s best quarterbacks are on a bye week. I’m anticipating a low scoring week from around the league. If that’s the case, you can expect some close games in your fantasy league(s) and that makes this week’s line up decisions crucial.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – The Texans are getting burned by the run thus far (see Johnson, Chris) but make no mistake, Arizona will be throwing the football. Warner and his receivers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and are playing at home.

Sit: Eli Manning, New York Giants – Let’s take a look at what we know. He has an injury to the heel of his plant foot and has never played with this injury before. As a fantasy owner, you just can’t risk plugging him in and having him leave the game after the first quarter.

Squat and Pray: Tom Brady, New England Patriots – The Broncos pass defense is pretty good but Romo made them look better. Brady has two games under his belt against defenses able to pressure the quarterback. The Pats still have a lot of weapons on offense and fantasy owners have to have faith in there early pick this week.

RB

Start: Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – The Browns are giving up over 400 yards a game on defense. They rank dead last in the AFC against the run. The wait is over for Lynch owners this week.

Sit: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – I’m doubling up on sitting running backs against the Vikings. Jackson will be tough to sit, but the Rams are bad and if there is a team that knows what it’s like to have an opponent load up against the run it’s Minnesota.

Squat and Pray: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – He has a history of only performing against weak teams and the 49ers defense doesn’t fall under that category after a month of NFL games. Yielding a scant 73.8 yards rushing per contest, San Francisco will be ready for Turner and the Falcons at home.

WR

Start: DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson and the Eagles should perform well against a defense that has allowed nine touchdowns through the air and several long passing plays.

Sit: Braylon Edwards, New York Jets – I was busy this week and haven’t had time to chime in on the trade but the Jets are not going to turn into a passing team overnight. He still has stone hands and a half-week to learn the offense.

Squat and Pray: Steve Smith, New York Giants – How can you bench this guy, especially in PPR leagues? You really can’t. I’m worried that Eli won’t be as effective throwing the ball. But I’m even more worried about the Giants having this game in hand early resulting in a heavy dose of the running game.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Buffalo Defense – They are playing at home where the forecast is calling for 10+ MPH winds and a temperature high of 52-degrees. Add in a lowly Browns team and fantasy owners with the Bears, Packers or Chargers defenses have their bye week replacement.

Sit: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks – I realize he is playing at home, Matt Hasselbeck is likely to play and the Jags rank dead last in the NFL passing yards allowed per game. However, a lot of that is due to them facing Peyton Manning. Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Houshmandzadeh are going to get their share of balls. Fewer targets and less than ideal touchdown potential have me benching him this week.

Squat and Pray: John Kasay, Carolina Panthers – Kasay is probably on your league’s waiver wire and I like the match up. He only has three FGA on the season but could double that this weekend.

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Week 4 Recap:

QB

Start: David Garrard – 323 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 38 rush yards

Sit: Eli Manning – 292 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

S and P: Shaun Hill – 152 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Garrard was great last week as the Jags took advantage of the leaky Titans pass defense. Eli’s numbers were not among the weekly leaders until Hakeem Nicks turned what should have been a moderate gain into a 54-yard touchdown. Those who started Hill were fortunate two get a couple of scores to bail out his fantasy day.

RB

Start: Ronnie Brown – 115 rush yards, 2 TD

Sit: Ryan Grant – 51 rush yards, 4 rec, 50 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Darren McFadden - -3 rush yards, 1 rec, 5 rec yards, 0 TD

I’ll admit the Brown call was a bit “easy” but I needed to get one right in the worst way. Grant did ok in PPR leagues but otherwise was a disappointment. McFadden injured his meniscus in his last chance to win fantasy owners over this season.

WR

Start: Calvin Johnson – 8 rec, 133 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Santonio Holmes – 4 rec, 52 yards, 0 TD

S and P: Randy Moss – 3 rec, 50 yards, 1 TD

Johnson saw twelve targets but came up just short of the goal line on a couple of receptions and Kevin Smith took advantage. Santonio Holmes watched Rashard Mendenhall like the rest of us. Moss was held to a season-low five targets this past Sunday but did tally his first TD on the season.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Dustin Keller – 3 rec, 31 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Denver Broncos Defense – 10 points allowed, 5 sacks, 1 int, 1 FF

S and P: Dan Carpenter – 1 FG, 5 XP

The Jets’ Mark Sanchez played too poorly for Keller to post solid numbers. Just when I thought Dallas was going to take the ball out of Romo’s hands they let him toss 42 passes. Carpenter walked away with solid eight points if you plugged him as a bye week filler.

NFL GAMES WEEK 5 (All times EST)

Bye: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills - 1 p.m.
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers - 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions - 1 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs- 1 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants - 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams - 1 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers - 4:05 p.m.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals - 4:15 p.m.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - 4:15 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks - 4:15 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins - 8:30 p.m.

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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 4

Posted On Monday, October 05, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy footballPeyton Manning has been putting up numbers so much that we do not often realize his ridiculous assault on the record books. This guy still has several seasons to go barring injury. In a game that is all about the stats, it’s amazing how many fantasy owners were reluctant to place him in the top 2-including myself. At the end of the day, Manning’s consistency should be worth more to fantasy owners than banking on a stellar season from Brees or Brady. Read More

The Patriots game was exciting and dull to me. Brady stood in the shotgun and either threw a short pass or handed it off on a draw more often than not. Very dull watching this offense. On the other side, Baltimore was doing a little bit of everything but not enough. Ray Rice is a dynamic player in the offense but they do not use him enough. One week they will and he’ll go off to the tune of 200 total yards.

If you are buying Sims-Walker then shouldn’t you be buying Garrard as well? I spoke with a few people and they do not get excited about Garrard yet gush over Sims-Walker. Mr. Garrard has Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee and Kansas City on deck. Excited now?

Going back to what I said last week, there are 12 teams with one or zero wins right now! TWELVE! Out of those teams, six have new coaches. Mike Shannahan, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher are seeing dollar signs by the week.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Romo is not a very good fantasy QB.

Don’t look too much at Darren Sproles’ zero carries and single reception Sunday night. San Diego was playing Pittsburgh and playing from behind at the outset. Tomlinson and Sproles get a bye week and then play the Broncos at home on Monday night in week 6.

Thomas Jones owners should be worried. Whether it is the Jets offensive line or Thomas’ age catching up to him, he isn’t producing and rookie Shonn Greene is getting into the mix. I’m not sure what the value of Leon Washington is right now but I am pretty sure the Jets are going to have to get the ball in his hands more.

I watched Eli Manning throw to Steve Smith this weekend and had two distinct thoughts on him. Sell high in low-performance, touchdown formats and buy in PPR leagues. Brandon Jacobs does not look good. When he just takes the ball and runs downhill he finds the back of his offensive lineman too often. When he tries to find a hole he slows down. Unless he can make some adjustments I’m considering him a RB2.

Bears Corner

Fantasy junkies can thank Lions HC Jim Schwartz for giving them another position to choose next season. I’m pretty sure you’ll be able to find the Detroit training staff on the waiver wire next year!

All kidding aside, I was scared about this game and am thankful to get the ‘W.’ Chicago was fortunate that the Lions struggle to put together four quarters of football on a weekly basis. Forte’s performance was not a surprise and should calm some fantasy panic. Hester left the game making Bennett and Knox worthy of looks in 10-12 team leagues. Cutler’s Elway-esque run into the end zone was a great football play to watch.

Put your feet up Chicago, the Bears can watch their two main rivals slug it out tonight and have a week of rest. A Packers win tonight would knot the division up at 3-1. So this Bears fan will be routing for the Packers in a very rare set of circumstances. Then again, being only one game behind Minnesota (with both head to head games to play) and a game up on the Packers isn’t so bad.


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A Lot At Stake For Moore, Mendenhall

Posted On Saturday, October 03, 2009 by JakeTrain |

Fantasy football newsI had some time this morning so I thought I'd sneak in a quick look at some headlines heading into Sunday's games. Fantasy stakes are high in Pittsburgh's backfield as Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall are in line for more carries. Read More

Steelers RB Willie Parker is not expected to play against the Chargers Sunday night. Mewelde Moore is worth a flex spot this week. However, Rashard Mendenhall is a risky play. It's a big week for Mendenhall and his supporters like myself. He needs to show more than "something" in this game. He needs to prove he can be the guy in this offense. Here's hoping he knows the plays and holds onto the ball!

Roger Rotter of Fox Sports offers his opinion on some week 4 sleepers.

The best news I can find out of New England. If Welker's knee keeps him out a third week then we are left to draw conclusions about his injury. My assumption is that it;s a bruised knee and every time he works it out it swells up on him. But that's purely speculation on my part.

Roddy White thinks the big plays down the field will start picking up after the bye week. I still think White will struggle to crack the top 10 at his position. Atlanta will get the run going and Tony Gonzalez will continue to eat into White's looks. Going forward it is starting to look like White may become reliant on connecting deep to post top-end fantasy totals. That makes him more inconsistent and unreliable in my eyes and a WR2.

Those of you expecting to play Julius Jones or Nate Burleson this week might want to know that Walter Jones has been ruled out. Even without Dwight Freeney, I love the Colts pass rush against this line and advise fantasy owners to give Indy's defense the start against Seattle.

Those who play in leagues with return yardage can continue to see added production from Bears wideout Johnny Knox.

Jamarcus Russell has hamstrung the Raiders offense. In a year where McFadden should be getting similar treatment to Steven Jackson as Oakland's Mr. Everything head coach Tom Cable continues to stand behind his quarterback. I had high hopes for McFadden coming into the season but unless Russell can complete a pass he is doomed to be a match up play AT BEST. Ughh.

The Packers are having issues along the offensive line. chad Clifton was going to try and play but he had a set back is a game-time decision to protect Aaron Rodgers. I'm not feeling warm and fuzzy about the Packers offense putting up too many points in Minnesota.

I've been critical of Romo and the Cowboys needing to revise their quarterback's role in the offense. Yesterday's headline from dallasnews.com supports my claim: Dallas Cowboys' Romo Could Learn From Bronco's QB Orton.

In a non-fantasy football story, the NFLPA has created a "concussion committee." This is a serious issue that has finally grown feet. I am perplexed by how long it took a professional sports league playing a collision sport like football to make efforts on this topic. Although the NFL commissioned a report to prove concussed players were at higher risk of future health problems, logic could have figured that out. Just goes to show you that TV and revenue are and will always be the NFL's top priority.


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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 4

Posted On Friday, October 02, 2009 by JakeTrain |

fantasy football start sit week 4My week three choices bombed. Absolutely bombed. I’m okay with having an off week, but I’m starting to wonder if I’ll ever get a RB start to go my way. As I dust myself off, we turn the calendars to October where fantasy owners are faced with their first bye week. It’s Week four and lineup choices are getting tough! Read More

Fantasy owners are given a break from deciding on Westbrook with the Eagles on a bye. However, first round picks Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald and DeAngelo Williams have fantasy managers hoping their replacements have nice outings.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – It might not be flashy, but Tennessee has been susceptible against the pass and Sims-Walker is emerging as a nice target.

Sit: Eli Manning, New York Giants – Ok now I’m not benching him over any QB, but I’m not expecting huge fantasy totals from Eli this week. He is on the road at arrowhead with an inexperienced group of receivers.

Squat and Pray: Shaun Hill, San Francisco 49ers – If Hill is a consideration for your lineup this week you are dealing with some injuries or a bye week. The match up looks awfully nice for Hill but it’s equally nice for the running game.

RB

Start: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – Chad Henne has a full week of practice under his belt, but the Dolphins still have ample reason to employ the wildcat this week.

Sit: Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – He’s been scrappy in posting nice totals thus far but the Vikes run defense is superb and one of the two remaining teams that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Squat and Pray: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – The Texans have given up more rushing yards than any other team, including 7 scores. Just hope that Michael Bush doesn’t vulture the few touchdown opportunities Oakland gets.

WR

Start: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – The injury status of Kevin Smith should give Mathew Stafford and the Lions more reason to look Johnson’s way and the Bears don’t have anyone to cover him.

Sit: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers – I will be extremely surprised if the Chargers do not center their game plan on stopping Holmes. A banged up backfield and the return of Merriman to the lineup should have Roethlisberger under pressure all day.

Squat and Pray: Randy Moss, New England Patriots – starting receivers against the Ravens defense is normally not a great idea, but if Baltimore’s offense continues to put points on the board, you don’t want Moss on your bench in a shootout situation.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Dustin Keller, New York Jets – The Jets will have to throw and Keller will be the target of plenty of Mark Sanchez passes. Red zone looks make him one of the better plays at TE this week.

Sit: Denver Broncos Defense – The defense is improved but they do not match up well against Dallas. With a mammoth offensive line, the Cowboys should be able to plow straight ahead Sunday negating Denver’s fleet-footed defenders.

Squat and Pray: Dan Carpenter, Miami Dolphins – The weather is nice in South Florida and a conservative run-orientated offense could stall a few times providing Carpenter with a couple of FGs.

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Week 3 Recap:

QB

Start: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – 156 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Sit: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – 247 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

S and P: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – 183 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

The shootout that never was translated into weak fantasy totals in Buffalo including Edwards’ paltry effort. Chicago’s turnovers prevented them from ever establishing a lead in the game. Ultimately, Cutler was asked to get the job done for the Bears again and in the end he walked away from Seattle with fine totals. Palmer was able to escape with the win, but his fantasy output was modest at best. Bad week for me at the QB position.

RB

Start: Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – 42 rush yards, 1 rec, 6 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – 45 rush yards, 2 rec, 3 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – 117 rush yards, 5 rec, 46 rec yards, 0 TD

Portis’ lousy day against the Lions has me baffled. An injured running back with Portis’ skills should be able to produce something against Detroit. Washington is in trouble. McFadden is having trouble getting it going with in inept QB. Jackson’s day was about what you should expect: nice yardage with no touchdowns.

WR

Start: Mario Manningham, New York Giants – 4 rec, 55 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – 5 rec, 67 rec yards, 1 TD

S and P: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City – Inactive

Manninghamg was targeted 7 times, but the Bucs were so bad the Giants didn’t even need to use the long ball. Two words on Marshall, “wrong again.” Shortly after I posted, Bowe’s status for the weekend was uncertain. Yet it was par for the course on my picks this week.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Bengals Defense – 20 Points Allowed 1 Sack, 1 Int, 1 TD

Sit: Rian Lindell, Buffalo Bills – 0 FG, 1 XP

S and P: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers – 5 rec, 20 rec yards, 0 TD

The Bengals defense cashed in by returning their lone Roethlisberger interception for a touchdown in the third quarter. Woohoo, I was right about the kicker! Lindell never attempted a FG. Miller had 6 targets but didn’t find the end zone. He’ll probably get more love in coming weeks after Sweed’s drops but that doesn’t change his output from last week.

NFL GAMES WEEK 4

Bye: Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, and Carolina Panthers

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -- 1 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns -- 1 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans -- 1 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts -- 1 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars -- 1 p.m.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs -- 1 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots -- 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins -- 1 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins -- 4:05 p.m.
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints -- 4:05 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos -- 4:15 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers -- 4:15 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers -- 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings -- 8:20 p.m.

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