The NFC North QBs are an interesting crop for fantasy owners to analyze this season. Whether this field of passers will lead to more wins on the field isn’t what I want to talk about though. Can you win a fantasy football league title with an NFC North QB? This division has almost every “type” of signal caller you can find in the NFL and fantasy football. Let’s take a closer look…“Hanging around…Hanging around…Kids got alligator blood.”
Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings - This guy has the ruggedness of Wranglers denim but how many pairs of jeans hold up for 19 years? Sure the guy is an all-time NFL great who put up over 3400 yards of passing in New York last year. But the guy has single handedly turned sports journalism upside down.
Take away the name and then look at what “Joe Quarterback” brings to your fantasy football team. He is on the down slope of his career, playing in a run-first offense. His crop of receivers has never been to a single Pro Bowl and his top wide out has never eclipsed 1000 yards in a single season. Did I mention a run first offense? How well will all those interceptions play in a ball control offensive scheme?
Only five teams attempted fewer passes than the Vikings last season. In fact, Minnesota passed the ball on just under 45% of their plays from scrimmage in 2008. “Joe Quarterback” wouldn’t rate very high on many draft boards so don’t be fooled by drafting the name. If Joe Montana wouldn’t have won you a fantasy football championship in 1994 with the Chiefs what makes you think Brett Favre can in 2009?
“You can't lose what you don't put in the middle…But you can’t win much either.”
Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Detroit drafted Matthew Stafford first overall this season to be their QB of the future. First year head coach Jim Schwatrz will ultimately decide when exactly “the future” will occur. Until then it will be popular topic in blogs and newspapers all pre-season. Regardless, what should make the Lions QB job interesting to any fantasy football manager is simply: Calvin Johnson.
One of the game’s rising stars is also one of the best targets available to any quarterback in the entire NFL. In 2008, Detroit’s mess of quarterbacks mustered twelve touchdown passes and 78 receptions to Johnson. As long as Johnson is lining up on the outside, the man under center has the ability to throw a TD pass.
Due to the cloud of uncertainty over who will start and for how long, one or both of these quarterbacks will be discounted heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. Consequently, both Detroit signal callers are long shots that deserve consideration as a backup on your fantasy football squad-especially in leagues that use deeper rosters.
“When the money is gone, time to move on.”
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – The Packers made a decision last off-season to move on from the Brett Favre era. For those fantasy owners who did the same and invested in his replacement, Aaron Rodgers, you were rewarded handsomely. Rodgers has matured to become the class of NFC North quarterbacks while earning his first trip to the Pro Bowl last season. A healthier, hungrier and more experienced offense surrounding him, Rodgers figures to remain amongst fantasy football’s best passers in 2009.
In 2008, Green Bay scored the fifth most points in the NFL, additionally the Pack placed in the league’s top 10 in Passing Yards/Game. Rodgers should be able to maintain his 2:1 TD:INT ratio and figures to flirt with 30 passing TDs.
However, if you choose to make Rodgers the starting quarterback for your fantasy football team you are gambling in the fantasy football playoffs. The Packers final five games are vs. BAL, at CHI, at PIT, vs. SEA, at ARI. I’d strongly suggest keeping an open mind and put him on the trading block later in the NFL season, perhaps following his Week 12 tilt against the Lions.
“Listen, here's the thing…If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker”
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Time will tell if the Bears, Broncos or Mr. Cutler himself, were suckered into this deal and whether or not Cutler is truly a franchise quarterback, however the fantasy implications resulting from this trade are truly difficult to determine. There are not too many cases of a 4500-yard passer being plugged into a run-orientated offense. After the likes of Brady, Brees and Manning are off the board, Cutler has been one of the better quarterbacks to target in fantasy football. Now in a new offense, what is Cutler’s fantasy value heading into the 2009 NFL season? Some think it’s better than that of Rodgers’.
The short answer would be to simply state there is far too much risk and uncertainty in the player to merit the price tag he is likely to command in a draft or auction. The longer answer would include breaking down the stats and making an educated guess as to how much the addition of Cutler will help the Bears and your fantasy football team.
The Bears were among the five worst teams in the NFL on passing plays of over 20 yards in 2008, yet Cutler was among the five best quarterbacks in that statistic. A year ago, Chicago’s vertical passing game finished in the upper half of the NFL in pass attempts; even so only Drew Brees put more pigskins in the air than Cutler in 2008. The Bears’ team leader in receptions was it’s running back and its #1 wide receiver heading into this year’s training camp managed to find the end zone only three times while netting 665 yards. Fantasy owners will have to decide for themselves how much the Bears offense will deflate Cutler’s numbers and how much will Jay Cutler inflate the Bears passing attack. I will have another post exclusively on Cutler later this pre-season to help you decide!
The Final Line - Handicapping the NFC North QBs for the 2009 fantasy football season.
Aaron Rodgers 3-1
Jay Cutler 5-1
Brett Favre 18-1
Matthew Stafford 18-1
Daunte Culpepper 25-1
Sage Rosenfels 25-1
Tarvaris Jackson 80-1
Matt Flynn 100-1
Caleb Hanie 200-1
Rounders (1998) Starring: Matt Damon, Edward Norton, John Turturro, John Malkovich, Famke Janssen and Melina Kanakaredes. Directed by John Dahl.
Pictures Movie Review More Info
Rounders is one of my favorite movies and not because I spent the majority of my sophomore year at college playing poker. The characters are great while the plot reveals the cultural influence of poker in modern society. The lessons and experiences portrayed in Rounders and the game of poker itself can also correlate to your fantasy team.
Fantasy football is the Cadillac of fantasy sports and each season injuries and breakout performances create “swings” for every fantasy football manager. All the time you spend on the waiver wire, responding to trade offers with Christy Turlington references and making those tough lineup decisions may feel like your grinding your way to a fantasy title. It’s a unique journey every year and if things break right you just might find yourself with three stacks of high society. And if they break the wrong way there is always rolled up aces over kings!
On a side note, I toyed with the idea of putting audio clips into this post. However, I was concerned it would make loading the article take longer and didn’t necessarily feel it was worthwhile. What do you think? Should I include audio in future Fantasy Football & A Movie posts? You can post your answers in the comments section along with any other opinions on this post. Thanks for stopping by!
That concludes this week's BOXCAR Football presentation of Fantasy Football & A Movie featuring Rounders!
