I jot down a few things at the end of every fantasy season, a good habit to get into if you like to be competitive. I write down things I might want to keep in mind for next year. One of the things that stood out from the my list this year was:
“Changing of the guard at RB, young guys everywhere.”An array of reasons contributed to a lot of younger guys seeing time and raising their fantasy stock. And what’s crazier is that there are even more guys who were limited during the 2008 NFL season while gaining a year of seasoning. This is truly a changing of the guard at fantasy football’s most coveted position.
Young guys have limited track records but the sophomores should now be more adjusted to the length and amount of work that goes into playing a full slate of games in an NFL season. And this year’s class is chocked full of interesting fantasy talent.
Top Of The Class
1. Matt Forte – A top-five pick in most fantasy football leagues, Forte is a durable back that will be fed the ball in a run-first offense. His receptions should come down this year with Cutler more adept at getting the ball to the WRs and TEs.
2. Steve Slaton – In the final seven games of the season, Slaton averaged 23 touches per game. Houston also went 5-2 during that stretch. Coincidence? Like the Texans, fantasy owners will lean on Slaton as a low-end RB1 fantasy football leagues with 12+ teams.
I like both of these guys but I’ll gladly take Slaton as the better value. Cutler and the Bears still need to show they can throw AND CATCH the ball downfield to prevent defenses from stacking up against the run and counting on Orlando Pace to stay healthy is risky.
Room To Grow
3. Chris Johnson – I have to admit, that Thanksgiving Day game last year stuck to my stomach like a plate full of turkey and dressing but Johnson was flat out faster than everyone on the field last year and I don't see any reason to think he'll lose a step in 2009. What was even more impressive was seeing his patience develop so quickly, timing his burst to hit the holes.
4. Darren McFadden – He showed enough in 2008 to make the coaching staff realize they need to make him a bigger part of the offense. He’ll still split time with Fargas and might not start the season as the offical starter, but he’s a young playmaker who should get twice as many touches in 2009.
5. Kevin Smith – Detroit’s season may have been lackluster but it wasn’t Smith’s fault. Detroit has a new coaching staff in place and should get better play from the QB position, two keys to providing Smith with double digit TDs in 2009.
Smith might be the best pick of these three because of consistency. McFadden is the upside play here, while Johnson’s worth will come down to touchdowns…Johnson’s big play ability isn’t going to disappear in 2009 so he’s my favorite of the three.
Breakout Darkhorses
6. Ray Rice – McGahee isn’t the featured back in Baltimore. Rice is still young and learning the offense, but Cam Cameron is still the OC. I think his 54 targets in 2008 goes up, making Rice a great value in PPR leagues.7. Rashard Mendenhall – I don’t have any decent numbers to write down to help convince you this guy will be good in 2009. All I can tell you is that the Steelers struggled mightily close to the goal last season and Mendenhall is the answer. His carries will be limited but 500 yards and a bunch of TDs makes for a pretty good RB3.
I wouldn’t consider these guys true sleepers because the upside isn’t tremendous but both should be put into positions to prosper this season. A mini breakout to become a RB3 is possible with each of these guys. In PPR leagues the choice is Rice, in TD formats Mendenhall gets the nod.
And The Rest
8. Jonathan Stewart – Williams turned in such a fine second half last season, I’m worried Stewart, coming off an Achilles injury, will be able to garner enough touches to be consistently productive in 2009. At this point, I’m only grabbing him as a handcuff to Williams.
9. Felix Jones – He surprised me last season. But a healthy Marion Barber and Tashard Choice’s presence will limit his touches in 2009 making him more of a RB4 in 2009.
10. Tim Hightower – The situation around him should have a negative impact on his fantasy usefulness. A RB in a passing offense with a first round pick for competition and he actually lost weight despite being run down at the end of the season.
11. Tashard Choice – He’s fighting for touches and will need an injury to make him more than waiver wire fodder or a bye week replacement in deeper leagues.
12. Jamaal Charles – Nothing special here. If LJ goes down, the Chiefs will probably end up passing more, not handing it to Charles.
13. Michael Bush – He’s technically a sophomore after missing his true rookie season. He’s long removed from his Louisville days and shouldn’t be rostered in all but the deepest of leagues.
14. Peyton Hillis – Denver is loaded at the RB position and touches will be scarce.
Stewart could prove me wrong. He certainly has the talent but his counterpart, DeAngelo Williams, has proved me wrong on multiple occasions as well. Par for the course I suppose. If I had to choose from this list, I’m selecting Felix Jones. FYI Jones returned kicks last year and some leagues count return yards!
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