Regardless of your league scoring, your fantasy QB has a great impact on your overall success. Unless you play in a league that awards six points per passing TD and doesn’t deduct points for interceptions, filling your QB slot is all about value vs. opportunity cost. Note that I mentioned league scoring. Always start any rankings, evaluations or trade offers by referencing your league’s scoring. With that said, let's take a look at three potential value picks for your fantasy football team. Read More
When you select a QB, be it through auction or draft, it’s essential to find the best value without passing up an option at another position. Overpaying for a quarterback can single-handedly cost you a fantasy football title. One of the first places I look for deflated prices and prime QB value is amongst those returning from injury. Do your homework, get the facts and follow the updates throughout Training Camp on guys who are hungry to get back on the football field. Coming into the 2009 fantasy season, three guys standout as potential value picks: Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer and Matt Hasselbeck. All three have proven capable of delivering quality stats expected of a starting fantasy QB yet all three have deflated value due to injury concerns. Would I invest in any them? Let’s take a closer look.
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
The oft-injured Houston starter has only injuries preventing him from being a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Schaub averaged 250 passing yards over his first seven games and threw 10 TDs against 8 INTs. These stats made him more of a “match up QB,” or a quarterback you’d use in a QB platoon, starting them against favorable match ups. However, Schaub returned from injury in Week 14 and finished the regular season averaging 320 yards and posting 5 TDs over the final four games of the season. Even when you factor in his 400 yard performance skewing the average a bit these numbers are more in line with a top 12 fantasy QB.
The guys surrounding Matt Schaub in Houston add to his appeal as a fantasy starter. Andre Johnson is a proven veteran target and Kevin Walter netted 60 receptions and 8 TDs in a secondary role. Running back Steve Slaton is also a threat in the passing game after recording 50 receptions as a rookie in 2008. Furthermore, only four tight ends caught more passes than Owen Daniels last season.
Schaub needs to stay healthy, but the guy can play and is still improving as an NFL passer. Keep in mind 2008 was only his second year starting. Fantasy quarterbacks with his level of production, no matter the chances of being truncated by injuries, cannot be ignored. I consider Schaub a “snake-pick” because in many leagues his price will fall so low he will surprise fantasy owners and if you do take him you will need to take some extra precautions like securing another QB. That and he is ideal for those drafting at the turn, going QB/QB to ensure you can pair Schaubber with another quality option.
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
Palmer’s elbow cost him 2008 but he says it’s healthy and I believe him because the Bengals are going into the season with popular 2008 waiver wire add J. T. O’Sullivan as their primary backup to the former Trojan. If you were worried about his recent time away from the field, it was simply bronchitis. Nothing arm or elbow related, he’s back on the field now.
Palmer is one of the best QBs in the NFL, but the offense is going to be re-tooled for 2009. Housh left for the left coast, but the Bengals brought in a guy I like to have a great season in Lavernaues Coles. Opposite him, is the infamous circus that is Chad Ochocinco. Together they form a very capable, veteran duo.
Palmer and the Bengals are going to scale back some of the passing this year while they try to better establish the run in 2009. This might hurt his overall passing yardage but keeping defenses honest should lead to a better TD: INT ratio. Overall, I like Palmer to be good but not great this season. His upside is not 4,000 and 30 anymore, but he’s plenty capable of putting together a fine fantasy season. Are there really 12 better options at quarterback? So he plays the Steelers and Titans four times, is that really enough reason to pass on him if you are one of the last teams without a QB?
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle passing attack was ravaged by injuries in 2008. The numbers just don’t add value to the conversation. In 2007, Hasselbeck just missed the 4,000 and 30 mark. At 34, he isn’t quite finished, but that won’t prevent fantasy owners from devaluing him entering the 2009 NFL season.
I do think Hasselbeck’s injury woes will have some lasting affects on him this season, but I also think a healthier team around him will make him a suitable QB to own. Housh was added and Carlson is ready to get more involved in the passing attack. Burleson and Branch are fine secondary targets. Hasselbeck shouldn’t be counted on as an everyday starter for 2009, but he is someone to consider depending on your other quarterback. The difference between Hasselbeck and the previous QBs mentioned is his decline in production will make him a decent backup fantasy QB, as opposed to being a starter like Palmer and Schaub. Throw in the injury risk and you don’t have a valuable fantasy asset on your roster. You have a guy that may start only once for you during the season.
Some closing thoughts
I typically do not pay for QBs. I go into a draft or auction with a set limit and stick to it. I believe it’s better to get good value than to pay market value at the QB position (I do stray from this strategy once you enter a league starting 2 quarterbacks). More often than not, an owner investing in one of the top six quarterbacks will not bother adding a decent back up QB. Adding more risk to a high draft pick is something I try to avoid. Instead, getting two guys from the 8-14 range reduces the risk of each pick and also comes at a far greater value. In other words, take on a little less production from your QB slot and reduce the risk of having an injury severely damage your chances of winning a fantasy championship. To better leverage the situation, do your homework and look at the schedules for each QB, not just the bye weeks.
Sometimes you have less control over the value of a particular player. You can’t stop Bob from taking your guy two rounds before you were willing to take him. And if Paul decides he wants to build his team around Aaron Rodgers he’s going to pony more dollars at auction than you are. It’s all about value at the QB position. Don’t get sucked in! Know the value of all quarterbacks heading into a draft or auction and patiently wait for the quarterback that falls in your lap.
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