Two weeks into the season there are some surprises. Taking a closer look at some of those surprises reveals whether fantasy owners should buy into the early season numbers or cast them aside as statistical outliers. Increasing your awareness heading into week three just might help position yourself for the rest of the season. Read More I want to start out this post by directing your attention to a great post by FFToday's T.J. Thomas, that not only provides fantasy owners with "touch" stats but also illustrates the merit of "touches" to a fantasy football owner. I'm going to highlight a couple of things from T.J.'s The All-Out Blitz - Vol. 2 here but I encourage everyone here to give it a read.
Touches equal opportunity in fantasy football. It's that simple. Fill your roster with the most opportunity to produce and you will produce more points more often than not. However, knowing the quality of these touches is even more important. Notice Marques Colston and Vincent Jackson have averaged 7 touches a game thus far. Hardly, the beefy numbers of Carolina's Smith or New England's Moss, but these receivers are posting great numbers and finding the end zone. An uptick in touches would greatly enhance their value. On the other hand, players who are posting nice fantasy totals AND are amongst those receiving more touches are vulnerable to seeing their fantasy production decline if the touches do not remain consistent. As we head into week three keep your list of touch and target leaders handy because having a third game of data becomes the first meaningful statistical reference guide of the 2009 fantasy football season!
For example, I am going to be keying in on Dallas Clark. I had him rated as the #1 TE in PPR leagues heading into the season. Anthony Gonzalez' injury aside, Clark saw his touches increase from 6 to 8 last week. The difference between averaging 6 and 8 touches per game is roughly 30 receptions and 250 yards on the season for a TE. Clark's week three tally is not going to cement his future production, but it will provide a more accurate reflection of his fantasy potential moving forward. If he ends week three with 5 touches I'm far more likely to forget about his performance on Monday night. However, a final line of 8 or more touches for Clark in week 3 and I'm feeling confident he will deliver to the expectations I placed on him. You can apply this same logic and reasoning to most players. That's why week three has a little more meaning than the first couple of weeks. It's evulation week so everyone grab their pen and pencils, there is homework for week 4! Remember what T.J. said to open his article, "Once is an accident, twice is a pattern, three times is a trend."
I thought I'd include some of my buy low targets to finish off this post. I'll be coming out with something more detailed post soon, but for now this will have to do.
Guys I am Buying Low:
#1 LenDale White - Fantasy owners are dropping this guy already! Seriously, you mean to tell me a guy with double digit touchdown potential is being cast aside like stale potato chips? The weather will get colder, sloppier and ultimately more condusive for running. The low carries total can be attributed to playing the Steelers and not being Chris Johnson last week. Did you really expect Jeff Fisher to take Chris Johnson out after he dismantled the Texans? White's carried will increase and Tennessee's red zone trips will increase.
#2 Darren Sproles - How can this guy be a buy low? Because tons of fantasy owners out there still beleive Ladanian Tomlinson is an elite fantasy RB who is only a week away from returning. Sproles is a flex option every week regardless of of LT's injury status. And I'm willing to bet Tomlinson isn't at full health come fantasy playoff time.
#3 Joe Flacco - Matt Ryan got most of the love last season, but Flacco is showing some serious signs of development. This guy is going to put up decent fantasy production in bad weeks and good production against favorable opponents. An inexpensive backup who could end up saving your season is a sound investment in the early weeks of a fantasy football year.
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