When determining a player's fantasy value, I place a lot of emphasis on opportunity. If a player isn't on the field, touching the ball or getting the ball thrown to him his chances to produce for your fantasy squad are more limited. Over the past two years, "targets" has become a staple stat category amongst fanasty football enthusiasts. Rarely an actual category in fantasy football and not found on the box scores, "targets" refer to the number of passes thrown to a particular NFL player. Read MoreIf you want to gain a competitive edge in your fantasy league, you should start looking at all the data available on targets. Of course, if you have been playing in a competitive fantasy football league you are probably already familiar with this statistic. During the season, following weekly targets is easy and straight forward. But how do you use target data in the pre-season to help better evaluate NFL players prior to the season? Here are some things to consider when factoring in target data while preparing your 2009 fantasy football rankings and auction values.
Strictly going by last year's numbers isn't enough.
Ok, so we all need a place to start and taking a gander at the 2008 data is logical. CBSSports' Jamey Eisenberg provides the 2008 target totals by position and even includes Drops and Red Zone data. However, we can not just assume the data will repeat itself during the 2009 NFL season. Brandon Marshall led the NFL in targets in 2008 (despite playing in only 15 games) and 2007 but do you really think he will be atop the leaders with Shannahan gone and Orton under center in 2009? Use the 2008 data as a starting point only.
3-year averages offer more useful information as well as yearly increases. Take a look at how the data changes when changes to the offense are made (such as a new head coach, new quarterback, etc). I'll provide some of my own analysis at the end of this post but if you are seeking out target data from previous years to conduct your own research, FFToday.com offers everything you'll need (just scroll down and find it on the right side).
Ok so you have the data in front of you, now what?
When you look at the target data from the previous three NFL seasons for wide recievers you can start to see useful trends. For instance when you gather up the wideouts with at least 50 targets in each season you will see roughly the same amount of receivers with roughly the same target splits year-to-year. Below I have listed the data.
Year ( # of WRs with 50 targets-75 targets-100-120-150)
2008 (82-57-37-23-11)
2007 (85-60-35-22-9)
2006 (82-57-37-23-9)
This shows us that each year the distribution of targets at the wide receiver postition remains fairly unchanged. There is likely to be 80-90 WRs with at least 50 targets in 2009 and roughly 10 of them will eclipse 150 targets. Another peice of useful data is the average number of targets from each year's crop of WRs at least 50 balls thrown their way. In each of the past three years, this number has been 98 targets. I find this number rather useful because it tells me that the pass catchers with the most chances for fantasy production will have at least 98 targets during the 2009 NFL season.
So why go through a fancier, longer way of getting to 98 when anyone with half a brain knows more targets equals more opportunity? My rationale is simply that it serves as a starting point to determine fantasy relevant receivers, including potential sleepers and busts.
As we get ready for the 09 NFL football season, receivers like Anthony Gonzalez, Mark Bradley and Devin Hester are being dubbed potential 2009 fantasy breakout players. And why not? Gonzalez and Bradley are slated to open the season as starters in pass-friendly offenses while Hester is Chicago's default number one receiver. Does the target data support these potential fantasy sleepers?
Looking at the target data from the candidates above, none eclipsed the 98 mark in 2008. However they did manage to be on the end of at least 50 pass attempts last year and increased their target total from the previous season by at least 20. Thus, we can compare other WRs with similar totals from previous years and see how they performed the following season.
First, let's look most recently at the wideouts who would have fallen in this category heading into the 2008 fantasy football season.
Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2007 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2006:
2007 2006 2008
Nate Burleson 95 37 9
Roydell Williams 94 20 DNP
Josh Reed 87 48 80
Patrick Crayton 81 48 70
Vincent Jackson 80 56 101
Dennis Northcutt 73 45 68
Drew Carter 74 50 DNP
Brad Smith 66 14 19
Keary Colbert 67 12 27
Andre' Davis 63 7 28
Derek Hagan 58 37 6
Jeff Webb 57 4 13
Lance Moore 50 3 113
*Omitted due to injury: David Patten, Justin Gage, Joe Jurevicius, Brandon Stokely, Robert Ferguson, Jabar Gaffney
Among this group, Vincent Jackson and Lance Moore were the only ones to "pan out." Nate Burleson might have joined them, but an injury ruined his season. The rest of these guys spent more time rotting on the waiver wire than on a fantasy football roster. Perhaps the data going into 2007 will be different?
Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2006 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2005:
2006 2005 2007
Reggie Williams 92 63 60
Arnaz Battle 86 54 104
Chris Henry 76 50 46
Troy Williamson 76 52 38
Alvis Whitted 63 26 DNP
Bobby Wade 58 29 83
Vincent Jackson 56 8 80
Drew Carter 50 15 74
Omitted Due To Injury: Ronald Curry, Peerless Price
In this group Arnaz Battle and Vincent Jackson offered owners the best return on investment. However, more than half of these players failed to make the jump into fantasy football relevance. So what can we deduce as we set out on our quests for a 2009 fantasy football league title? First we need to take a look at which current players increased their target total and amassed 50 targets in 2008 but failed to hit the 98 mark.
Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2008 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2007:
2008 2007
Greg Camarillo 88 10
Steve Smith 82 14
Ted Guinn jr. 93 71
Devin Hester 92 38
Anthony Gonzalez 79 52
Nate Washington 78 55
Domenik Hixon 72 1
Rashied Davis 67 32
Mark Bradley 63 17
Brandon Jones 62 34
Michael Clayton (TB) 61 40
Jason Avant 57 33
Koren Robinson 58 34
Hank Baskett 51 22
If trends continue, two or maybe even three of the above players will garner more targets in 2009 and find themselves on the majority of fantasy rosters. However, none of the previous players heading into 2007 or 2008 who made this list AND panned out became top-end fantasy options.
Oftentimes, the pre-season hype around these types of players creates a blurred reality of what these players are likely to yield in the upcoming fantasy football season. So which players from this crop have the best chances of helping you throughout the 2009 fantasy football campaign?
As I mentioned earlier Bradley is moving into a nice situation opposite Bowe in Kansas City, but I'm not convinced he will be too much better in 2009. Bowe will be featured and Bradley won't be sneaking up anyone this year. Although Cassel seemingly did a good job of spreading the ball around in New England last year, the Chiefs don't have nearly the amount of talented pass catchers as that of the 2008 Patriots.Devin Hester is not a #1 WR and his hands will be exposed with a QB like Cutler rocketing the ball around the field. His targets will go up by default because the Bears will have to throw the ball to someone and Hester will see the field more in 2009. Hester may be in the best position to return WR3 type numbers but when you factor in the hype and what kind of investment you will need to make to retain his services, I'm not buying the former 'Cane.
Avant and Baskett are fighting for playing time let alone, targets. Davis and Hixon have shown they can be productive, but each looks destined to be #3 or #4 on the depth chart. That dwindles things down to five guys who I think have the best shot.
Could teammates, Greg Camarillo and Ted Guinn Jr. both improve upon 2008? I'm pretty sure one of them will, rewarding fantasy owners in the process. My money is on Camarillo, who ammased 83 targets in only 11 games a year ago. If he averaged 5 targets during the five games he missed, he would have become one of the 25 most targeted NFL receivers in 2008.
I like Nate Washington, but his new team runs and his new QB doesn't take a ton of shots down the field. Washington will continue to be inconsistent and isn't likely to see a big jump in targets.
With Plaxico out of town, the Giants are forced to rely on lesser proven pass catchers this year. The G-men also RB Derrick Ward from the backfield. Eli Manning will be asked to do a little more this year, especially on third downs. Enter Steve Smith, a player who has the hands and ability to catch Eli's not-always-on-target passes. Sinorice Moss will create buzz out of the slot and Hixon will stretch the field, leaving Smith in the perfect position to see more balls thrown his way. I still like Camarillo more, but Steve Smith would be my second choice from this list.
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