Some of the biggest disappointments during the 2008 NFL season resided in AFC West backfields. Fantasy owners want to know: Is it time to abandon Ladanian Tomlinson? Is there too much pressure on Oakland’s Darren McFadden? The AFC West offers some intriguing running back options for the 2009 fantasy football season. Read MoreLast week I covered the NFC North quarterbacks only to find out Brett Favre is staying retired-at least for now. I’m not going to go back and redo the Vikings portion of that article, but I will make a few brief comments here before we delve into the AFC backfield situation.
Rosenfels and Jackson are now in a true competition for the starting job and neither one of them have given Brad Childress much confidence. They both have their warts, but the most effective passer should win the job out of training camp. I think that guy is Rosenfels and I still think Favre winds up under center for Minnesota before the season is over. With that out of the way, let’s turn our attention on this week’s featured presentation…
Andy Dufresne - “You know what the Mexicans say about the Pacific?”
Red - “No.”
Andy Dufresne – “They say it has no memory. That's where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory.”
Oakland has offered fantasy owners very little in recent years. I’m not sure what the Mexicans say about the Raiders, but my friend and life-long Raider fan wishes he had no memory of last year. But he does think there is light at the end of the tunnel, albeit a long tunnel.
The Raiders possess several interesting value picks heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. The best of the lot is Darren McFadden, now entering his second full season. The 4th pick of the 2008 NFL draft finished his rookie campaign with 784 total yards and 4 touchdowns. The Raiders have a talented young running back? That’s not what makes him the most interesting fantasy topic coming out of Oakland this year.
Justin Fargas will start the season as the team’s primary running back in 2009. Tom Cable is more confident in Fargas’ ability to handle a full workload. Considering McFadden touched the ball more than 10 times in only 6 games a year ago I can understand Cable’s opinion. But factoring in Oakland’s dismal performances over recent years, I don’t understand why you would draft a player #4 overall and not believe he is capable of carrying the load in his second season. Perhaps Cable does think he can do it, but doesn’t want to put any extra pressure on the kid throughout training camp or disrupt relations with the guy who has salvaged the Raider backfield in recent seasons.
McFadden will be starting at some point in 2009 regardless of when Fargas gets injured. And when he does, Oakland’s RBBC will merely shift, rather than go away. I like the former Razorback because he is a dual threat that could be getting 18+ touches by week 8. That would likely make him a decent RB2 coming out of Oakland’s bye week, just in time to battle for a spot in your fantasy playoffs. He’ll be a nice flex option until then and will come at the price of a RB3.
“I must admit I didn't think much of Andy first time I laid eyes on him; looked like a stiff breeze would blow him over. That was my first impression of the man.” – Red
Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith are not going to take over the starting job from Larry Johnson. There are a variety of potential reasons for the pathetic campaign Johnson put together in 2008. Not one of them makes as much sense as the guy just not being interested. Remember when Priest Holmes was winning fantasy football championships across the nation? Johnson had a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. He did it to the tune of 20 touchdowns in 2005, his first season carrying the ball over 300 times.
In 2008 we were wondering what happened to the old LJ just about the time when we realized how bad the Chiefs were. Do yourself a favor and throw Johnson’s 2008 in the trash. Don’t even look at it when putting together your rankings. Why? The Chiefs were not a very good team last year and had to mold their offense around the strengths of a third string quarterback. It was a mess of a season and LJ wasn’t motivated.
Johnson is heading into 2009 with something to prove again and it might just be his career. With only 1243 carries, he’s not your typical 30-year-old running back. Matt Cassel is now the QB and perhaps most importantly, Herm Edwards isn’t on the sidelines. Edwards may have liked to run, but he did it so much the defenses knew it too. Johnson is healthier and so is the offense. A stiff breeze isn’t blowing this guy over in 2009. Just don’t get overzealous and expect Johnson to anchor your fantasy backfield. Instead consider him a strong RB2 with upside to explode for three scores once or twice during the year.
“Lord! It's a miracle! Man up and vanished like a fart in the wind!” – Warden
What happened to fantasy football beast LT, only 12 touchdowns? The guy didn’t completely vanish like a fart in the wind last year, but for Tomlinson’s standards, he certainly failed to deliver the numbers we’ve come to expect. Despite eclipsing 1500 total yards for the eighth consecutive year, Tomlinson’s YPC (Yards Per Carry) dipped below 4.0 for the first time since 2004. As a result, Ladanian lost his grip on the top spot in fantasy football.
Tomlinson may be headed down, but he is starting a lot higher than most. The recent declines of former elite fantasy running backs Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James can be reviewed when forecasting LT’s fantasy production in 2009. Alexander and James both saw their YPC dip below 4.0 in 2006. The following years, Alexander (who turned 30 that season) had a lack luster 2007, while James (who turned 29) actually improved from the prior year.
Tomlinson (turned 30 in June) has toted the rock over 500 more times (2659 carries) than James (2155 carries) had entering the 2007 season. Tomlinson started showing the times of wear and tear last season, failing to touch the ball at least 20 times in five contests while finishing the regular season with less than 300 carries for the first time in his career. Tomlinson is a very special player, but I’m not expecting a rebound in 2009 and will be avoiding him in drafts and auctions.
“I have to remind myself that some birds aren't meant to be caged. Their feathers are just too bright. And when they fly away, the part of you that knows it was a sin to lock them up DOES rejoice” – Red
I’m going to go out on a limb and state that Mike Shanahan has been the source of over a billion headaches endured by fantasy football owners. Denver’s backfield has always been relevant, but most fantasy owners treated the situation comparable to spending the next 17 weekends with your in-laws. So can we rejoice now that Shanny isn’t pulling the strings of fantasy owners?
Not quite, Denver enters 2009 employing a plethora of running backs. Not too mention a new head coach who spent the last eight seasons under Bill Belicheck so don’t get rid of the Advil just yet.
You will have to monitor Denver’s training camp to see how the backfield starts to unfold, but rookie Knowshon Moreno is expected to be the best fantasy option in 2009. It appeared Moreno’s team held him back in college so I’m looking forward to seeing him “escape” Georgia and go up against NFL defenses. He may not be given enough touches in his first year to become a quality RB2 but I expect him to be a solid flex option, especially when rosters tighten up during the bye weeks.
Shawshank Redemption (1994) Starring: Tim Robbins, Morgan Freeman and Bob Gunton. Directed by: Lee Tomahori
Pictures Movie Review More Info
I don’t know if people just sympathize with Andy Dufresne or if the plot develops smoothly or if it’s the sound of Morgan Freeman’s voice narrating throughout the movie, but this film captures you. It’s interesting and entertaining. Even when you have a good idea of what is going to happen you just watching how it happens. Maybe that’s why I likened this movie to AFC West backfields in 2009.
We know Darren McFadden will be the guy before the end of the 2009 NFL season, but how is it going to play out? Will Fargas get hurt or will they be in a RBBC the whole way? What happens if McFadden and Fargas are hurt at the same time? Kansas City is re-tooling and LJ is motivated again but how will the other backs be used to compliment him? Then you head over to San Diego where the brightest star in the fantasy football universe isn’t so bright anymore. The one that you could count on to lead you home to a fantasy football title isn’t the guiding light it once was. Some fantasy owners will follow the fading start whilst others seek out the next twinkling star. Denver’s backfield is going to be a “mix” but what roles will each have and how will Moreno be used?
How will these backfields redeem themselves after letting fantasy owners down in 2009? Well, it’s really just a matter of time and pressure now isn’t it?
That concludes this edition of Fantasy Football & A Movie! BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!
