As we approach the final days of draft season I'm moving a few guys up my board. The biggest factor in my late bump is touchdowns. Sure there are performance leagues and PPR leagues but in the end, touchdowns are fantasy gold. Taking a look at the '09 fantasy football landscape I see fewer and fewer TD machines. Read More
Much of today's decrease in individual TD numbers can be attributed towards the RBBC. We haven't seen this much evolution in the individual running game since Mike Alstott was carrying defenders into the end zone. The game has changed and fantasy owners need to adapt.
Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson have huge potential, but I've been pushing them down in almost every draft over the past two weeks. I'm scared. Yep, that's right. I am absolutely scared of investing a top 15 pick in either of these two guys because as much as I love their chances of churning out quality yards, I can't get excited about their chances of finding pay dirt consistently. Maybe I'm just looking for reasons to justify the fact I haven't been able to land one on any team thus far. Or maybe it's because waking up on Monday morning to find 150 total yards and 0 TDs makes my coffee taste a little bitter.
Have you ever eaten fish and had a small bone stab the roof of your mouth or tongue? It puts a damper on your whole meal and makes you scan your plate and remaining fish for more tiny harpoons. You might get the same feeling if you select a player with limited TD potential.
And so I'm torn walking the fine line between smart yardage plays and maulers almost certain to be injured as they are to score double digit TDs. I'm not talking about the choice between AP, MJD and Forte at the top of the draft. I'm talking about the second through fourth round guys that fill out the core of your fantasy squad.
I'm talking Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber.
(Now before I go on I should tell you that I am surrounded by Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants fans. I have no stake in the rivalry but I've heard enough about each team's prospects of winning the Super Bowl over the past month it got me thinking...)
I liked Marion Barber going into 2008. Notice I said liked not loved. I didn't get him in any league and watched injuries derail his season. In the process I saw talent from other Cowboy running backs, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. And now, sitting here only days away from NFL 09 I'm seeing more 2008 Giants in the 2009 Cowboys. I'm also seeing more 2008 Cowboys in the 2009 Giants. Yeah, I had to scratch my head too! Here me out here.
The Giants of 08 mauled opponents using a three-headed running attack coined "Earth, Wind and Fire." It allowed Eli Manning to better manage the game and took some of the pressure of having guys like Plaxico Burress absent from the huddles on Sunday. Fast forward to Dallas today and I see a dynamic set of tailbacks ready to explode this season. If you loved Brandon Jacobs in 2008, trade him in for a Marion Barber in 2009.
A month ago I was hesitant about the work share allowing any one player to be a consistent talent in my fantasy backfield. I just don't see how the Cowboys will be able to resist pounding the rock when they see what taking the pressure off Tony Romo can do in the passing game. A month later, I'm thinking there will be enough carries to go around. I'm pushing Romo, Roy Williams and Jason Witten down too. Over in New York, I see a team without a true #1 WR and a quarterback trying to be the face of the franchise. Big-time pressure without big-time talent. Derrick Ward is gone, lopping one of the head's off the monster that was a year ago. Now Jacobs, is always going to be labeled an injury risk. But they lost over 1000 yards rushing in Ward and have unproven talent in the passing game. The offense isn't going to move the ball as easily this year and that alone should translate into fewer TD opportunities.
Will similar injuries derail Jacobs and Bradshaw in 2009 the way they did Dallas' backfield after such a promising start in 2008? I don't know for sure but the odds are high enough to scare me away. I'm not buying Jacobs at his current value and would be looking to trade him while he still has value. The first hint of news suggesting he will miss action will send his fantasy stock down for the rest of the season even if he only misses a single game.
Wade Phillips might not transform into Tom Coughlin anytime soon but don't be shocked if these two offenses trade places in fantasy football production.
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