If you receive my twitter updates you would know my computer was attacked over the weekend. The end result is that I still haven’t been able to completely clean everything and have lost a few things including all the progress I had on my 2009 fantasy football rankings. Needless to say this sets me back a bit.Nonetheless, I thought this week's Hobo Soup would be a good time to share my opinions on some of the guys I like and dislike heading into the NFL season. So here are my positional fantasy picks for likely rebounds, most underrated, most overrated, etc. as we approach the kickoff to the 2009 NFL season. Read More
Most Likely To Rebound
QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – I’m not expecting him to re-establish himself as a top-5 fantasy QB, but feel comfortable drafting him as my starter. Palmer’s injuries have made fantasy owners forget that he is still a great NFL QB and he has enough talent around him to put together a useful season in a balanced offense.
RB Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs – Another guy I like entering the 2009 NFL season is LJ. The guy has raw talent and if there was ever a year you could really see the motivation Johnson desperately needs to be productive, it is now. Johnson doesn’t have the same mileage on the tires of other backs his age and hasn’t lost his ability to get the ball into the end zone.
WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints – Colston may not close in on 100 receptions like he did in 2007 but 80+ is realistic. He is the top receiving option in a pass-heavy offense with one of the game’s elite passers, Dree Brees, throwing him the ball. Pierre Thomas’s emergence and the presence of Reggie Bush will also prevent defenses from regularly keying in Colston. Expect a rebound into the top-10 WRs with top-5 within reach.
TE Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams – Ok so this old-timer isn’t going to be in discussions about the best fantasy football TE in 2009, but he is an above average pass-catcher that shouldn’t be overlooked in deeper leagues. The Rams will be less than stellar in the passing game but they have to throw the ball to someone. If he can remain healthy a final line of 500-600 yards and 5-6 TDs is realistic considering he should get 5+ targets a game, further illustrating the true depth at the position this year.
Most Underrated
QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – I am not a huge fan of him and loathe Dick Jauron but right now I think Edwards is being vastly underrated. Edwards has more to work with this year with Jackson and Lynch providing a nice duo rushing and Terrell Owens taking pressure off of Lee Evans. Parrish is healthy again and gives them nice production as a wideout and kick returner. Trent Edwards might be the perfect QB2 if you choose to wait on a starter.
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but the Steelers’ RBBC should do a better job at keeping everyone healthy while giving each RB a more defined role in the offense, collectively taking the pressure off any one guy to perform. Mendenhall is in a great position to put up quality RB3 numbers and with moderate injury concerns with Moore and Parker the Illini product has quality upside.
QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – I am not a huge fan of him and loathe Dick Jauron but right now I think Edwards is being vastly underrated. Edwards has more to work with this year with Jackson and Lynch providing a nice duo rushing and Terrell Owens taking pressure off of Lee Evans. Parrish is healthy again and gives them nice production as a wideout and kick returner. Trent Edwards might be the perfect QB2 if you choose to wait on a starter.
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but the Steelers’ RBBC should do a better job at keeping everyone healthy while giving each RB a more defined role in the offense, collectively taking the pressure off any one guy to perform. Mendenhall is in a great position to put up quality RB3 numbers and with moderate injury concerns with Moore and Parker the Illini product has quality upside.
WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – I talked about Jackson previously in my targets article but he bears more notice in 2009. He has steadily progressed in both opportunity and production in each year of his career. San Diego will have to rely less on LT this year and with Antonio Gates showing his age, Jackson might be the next best offensive fantasy weapon on their roster.TE Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – Celek will be a steal at just about any point he is likely to be drafted. Defenses will have an even tougher time keying in on players in Philly’s pass-friendly fantasy attack. McNabb has always been able to find the TE and HC Andy Reid has never been afraid to use the TE. I wouldn’t be shocked if Celek finished the season ahead of Tony Gonzalez.
Most Overrated
QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Most veteran fantasy cohorts know he is worth more in real life than in fantasy but for me it’s more about the philosophy of the offense he runs limiting his fantasy potential The Steelers do not want to throw the ball to win football games. Instead, they just want to throw enough to win. Why else do you think Big Ben takes so many hits trying to keep plays alive? He’s just not in a position to succeed as a fantasy football quarterback, limiting his upside.
RB Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – Count me in the group that feels LT is not going to deliver a 1200+ yard, RB1 type of season. I’ve touched on his workload previously and feel Norv Turner will be better able and more inclined to let Phillip Rivers attack defenses through the air in 2009. In the end, I believe Tomlinson will deliver numbers closer to a RB2 and chances are slim you’ll have a chance to get him that cheap.
WR Chad Ochincinco, Cincinnati Bengals – Here’s a guy that has been undervalued as often as he has been overvalued. Ochocinco may like to be in the spotlight but the truth is he has lost a little speed and Coles might be the better deep threat. Palmer’s return will lead to better stats this season but not enough to justify making him one of the first WR2’s off the board.
TE Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints – The track record speaks for itself. Talented and tough, Shockey often leaves fantasy owners lacking the production they expected when they drafted him. Too many injuries and an attitude that can flare up (note his recent skirmish with Houston) attach too much risk for any fantasy owner to take at such a deep position.
Best Risk/Reward Pick
QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – His running game has abandoned him and he’s on the older side, but few QBs possess the deadly fantasy combination of elite skill and friendly offensive system to produce premium quarterback production as McNabb. With additions to the passing game and offensive line, only injuries and age can stop McNabb from finishing amongst the best QBs in fantasy football. Not a sure bet due to his injury risk, but one worth taking in my estimate.
RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – I’ve touted McFadden in recent weeks and still believe the future is bright for the second-year running back out of Arkansas in 2009. Already expected to assume a bigger workload this season; the injuries to the receiving corps should yield more touches in early weeks than previously planned. The risk of taking McFadden lies in injuries and his ability to withstand the added workload he will see this NFL season.
WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills – An afterthought in many leagues because he hasn’t produced a solid fantasy season since 2006, Lee is part of arguably the best offense the Bills have assembled since Peerless Price was a fantasy commodity. Evans will benefit from having Terrell Owens suiting up on the other side and Trent Edwards is entering his third year at the helm of the offense.TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers – No offense will be as different to fantasy owners than the 49ers will be in 2009. The red and gold are going to lineup each week and “hit you in the mouth” and that style of play will benefit TE Vernon Davis. Despite being told to leave the field during a game last season, new HC Mike Singletary will need an effective passing game for Shaun Hill to manage. Davis has the size and athleticism to illicit far more than the 49 targets he received a year ago.
Favorite Sleepers
QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Jacksonville disappointed in 2008 and the bad taste it left in Garrard’s mouth has prompted the Jags QB to get in better shape over the off-season. The addition of veteran Torry Holt should help the Jaguars on third down and sustain drives. Add in Garrard’s rushing ability and I think you have a QB that will out-produce his draft position, especially in league that score only four points per passing TD.RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – The more I look at what Smith was able to do last year, the more excited I get about his chances to further develop in 2009. A sound bet to eclipse 1200 total yards and 10 TDs, Smith is a great RB2 that can be had in the late-third round.
WR Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins – PPR leaguers should put a big fat star next to Camarillo’s name on draft day. His final line in 2008 doesn’t represent the type of player Camarillo was evolving into with Chad Pennington throwing him the ball. Similar to other wideouts like Bernard Berrian, Donald Driver and Torry Holt, Camarillo averaged over 7 targets per game in 2008 as one of his QB’s favorite options. A full season of health should make him a nice WR3.
TE Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers – The Packers offense and passing game in particular did quite well in 2008 without Lee contributing much because he was needed to help out an inexperienced offensive line. Expect Green Bay to allow Lee to run down the field more in 2009, resulting in numbers closer to his 2007 line of 48 receptions, 575 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Backup To Have Fantasy Impact
QB Chris Simms, Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton is mediocre at best and isn’t the best option to get the ball into Brandon Marshall’s hands. Simms is capable and once given the chance will wrangle away the starting job for good. Keeper league owners should bump him up their boards.
RB Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers – As noted above, I lack the faith in LT as others. Regardless of whether Tomlinson goes down with injuries Sproles has earned more carries and showed he can be productive backing up the legendary LT.WR Steve Breaston, Arizona Cardinals – Not only will Breaston be involved as the third WR in the Arizona offense but an injury to either one of the starting Cardinal wideouts presents further upside to Breaston’s fantasy value.
TE Martellus Bennett, Dallas Cowboys – Dallas’ passing attack will feature the TE position quite a bit, while employing plenty of two-TE sets. Witten will draw plenty of double-teams to give Bennett room to work. An increased workload for the former Aggie should allow him to build on last season’s four TDs even if Witten is healthy throughout the entire season.
BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!
